Preview: South Alabama Travels To Pasadena To Face UCLA
Kickoff: Saturday, September 17, 1PM Central
Venue: Rose Bowl Stadium, Pasadena, CA
TV/Streaming: PAC12 Network
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
#5 Jersey: James Jackson (wearing #50 due to position jersey number rules)
Thunderjags Twitter: @USAThunderjags
South Alabama is 2-0 to start the season for the second consecutive year. It also makes the second time since 2011 they’ve started the season undefeated to start the season.
The Jaguars completely dominated the first half against Central Michigan. Just looking at the 38-24 final score, it may not show how dominant the Jags actually were in the game.
They won the game on physicality and they beat them at their own game.
The offensive line probably made the most improvement from game one to game two. Coach Kane Wommack and his staff have played a number of offensive linemen over the first two games. They’re not only gaining game-time reps, they are building depth and experience with those players.
Pair that more talented and experienced offensive line with the running backs that Coach Wommack and his staff have assembled and you have a recipe for winning. Look at where the South Alabama program ranks nationally in time of possession and you can see the direct effects of that. They are second in the nation with an average time of possession of 37:00 per game. You don’t get that kind of time of possession without good offensive line play, efficient running back play, and staying on schedule offensively.
Next up is a trip to the west coast, Los Angeles to be exact, to square off against the UCLA Bruins in the famed Rose Bowl.
UCLA
Chip Kelly is in his fifth season at the helm of the UCLA football program. In that time he has a 20-25 record. His first season started off with five consecutive losses before finishing with a 3-9 record. Then a 4-8 record in 2019, a 3-4 record in the covid shortened 2020 season, then finally an 8-4 record last year however their appearance in the Holiday Bowl would not come to pass as the game was canceled just hours before the game due to Covid protocols within the UCLA program.
Kelly is most notably remembered for this four year stint as Oregon’s head coach from 2009-2012, he went 46-7 during that stretch with an appearance in a BCS bowl game each season, but a loss in the BCS National Championship Game to Auburn in 2011. He was hired as head coach for the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFL for three seasons (26-21 overall record) and then one season as the offensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers (2-14).
He is known for his prolific offenses utilizing the hurry up, no huddle with the zone-read option. He was one of the pioneers of this style of offense in FBS football. At it’s core this type of offense uses “zone” blocking up front with the quarterback giving or keeping the ball based on his “read” of the defensive end.
The trouble this offense presented way having to spend most of your defensive game plan on staying ready to stop two plays in one, because they can be used at any point during the game and you have to be prepared at all times. Spending all that time on that scheming would limit the capabilities of putting in pressure plays, which led to very vanilla defenses. When the defenses were too vanilla, they knew where the defenders were going to be and it made the rest of their playbook very dangerous.
What the Chip Kelly offense basically boiled down to was an innovative scheme utilizing speed, both player speed and pace of play, to take advantage of opponents’ mistakes and wear them out.
Now with that long exposition about Kelly over with, we can actually get to UCLA talk.
The Bruins have opened the season with two non-conference games so far. Both have not provided much opposition to them. They have a 45-17 win over Bowling Green and 45-7 win over Alabama State to their credit.
Offense
Through two games the Bruins have rolled up quite a bit of stats on the stats sheet. They have 1,111 total yards of offense, 622 passing yards and 489 rushing yards. They are averaging 555.5 total yards of offense, 311 passing yards and 244.5 rushing yards per game. They have only turned the ball over three times, two interceptions and a lost fumble.
They are converting 50% of their 3rd down attempts (14-of-28) and 66% of their 4th down attempts (2-of-3). They are scoring 83% of the time in the red zone (10-of-12) and are scoring a touchdown 67% of the time (8-of-12).
The Bruins leading passer is Dorian Thompson-Robinson, he is 41-of-54 for 399 yards, three touchdowns and an interception on the season. Ethan Garbers came in against Alabama State when Dorian exited with an injury. On the season Garbers is 17-of-22 for 223 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
Allen Kazmeir is the leading receiver with 14 catches, 115 yards and a touchdown. Keegan Jones and Jake Bobo have very similar numbers, both have six catches for 87 and 79 yards respectively but Jones has a touchdown on his resume. There are five other receivers with at least four catches on the season.
Zach Charbonnet leads the ground game with 111 yards on 21 carries with a touchdown, however there’s some mystery around him as he did not play against Alabama State for undisclosed reasons.
Dorian is next with 87 rushing yards on 7 carries with two touchdowns. Garbers only has 7 rushing yards on two carries but both went for touchdowns. Three other backs have touchdowns on the season as well, including Keegan Jones.
After the game, Kelly was very coy about giving any updates on the status of Dorian and Charbonnet. When asked he simply said, “unavailable” in response. He was almost as secretive when asked if Charbonnet would be available to play this Saturday.
In Charbonnet’s absence, true freshman T.J. Harden led them with 56 yards and a touchdown on seven carries against Alabama State.
Defense
The Bruins defense is only allowing 236 total offensive yards, 174 passing yards and 62 rushing yards on average through their first two games under their new defensive coordinator. They have generated four turnovers on the season, two interceptions and recovered two fumbles while forcing five total fumbles.
Opponents are 1-of-2 when in the red zone, and none have been touchdowns.
Kenny Churchwell III leads the team with 10 total tackles, eight of them solo, with a tackle for loss and a pass breakup. However Churchwell will have to sit out the first half against the Jags due to a targeting penalty last week. Coach Kelly appealed it but he was denied.
Grayson Murphy and Laiatu Latu both lead the team with two sacks each.
The Hornets found success against the Bruins secondary in the first half. They had open receivers to throw to as they put up 177 yards of offense by the midway mark of the second quarter. That was more offense than Bowling Green managed the entire game the week before.
The Bruins tightened up in the second half with two interceptions and only allowing 46 passing yards after halftime.
Special Teams
UCLA opened the season on very shaky ground in the special teams department. A blocked punt returned for a touchdown to open the scoring. A muffed punt at their 11 yard line led to a chip shot field goal. Kickers missed two of their three field goal attempts.
Nicholas Barr-Mira has punted three times with an average of 33.7 yards per punt, two fair catches and one downed inside the 20. Chase Barry has one punt to his record for 39 yards.
Barr-Mira is 2-of-4 on the season on field goals. His longest is 24 yards.
South Alabama
The Jags came home with another road win against a MAC team to begin the season. Last year they needed a last minute field goal, this time they dominated their opponent from early on.
Road wins have been rare over the last several years. Particularly so when air travel was involved. Since joining as a FBS team the Jags are a mere 10-40 in road games.
The Jags will get another chance at a road win after flying across the country this weekend. This time against a Power 5 opponent.
What stood out about the Jags against Central Michigan was their physicality. They were the more physical team on the field, which says a lot because CMU is known as a very physical team.
Offense
The offensive line got after the Chippewas from the start. They opened running lanes for La’Damian Webb and pass protected well for Carter Bradley the whole game.
The Jags offense is now averaging 505 total yards of offense, 343 passing yards and 162 rushing yards per game through the first two games of the 2022 season.
La’Damian Webb has yet to crack 100 yards in a game, but he has been oh so very close. He’s averaging 94.5 yards per game. He has 38 carries for 189 yards and four touchdowns. One of those was a 30 yarder against the Chippewas last weekend where he was barely touched at the line of scrimmage.
Webb is that typical running back where he seems to never lets the defenders hit his square, they always seem to have to try to bring him down from an angle.
Terrion Avery has added 53 yards on 16 carries as his backup.
Bradley is 43-of-67 for 614 yards and six touchdowns. However he threw his first interception of the season on an under thrown pass in the third quarter.
Jalen Wayne continues his march up the Jaguar history books in career receptions (6th) and receiving yards (6th). He has 13 catches on the season for 196 yards and three touchdowns. Ten of those receptions came against Central Michigan.
Caullin Lacy has 169 receiving yards on 11 catches. Devin Voisin has six catches for 61 yards and a touchdown. True freshman Braylon McReynolds has five catches for 55 yards and a touchdown.
The Jags offense will have to keep up their pace against the Bruins. The Jags enter with the 32nd ranked scoring offense in FBS (43 points per game) but the Bruins are 17th (45 ppg).
Defense
Speaking of rankings, the Jaguar defense ranks 17th in total defense, 38th in scoring defense, 14th in rushing defense, 20th in 3rd down conversion percentage defense, 43rd in 1st down defense in the nation.
The defense is allowing an average of 251.5 total yards of offense, 181.5 passing yards and 70 rushing yards per game. Opposing running backs are rushing for only 2.6 yards per carry on average.
Opponents have only converted 7-of-28 of their 3rd down attempts (25%) and only 1-of-6 of their 4th down attempts.
Quentin Wilfawn’s name has been call quite often this season. He leads the team with 15 total tackles, 11 of them solo, with 1.5 tackles for loss and a qb hurry. Jaden Voisin is the only other Jag with double digit tackles at 11 with five of them solo with two tackles for loss and a fumble recovery.
AJ DeShazor is the only Jag with an interception so far on the season. James Miller, Wy’Kevious Thomas, and CJ Rias are the only Jags with sacks on the season, they each have one.
Special Teams
Jack Brooks continues to show why he’s on the Ray Guy watch list, he is averaging 42.8 yards per punt with one fair catch, two kicks of over 50 yards and five of his 11 punts have been downed inside the opponents 20.
Diego Guajardo is a perfect 3-for-3 on the season with a long of 48 yards in the field goal department. He has missed on one of his extra point attempts, this past Saturday he had one bang against the right upright, then hit the left upright before bouncing back into the field of play.
Caullin Lacy has 5 punt returns for 56 yards, an average of 11.2 yards per punt return, his longest was 38 yards against Nicholls to open the season.
The only notable change in the depth chart for this week is that Omni Wells has moved to the kick returner over McReynolds. However McReynolds continues to be the backup for both kick and punt return specialists.
Keys to the Game
Offensive Line Play
The Jags offensive line has played well. The first two weeks of the season they have been physical and controlled the line of scrimmage. They’ve been the driving force to allow the offense to roll up over 500 yards of offense the first two games of the season.
This week is another step up in competition.
UCLA is a Power 5 school in the PAC 12. Across their four man defensive front, they average 281.75 lbs per player. While the Jaguar offensive line is bigger on average across the line, their advantage is less than it was last week against Central Michigan.
If they play like they have been the last two week, the Jags offense will have a chance to match the prolific scoring that UCLA has put up the first two weeks of the season.
Sound Defense
When we discussed UCLA and Chip Kelly’s offense, we laid out how his offensive scheme takes advantage of the defense. While from 2009-2012 when he was at Oregon, it was new and caught lots of teams off guard. Now that the same scheme he helped pioneer at Oregon is in more widespread by lots of teams nationwide, defenses are more prepared for it in general.
But even then, Kelly isn’t using the same scheme he ran at Oregon either. He’s not running the all-gas, no brake style. He will utilize the hurry up, no huddle at opportune times but it’s not their over arching style.
What UCLA has going for them is their clout to recruit bigger and better talent. But as we saw last week across the college football landscape, the big teams don’t always win against those Group of 5 guys. Notre Dame, Texas A&M, and Nebraska all fell to Sun Belt teams last weekend.
Either way, the Jags defense needs to stick to their fundamentals and not fall for “eye candy”. If the defense plays fundamentally sound and gives the offense a ball with good field position and generates some turnovers, the Jags have a chance.
Penalties & Turnovers
With an average of 90 yards per game of penalty yards, the Jags really need to clean that up to play with a Power 5 school. Especially when those penalties set you back on offense or extend opponents drives on defense.
Both sides of the ball want to stay ahead of the down and distance.
I don’t want to jinx the team. Through two games the offense has only turned the ball over once. But what I’d like to see is the defense generating some more turnovers. Last season we generated 15 interceptions and recovered 10 fumbles. This week would be a very opportune time to start that trend again.
Prediction
It’s going to be a bit more difficult for South Alabama to sneak up on UCLA after the shockwaves sent out last weekend by fellow Sun Belt Conference members. Big shout outs to Appalachian State, Marshall, and Georgia Southern.
The Jags will still treat it as a business trip and UCLA may be more focused in than what they could have been. But maybe they’ll think its just round two against Alabama State and that will catch them off guard.
The spread has been steady all week favoring the Bruins by 15.5 points with an over/under of 60.5 points. I actually like what Odds Shark has, they believe the game will be under and the Jags will cover. They predict a 29-26 Bruins win.
I’ll also take the Jags to cover the spread but I feel the Bruins are going to pull this one out much to my disdain, 28-24.
USA is holding a free game watch party at the Mitchell Center with concessions available from 12pm – 6pm. Also the Alumni are having a watch party at Nexus Cinema Dining, tickets are required for that one.
Go Jags!