Preview: West Division Showdown Against ULM
Kickoff: Saturday, October 26, 4pm
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
Thunderjags on X (formerly known as Twitter): @USAThunderjags
#5 Jersey: TBA
Homecoming is a special tradition that dates back to the early 20th century. A number of schools claim they started the tradition as early at 1909, but a few sources have given the honor to the University of Missouri in 1911 when they faced Kansas and encouraged alumni to attend.
What does this have to do with South Alabama? Nothing really, other than this is homecoming week for the Jags.
Schools have started scheduling “easy” games for homecoming if they have the ability. With Sun Belt schools, they are…encouraged… to schedule all of their non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season. With schools who adhere to that scheduling “suggestion” that leaves scheduling your homecoming game against a conference foe.
That’s where we are now.
South Alabama (3-4, 2-1 Sun Belt Conference) will host their annual homecoming game this Saturday with the ULM Warhawks (5-1, 3-0 SBC).
Yes, you read that right! A Saturday game at Hancock Whitney Stadium! The Jags last played a Saturday home game in the season opener on August 31st.
Scheduling a conference opponent as your homecoming foe can be bulletin board material. Which ULM head coach Bryant Vincent has already alluded to this in his weekly press conference. They also enter the game after a full bye week, they last played on October 12th.
The Warhawks are out to a 5-1 start on the season for the first time ever as a FBS team and the first since 1987 when they played in Division I-AA (now known as FCS). Their 3-0 start in conference play is their first since 2017.
ULM has made a very quick turnaround since the hiring of Vincent. They were picked to finish last in the conference in the SBC Preseason poll but are currently tied atop the SBC West Division standings with Louisiana-Lafayette. Two of their three conference wins have been against teams that aren’t very good. Troy, which we previewed last week, has been plagued by injuries, loss of talent, and a coaching change. Last time out they defeated a downtrodden and dejected Southern Miss team who just fired their head coach after their latest loss. But in between those two games they defeated a James Madison team that has also seen a coaching change after last season’s magical run.
USA enters the game after a long rest from their Tuesday night win over Troy. The 25-9 victory broke a six-game losing streak to the in-state rival and hopefully propels them toward a strong finish down the stretch. They need at least three wins in their final five games to get bowl eligible for the third consecutive season, which would be another milestone for the rather young program.
South Alabama has an opportunity to knock off one of the top teams in the conference and the western division. While the Jags don’t completely control their destiny after the loss to Arkansas State, they have the remainder of the western division on their schedule to round out the season. If they win out, they still need a little help with Arkansas State.
But for that scenario to play out, they need to win on Saturday.
Louisiana-Monroe
Bryant Vincent was named the head coach in December of 2023 after ULM had only won 10 games in the previous three seasons under Tery Bowden.
Vincent has the Warhawks sitting at 5-1 and just one game away from bowl eligibility, which would be the first time since the 2018 season the Warhawks has won six games in a season.
Vincent was the offensive coordinator at the University of New Mexico for the 2023 season. He helped lead the Lobos to a top-20 ranking in red zone offense and rushing offense.
Prior to New Mexico, he was at UAB from 2018 to 2022 where he served as the offensive coordinator and interim head coach in 2022 when Bill Clark retired due to health reasons. He led the Blazers to a 7-6 record and a win the 2022 Bahamas Bowl. UAB’s offense averaged 30.1 points per game and 438.2 yards per game, which was in the top 35 of the nation. Also, during his tenure at UAB the Blazers set a FBS-program record for wins in a season (11-3), as they went 48-27 overall in his six seasons there. In the 2018 season alone the offense set new records for total points (418), total touchdowns (53), rushing touchdowns (32), total yards (5,680), and rushing yards (2,818).
Prior to UAB, Vincent was offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at South Alabama. He helped lead the Jags to the 2016 Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl and record setting quarterback Dallas Davis, who at the time, threw for a school record 2,706 yards.
Before USA for the second time, he was hired at UAB as the offensive coordinator for a season in 2014 before the program was shut down. Before that he was at USA as tight ends coach in 2011 and then quarterbacks in 2012.
He was an accomplished high school football coach before jumping ranks to the college game. He was the 5A coach of the year at Greenville in 2006 and then went 39-13 at Spanish Fort High School from 2007-2010 winning a state title in his final season with the Toros.
Offense
In the press release announcing the finalization of Vincent’s staff it had Jamaal Fobbs as offensive coordinator, whoever it’s not on his official title. Before ULM he was assistant head coach and offensive coordinator at Mile College. Before that he spent six seasons as the running backs coach for Tulane.
His experience building Tulane’s rushing attack into the top rush game in the AAC in 2020 with an average of 217.1 yards per game and 32 touchdowns (2nd nationally).
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 22.8 |
| Total Offense | 279.8 |
| Passing Offense | 123.5 |
| Rushing Offense | 156.3 |
| Time of Possession | 31:23 |
| Penalty Yards | 56.5 |
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 29 of 80 (36.3%) |
| 4th Downs | 6 of 8 (75%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 14 of 14 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 8 of 14 |
| Penalties – Yards | 47 – 339 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 3 – 1 |
Aidan Armenta is the Warhawks leading passer going 37 of 62 (59.7%) for 481 yards, 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. General Booty is 28 of 53 (52.8%) for 241 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.
Jake Godfrey is the teams leading receiver by yardage with 191 on 13 catches with a touchdown. Davon Wells is the teams leading pass catcher with 16 receptions for 108 yards and a touchdown. Three other receivers each have caught one touchdown each.
Ahmad Hardy leads the team rushing with 500 yards on 99 carries with 6 touchdowns. James Jones has 172 yards on 43 carries with a touchdown.
Defense
Earnest Hill came to ULM from UAB after two seasons at UAB as the Stars/Nickels coach. Before UAB he was the running backs coach at South Alabama during the 2021 season.
Prior to USA he was head coach at McGill-Toolen Catholic High School where he went 40-8 overall with a state championship game appearance in his first season at the helm.
Through the first half of the season the defense has played very strong. If you take out the 51-3 loss to #1 Texas, the Warhawks are allowing an average of 13.8 points per game and will be an interesting matchup against the South Alabama offense.
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 20 |
| Total Offense | 341.3 |
| Passing Offense | 189.8 |
| Rushing Offense | 151.5 |
| Time of Possession | 28:37 |
| Penalty Yards | 66.2 |
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 30 of 79 (38%) |
| 4th Downs | 4 of 15 (26.7%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 16 of 17 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 10 of 17 |
| Penalties – Yards | 56 – 397 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 8 – 4 |
Carl Glass Jr leads the team in stops with 48, 20 solo, with a half sack, two quarterback hurries, and a forced fumble. Wydett Williams Jr leads the team in interceptions with 3 but is also second on the team with 47 total stops, 20 solo, with a sack, two pass breakups and a fumble recovery.
Billy Pullen leads the team with 4 sacks. Tristan Shorter is right behind him with 3 sacks.
Kevontay Wells leads the Warhawks with 7.5 tackles for loss with Pullen in line behind him with 5.5 TFLs.
Special Teams
Makenzie Ryan is averaging 39.6 yards per punt on his 31 kicks, with 15 downed inside the 20, nine fair catches, 3 touchbacks and 2 kicks of 50+ with his longest going 59 yards.
Max Larson is 8-of-10 on field goals with both of his misses coming from 40+ yards via blocks. His season long is 47 yards. He is also 14-of-15 on extra point attempts.
Davon Wells is averaging 7.4 yards per punt return across his 5 returns.
South Alabama
Thankfully the Jags had a long rest after the last game to prepare for this week. It also allowed them extra time to let the emotional high to wear off from the rivalry game win over Troy. Also to allow some extra time for players to heal from a very physical game.
While the defense played very good against Troy, the offense struggled against what is still a very strong defensive unit for the Trojans. The offensive line and the Troy defensive front were battling hard every down and made the Jags earn every yard they gained.
Defensively the Jags held the Trojans under 100 yards of total offense until late in the third quarter.
Offense
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 34.9 |
| Total Offense | 445 |
| Passing Offense | 248.6 |
| Rushing Offense | 196.4 |
| Time of Possession | 31:56 |
| Penalty Yards | 70.6 |
Gio Lopez is 110-for-170 (64.7%) for 1,464 yards, 13 touchdowns and 1 interception in the six games he’s played this season.
Jamaal Pritchett leads the team with 39 catches for 573 yards and 6 touchdowns. Jeremiah Webb is coming up the list and is second on the team in receiving yards with 253 on 15 catches with 2 touchdowns. Devin Voisin has 224 yards on 19 catches.
Fluff Bothwell leads the team with 461 yards on 68 carries with 6 touchdowns. Kentrel Bullock has 364 yards on 67 carries with three touchdowns. Gio is third on the team with 325 yards on 52 carries with three touchdowns.
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 36 of 89 (40.5%) |
| 4th Downs | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 27 of 32 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 19 of 32 |
| Penalties – Yards | 57 – 494 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 6 – 2 |
Defense
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 24.6 |
| Total Offense | 403.7 |
| Passing Offense | 285.4 |
| Rushing Offense | 118.3 |
| Time of Possession | 28:04 |
| Penalty Yards | 52.6 |
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 36 of 92 (39.1%) |
| 4th Downs | 2 of 7 (28.6%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 21 of 26 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 12 of 26 |
| Penalties – Yards | 40 – 368 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 7 – 3 |
Blayne Myrick leads the defense with 51 total tops, 20 solo, with 4 TFLs, two pass breakups and a forced fumble. Jordan Scruggs is next with 36 total stops, 17 solo, with 2.5 TFLs, an interception and a pass breakup.
Jaden Voisin leads the team with three interceptions, and is tied for the career record at South Alabama. Lardarius Webb Jr has two interceptions. Scruggs and three other players have one interception each.
Courtney McBride Jr leads the team with 3 sacks. Tyler Thomas has two sacks.
Special Teams
Aleksi Pulkkinen is averaging 40.5 yards per kick across his 24 punts with 11 downed inside the 20, 10 fair caught and 1 kick of 50 yards.
Laith Marjan is 10-of-11 on the season with the only miss coming from a 52-yard attempt. His longest made attempt was from 49 yards. He is also 21-of-22 on extra point attempts.
Keys to the Game
Offensive Identity
The Jags offense needs to find its identity again. After putting up 135 points in the two games against Northwestern State and Appalachian State, the Jags are averaging only 17 points per game over their last three. Or if you want to toss aside the LSU game, the Jags are averaging 20.5 points per game over their last two outings against Sun Belt opponents.
Either way you stack it, their offense isn’t running with the same effectiveness as it did over the first few games of the season. Some of it can be blamed on injuries. Reed Buys, arguably the best offensive lineman, has missed some playing time. Gio Lopez suffered a turf toe injury in the season opener and sat out the second game. But that injury will continue to plague him the rest of the season until he can rest it for an extended amount of time.
The Warhawks defense has been a scrappy, stingy bunch and they will do whatever they can to disrupt the Jags offense and keep them off the scoreboard. So, they need to find what their identity going forward is going to be and quick.
Penalties
The Jags had 100 yards assessed in penalty yardage against the Trojans. There were only nine flags on them too. That’s a lot of yardage to give back. That’s over half of the Trojans offensive yardage total for the game in just penalties for the Jags.
The worst were the offensive procedure penalties that kept putting the Jags behind the down and distance schedule.
Cleaning up these issues with recurring procedure penalties need to be a high priority.
Stopping the Run
This is a strength of the Jags defense, but ULM’s offense is predicated on the run game. If they have problems stopping the run, it could be a long night for South Alabama.
But the linebacker corps, which was already thin, lost one of their most experienced players for the season last week. Gavin Forsha suffered a knee injury against Troy and sounds like he is out for the season.
How will this affect the defense? We’ll soon see.
Prediction
The Jags entered at a 7.5-point favorite and it’s been shown that my predictions against the spread with USA has not been the best. But let’s do this again.
ULM seems to be playing well but if you look closer at their schedule so far, you really don’t get a sense of the team. The Texas game went about as expected honestly. The overall record of their opponents so far is 17-24 with three opponents with only one win on their resumes and all three of them being wins over FCS programs.
The win over UAB was more satisfactory in a revenge storyline, but you cannot count it as a quality win when their record is 1-6 with their only win over FCS Alcorn State.
The quality win of the season so far is James Madison (5-2), who’s only other loss is Georgia Southern.
Similar to the last two wins, the Jags need to jump on the Warhawks early and force ULM to play from behind. Their offense really doesn’t lend itself to play from multi-score deficit. Their identity on offense is to run the ball and chew the clock. Coaches on both sides have been saying that possessions will be at a premium in the game.
So, a bonus Key to the Game will be turnovers. Both teams are good at forcing turnovers. The Jags are +9 for the season and ULM is +4. If possessions are at a premium as the coaches alluded to, a turnover that leads to points would be a huge advantage to the benefiting team.
I think the Jags win, but I don’t think they cover the 7.5.
Go Jags!
Preview: Battle For The Belt 2024
Kickoff: Tuesday, October 15, 6:30pm
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL
TV/Streaming: ESPN2
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
Thunderjags on X (formerly known as Twitter): @USAThunderjags
#5 Jersey: Fluff Bothwell
Battle for the Belt.
The yearly renewal of the in-state rivalry between South Alabama and Troy has been fairly one sided over the last few years but the animosity between the two remains as heated as ever. Troy has won the last six meetings between the two, including a 28-10 victory last season that saw Gio Lopez get his first career start as a true freshman.
The Jags (2-4, 1-1 Sun Belt Conference) and the Trojans (1-5, 0-2 SBC) both enter the game with something to prove and two-game losing streaks each. The Jags dropped a lopsided game at LSU then just over a week ago they lost a heart breaker at Arkansas State on a field goal with under a minute to go. Troy fell to Louisiana-Monroe and Texas State at home and see their path to a bowl game shrinking.
Both teams enter with a sense of urgency on top of the drive of playing in a rivalry game.
South Alabama hasn’t defeated Troy since the 19-8 defensive battle at Troy in 2017. Six consecutive losses. Steve Campbell went 0-3 and Kane Wommack went 0-3 in their coaching careers in the Battle for the Belt. Now head coach Major Applewhite gets to see how we fares in the rivalry.
The Jag seniors have never held the belt after a win while the Troy seniors have never had it leave their possession.
With two new head coaches, what does the 2024 renewals have in store for us?
Troy
The Trojans are led by first-year head coach Gerad Parker. He was selected to fill the position left vacant when Jon Sumrall left to take the head job at Tulane. He posting a 23-4 record overall and 16-2 in conference play during his time at Troy.
Parker previously served as offensive coordinator at Notre Dame for the 2023 season, where the Fighting Irish ranked 8th national averaging 39.1 points per game, 12th nationally in passing efficiency, and 29th in total offense. The Irish finished with a 9-3 record.
The 2022 season he was the tight ends coach at Notre Dame. Previous to Notre Dame, Parker served as the offensive coordinator at West Virginia for 2020-2021. Before that he had stops at Penn State, Duke, Purdue, Marshall, and UT Martin. He served as interim head coach for six games at Purdue in 2016.
The Trojans entered the season with only 11 seniors and only returned a few starters.
Offense
The offense is led by Sean Reagan who returns to Troy for his 11th season overall as a coach. He returns after a 5-year stint at West Virginia under former Troy head coach Neal Brown. Prior to his first stint at Troy, he served as a graduate assistant at Texas Tech.
In 2018 he was Co-offensive coordinator before leaving with Brown for West Virginia. He worked in varying capacities until he was named passing game coordinator for the 2023 season.
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 20.7 |
| Total Offense | 334.2 |
| Passing Offense | 202.3 |
| Rushing Offense | 131.8 |
| Time of Possession | 28:32 |
| Penalty Yards | 69 |
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 38-of-79 (48.1%) |
| 4th Downs | 3-of-7 (42.9%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 13 of 13 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 8 of 13 |
| Penalties – Yards | 44 – 414 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 8 – 3 |
Goose Crowder is the Trojans starting quarterback but he’s missed time due to injury, including their previous game against Louisiana-Monroe. He is 43 of 62 (69.4%) for 543 yards and 5 touchdowns in five games played. Tucker Kilcrease, who started last week against the Warhawks, is 26 of 44 (59.1%) for 383 yards and three touchdowns. Matthew Caldwell has seen action in four games and is 27 of 45 (60%) for 288 yards with a touchdown and an interception but he too was injured.
Devonte Ross leads the Trojans with 31 catches for 556 yards and 7 touchdowns. Peyton Higgins has 20 catches for 187 yards. Zeriah Beason has 13 catches for 172 yards.
Damien Taylor leads the Trojan rushing attack with 399 yards on 68 carries with 2 touchdowns. Gerald Green has 201 yards on 47 carries with a touchdown. Kilcrease is third on the team with 118 yards on 34 carries.
Defense
The defense is under the direction of Dontae Wright, who also comes to Troy from West Virginia where he coached safeties from 2020-23. Before WVU he coaches safeties at Western Michigan 2018-19.
He previously served as defensive coordinator at Tennessee Tech in 2017 and at Morehead State in 2015.
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 27.8 |
| Total Offense | 380.7 |
| Passing Offense | 198.8 |
| Rushing Offense | 181.8 |
| Time of Possession | 31:28 |
| Penalty Yards | 54.3 |
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 30-of-70 (42.9%) |
| 4th Downs | 2-of-6 (33.3%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 19 of 21 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 13 of 21 |
| Penalties – Yards | 35 – 326 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 4 – 1 |
Jordan Stringer (Jr LB) leads the team with 43 total stops, 20 solo, with 3 TFL’s, a sack and an interception. Justin Powe (Sr S) has 37 total stops, 23 solo, with a TFL and an interception.
Phillip Lee leads the team with 5 TFL’s. Six different players have one sack each as well as three different players have one interception each.
Special Teams
Robert Cole is averaging 40.4 yards per punt with 12 fair catches, 3 downed inside the 20, a touchback and a long of 59 yards.
Scott Taylor Renfroe is 7 of 8 on field goal attempts with a long of 49 yards and is also 13 of 14 on extra point attempts.
Ross leads the Trojans with an average of 36 yards per return across his 3 punt returns, with one returned for a touchdown.
South Alabama
The Jaguar offense and defense played out of character last time out against Arkansas State. The offense couldn’t move the ball consistently or well enough to score for most of the game. The defense, who played poorly over the first two games and LSU, played great holding the Red Wolves to only 18 points. Unfortunately, they couldn’t get a stop when it mattered most though. Arkansas State marched right down the field on their final drive to set up the game winning field goal.
But what plagued the Jags the most last week were penalties. When you are penalized 11 times for a total of 100 yards, it’s hard to win a game.
While South Alabama has a very favorable turnover margin (+6), their only turnover last week was an interception at a terrible time. The interception thrown by Gio Lopez was the first interception thrown on the season by any Jaguar quarterback. They have fumbled six times but only lost the ball twice. Meanwhile the defense has recovered three fumbles and picked off opposing quarterbacks six times.
Offense
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 36.5 |
| Total Offense | 466.2 |
| Passing Offense | 263.7 |
| Rushing Offense | 202.5 |
| Time of Possession | 31:16 |
| Penalty Yards | 65.7 |
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 31 of 74 (41.9%) |
| 4th Downs | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 24 of 28 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 19 of 28 |
| Penalties – Yards | 48 – 394 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 6 – 2 |
Gio Lopez is 94 of 149 (63.1%) for 1,306 yards, 12 touchdowns and one interception in five games. Bishop Davenport is 27 of 46 (58.7%) for 276 yards and a touchdown.
Jamaal Pritchett leads the receiving corps by a wide margin, he has almost 3x the catches as the next receiver on the team. He has 36 catches for 531 yards and 6 touchdowns. Devin Voisin has 18 catches for 221 yards. Jeremiah Webb has 12 catches for 224 yards and a touchdown. Anthony Eager has 6 catches for 122 yards and two touchdowns.
Fluff Bothwell leads the Jags with 408 rushing yards on 56 carries with 6 touchdowns. Kentrel Bullock has 326 yards on 52 carries with 3 touchdowns. Lopez has 258 yards on 41 carries with 2 touchdowns.
Defense
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 27.2 |
| Total Offense | 442.3 |
| Passing Offense | 310.3 |
| Rushing Offense | 132 |
| Time of Possession | 28:44 |
| Penalty Yards | 55.7 |
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 32 of 79 (40.5%) |
| 4th Downs | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 19 of 24 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 12 of 24 |
| Penalties – Yards | 31 – 283 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 6 – 3 |
Blayne Myrick paces the team with 50 total stops, 20 solo, with 4 Tackles for Loss, 2 pass breakups and a forced fumble. Jordan Scruggs is next in line with 30 total stops, 13 solo, with 2.5 TFL’s, and interception and a pass breakup.
Courtney McBride Jr and Tyler Thomas shared the lead with 2 sacks each.
Jaden Voisin leads the team with two interceptions. Scruggs, Amarion Fortenberry, Lardarius Webb Jr., and Chrystyile Caldwell have one pick each.
Special Teams
Aleksi Pulkkinen continues to be the team’s punter with an average of 41.2 yards per attempt across his 20 punts with 11 downed inside the 20 and 8 fair catches.
Laith Marjan is 7-of-8 on field goal attempts this season with a long of 49 yards and his only miss was from about 52 yards and has made 19 of his 20 extra point attempts.
Pritchett is averaging 24.5 yards per punt return including a 62-yard touchdown return against Northwestern Louisiana.
Keys to the Game
Injuries
The Jag offensive line dictate how the offense goes. Reed Buys missed about half or more of the Arkansas State game and the offense floundered outside of the two touchdown drives. It’s affected both the running and passing game.
It seemed fairly obvious that Gio Lopez was being affected by the turf toe some. He was moving around differently and was off on his deep throws.
With the additional time since the last game hopefully the Jags have been able to get a little rest and treatment so they can get back to closer to full strength again.
Quarterback Pressure
The defense was able to get plenty of pressure on App State’s quarterback but couldn’t generate much against LSU or Arkansas State. On the final drive by the Red Wolves they just couldn’t generate anything, and they got picked apart with the cushion they gave the receivers.
Troy has had plenty of injuries but the quarterback position has been affected a lot this season. In six games they have had to start three different signal callers due to injury. But no matter who is starting behind center, the Jags have to generate pressure.
Penalties
The Jags can’t beat themselves with penalties. They were flagged several times offensively for various infractions last game. Offensive penalties hurt you in two key ways: they put you behind the sticks and they rob you of momentum. The Jags had it 2nd and 10 at the ASU 11 yard line late in the game. They were then flagged for a false start and a hold over the next three plays which made it 3rd and 25 at the 26-yard line. Fortunately, Lopez was able to find Pritchett for a touchdown on the next play, but they didn’t make it any easier on themselves with those two penalties.
Cleaning up those penalties will be key this week. Also making sure they stay disciplined mentally heading into a rivalry game should be a focus for the players and coaches. They can’t allow themselves to lose focus and get drawn into committing penalties if they encounter any adversity or jawing back and forth.
Prediction
It’s dangerous to play a rival when they’re licking their wounds with their backs against the wall.
While Troy’s record is bad, South Alabama’s record isn’t much better. Both teams need a win if they want to get bowl eligible and they both are seeing the number of games remaining dwindling. Both teams could easily have two more wins than their current records reflect.
But if South Alabama plays up to their capabilities, they can beat anyone left of their schedule. It just depends which team shows up at Hancock Whitney Stadium Tuesday night.
It’s times to bring the belt back to Mobile.
The Jags are a 13.5-point favorite in the game. I think the Jags win, but I don’t think they cover. Jags win a close game to get the belt back against a Troy team that’ll pull out all the stops.
Go Jags!
Preview: South Alabama Travels To Arkansas State In West Division Showdown
Kickoff: Saturday, October 6, 6pm
Venue: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
Thunderjags on X (formerly known as Twitter): @USAThunderjags
#5 Jersey: TBA
South Alabama went to LSU last Saturday and was in the game for about three plays. Well, technically it was about nine plays, but it only took LSU three offensive snaps to really show where the game was going. On those three plays they gained 158 yards and put two touchdowns on the scoreboard.
The Jags (2-3, 1-0 Sun Belt) could never really mount a comeback after that as LSU (4-1) showed they had the bigger, stronger, faster team on Saturday night in Tiger Stadium.
The Jaguar offense protected the ball very well, the defense generated two turnovers to further bolster their turnover margin on the season to +7 after picking off Garrett Nussmeier twice in the contest. Neither Gio Lopez nor Bishop Davenport have thrown an interception this season, which makes the Jags one of only five schools who haven’t had a pass intercepted yet on the season.
Now that the Jags have concluded their non-conference slate, the focus is now on the remaining seven games that are all conference contests. Next up in Arkansas State (2-2, 0-0).
Arkansas State
The Red Wolves are led by fourth-year head coach Butch Jones. He holds a 13-28 record at ASU with a 6-18 conference record since taking over the program. The win total has improved each season under his leadership and led them to the Camellia Bowl last season (loss to Northern Illinois 21-19).
Over his 14 seasons as a head coach, Jones is 97-82 with previous stops at Central Michigan (2007-2009), Cincinnati (2010-2012), and Tennessee (2013-2017). He served as an offensive analyst and special assistant to the head coach at Alabama from 2018-2020.
Last season the Jags earned a hard-fought victory over the Red Wolves in Mobile when they needed to win two of the last three in order to get bowl eligible.
Arkansas State (2-2, 0-0 SBC) opened the season with a pair of close wins over FCS Central Arkansas and Tulsa but have lost their last two matchups at #16 Michigan (28-18) and at Iowa State (52-7).
So far this season the Red Wolves have a turnover margin of -2. They have given the ball away on 5 interceptions and lost four fumbles while the defense has taken the ball away from opponents six times by interception and only recovered one fumble.
Offense
The Red Wolves offense is under the direction of Keith Heckendorf in his sixth season at the position. He held the position for the two years before Jones took over. Under his guidance, the Red Wolves offense has put up lots of numbers through the air. True freshman Jaylen Raynor was the first true-freshman quarterback to be named SBC Freshman of the Year since 2007 and only the second in conference history. He finished with 2,543 yards passing with 17 touchdowns along with 380 yards rushing and five more touchdowns.
Raynor is 69-of-128 for 780 yards with 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions passing and is leading the rushing attack with 143 yards on 44 carries with 2 touchdowns. Timmy McClain is 11-of-18 for 132 yards and three touchdowns in limited action, mostly when Raynor was benched against Iowa State.
Corey Rucker leads the receiving corps with 265 yards on 17 catches with 2 touchdowns. Courtney Jackson has 150 yards on 14 catches. Reagan Ealy has 140 yards on 11 catches.
Behind Raynor is Zak Wallace who has 134 yards on 40 carries with 2 touchdowns. Freshman Devin Spencer has 80 yards on 16 carries in three games. Junior Ja’Quez Cross has 61 yards on 21 carries.
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 21.8 |
| Total Offense | 328.8 |
| Passing Offense | 228 |
| Rushing Offense | 100.8 |
| Time of Possession | 29:28 |
| Penalty Yards | 53 |
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 31-of-71 (43.7%) |
| 4th Downs | 3-of-5 (60%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 8-of-9 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 6-of-9 |
| Penalties – Yards | 21 – 212 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 8 – 4 |
Coming off a bye week, the Red Wolves have a pair of offensive linemen who are trending towards returning to the lineup. Coming into the season Arkansas State expected to have a better running game but it has yet to appear.
Will they debut a more improved run game when the Jaguars come to town?
Defense
Defensive coordinator Rob Harley is in his fourth season as the defensive play caller for the Red Wolves. Statistically the defense had improved along with the results in the win-loss column. Their red zone defense improved by 82 spots in the national rankings as well as ranking 20th in the nation with an average of 6.8 Tackles for Loss per game.
Marvin Ham (R-Sr LB) and Justin Parks (Sr-Safety) pace the defense with 31 total stops each. Ham has 10 solo with a quarterback hurry, 2.5 TFL’s and .5 sacks. Parks has 15 solo, 1.5 TFL’s, a pass breakup and a forced fumble. Trevian Thomas is third on the team with 29 stops, 16 solo.
Thomas and Dontay Joyner are team co-leaders with 2 interceptions each. Two other defenders have one interception each.
Jayden Jones leads the team with 4 TFLs and 2 sacks.
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 33.8 |
| Total Offense | 429.8 |
| Passing Offense | 195.8 |
| Rushing Offense | 234 |
| Time of Possession | 30:31 |
| Penalty Yards | 50.3 |
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 24-of-49 (49%) |
| 4th Downs | 2-of-2 (100%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 15-of-15 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 13-of-15 |
| Penalties – Yards | 26 – 201 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 3 – 1 |
The Red Wolves defense also has a few players that have been out due to injuries. Unlike their offensive counterparts, their return seems to be less certain. Massachusetts transfer senior cornerback Jordan Mahoney and senior Texas A&M transfer defensive lineman Micaiah Overton are two key pieces the Red Wolves hope to return.
ASU has been susceptible to big, pass-catching tight ends. Could this be a game where Coach Applewhite and offensive coordinator Rob Ezell lean more on DJ Thomas-Jones?
Special Teams
Ryan Heicher is averaging 44.2 yards per punt attempt with 10 fair catches, 7 downed inside the 20, 4 kicks of 50+ yards and a long of 56 over his 20 kicks.
Clune Van Andel is 3-of-6 on his field goal attempts with a long of 44 yards and only 1-of-4 from 30+ yards out.
Courtney Jackson is averaging 17.5 yards per punt return over his 8 returns including one for a 77-yard touchdown.
South Alabama
The Jaguars record-setting run over the last two games came back to earth against LSU. While the Jags looked great against App State, a fellow Sun Belt program, they didn’t match up very well against one of the upper programs in the SEC.
The second half was a bit different, with the Jags scoring their only touchdown while holding LSU to only one touchdown.
This week will be more telling as the Jags return to conference play.
Offense
South Alabama couldn’t establish a running game and the LSU defense was able to routinely get pressure on Lopez and Davenport. The offensive line was outplayed at the line of scrimmage, but still look to be a really good group that have been improving week after week.
Lopez is 73-of-114 (64%) for 1,014 yards and 10 touchdowns through the air. Bishop Davenport is 27-of-45 (60%) for 276 yards and a touchdown.
Jamaal Pritchett, despite leaving the game early against LSU, still leads the team with 29 catches for 394 yards and 4 touchdowns. Devin Voisin is next on the team with 17 catches for 207 yards.
Anthony Eager has 114 yards on 5 catches with two touchdowns. He scored the only touchdown against LSU as he stepped up when Pritchett was unavailable.
Tight end DJ Thomas-Jones adds 60 yards on only 7 catches with 3 touchdowns.
True freshman Fluff Bothwell leads the team with 376 yards on 47 carries with 6 touchdowns. Kentrel Bullock has 260 yards on 39 carries with 3 touchdowns. Lopez in third on the team with 204 yards on 31 carries with 2 touchdowns.
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 40.6 |
| Total Offense | 468.8 |
| Passing Offense | 258 |
| Rushing Offense | 210.8 |
| Time of Possession | 31:19 |
| Penalty Yards | 58.8 |
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 25-of-61 (41%) |
| 4th Downs | 5-of-8 (62.5%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 23-of-25 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 18-of-25 |
| Penalties – Yards | 37 – 294 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 5 – 2 |
Defense
Blayne Myrick continues to lead the defense with 37 total stops, 12 solo, with 2 pass breakups, a TFL and a forced fumble. Jordan Scruggs is next with 25 total stops, 10 solo, with 1.5 TFL’s, a pass breakup and an interception.
Jaden Voisin leads the team with 2 interceptions and has 24 total stops, 16 solo. Scruggs, Amarion Fortenberry, Lardarius Webb Jr and Caldwell Chrystyile each have an interception.
Four Jags all share the lead with one sack each.
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 29 |
| Total Offense | 448.6 |
| Passing Offense | 303.4 |
| Rushing Offense | 145.2 |
| Time of Possession | 28:41 |
| Penalty Yards | 56.6 |
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 27-of-64 (42.2%) |
| 4th Downs | 1-of-4 (25%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 14-of-19 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 11-of-19 |
| Penalties – Yards | 31 – 283 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 5 – 3 |
Special Teams
Aleksi Pulkkinen handled all of the punting duties against LSU and is averaging 41 yards per kick with 7 downed inside the 20, 6 fair catches and 1 punt of 50 yards is his longest.
Laith Marjan is 6-of-7 on the season with a season long of 49 yards last week against LSU.
Jamaal Pritchett is averaging 28 yards per punt return over his 7 returns including one touchdown return of 62 yards.
Keys to the Game
Quarterback Pressure
In the two games prior to LSU the Jags defense generated more pressure on the quarterback and forced bad passes and even some interceptions. They didn’t allow the quarterback to hang in the pocket and wait for a receiver to get open to pick the defense apart.
Even the week before against Ohio, while they didn’t generate a lot of qb pressure, they started to generate some and it showed both on the scoreboard and on the stat sheet. Though they didn’t manage a win, they played well enough to win.
Against LSU the Jags only managed to get the slightest pressure on the qb and even then, they managed force a couple of incompletions and two interceptions.
Arkansas State is so predominantly a passing team that getting pressure on Raynor will be key to disrupt their game script and prevent them from running up-tempo to take advantage of matchups. Plus Raynor already has five interceptions on the season, the Jags could add to their interception column.
Establishing the Run
When the Jags can run the ball, their offense runs much more efficiently. The Red Wolves allow an average of almost 200 yards rushing per game. With Bullock, Bothwell, PJ Martin, and Braylon McReynolds, who we haven’t seen in a few games, South Alabama has a strong rotation of backs to keep fresh legs in the game and pound on the ASU defense.
Explosive Plays
Explosive plays have caused havoc against the South Alabama defense. In almost every game the defense has allowed an explosive play for a touchdown. Even against Northwestern State they gave up a 74-yard touchdown catch and run for the Demon’s only touchdown of the game.
Last week explosive plays doomed them from the start with a 71-yard touchdown pass and run on the first snap of the game. Then LSU’s second offensive snap they rush for 86 yards before being stopped at the 1-yard line (they scored on the very next play).
Prediction
South Alabama is a 2.5-point favorite against Arkansas State in Jonesboro. Only recently have the Jags found any success on the road in Arkansas. The Jags have won the previous two meetings in Jonesboro, however they were 0-for-4 at Centennial Bank Stadium prior to that. They’ve also won the five meetings overall between the two programs.
Arkansas State is not an easy place to play, or even to get to really. Which may be a reason why it’s a tough location to play.
While this isn’t the same Arkansas State team that the Jags have faced in Jonesboro that previous two match-ups there, they have improved somewhat.
Injury wise, the Jags are trending well this week. Jamaal Pritchett left the LSU game late in the first quarter and was in the concussion protocol returned to practice on Wednesday in a limited capacity. Cornerback Reggie Neely (ankle in the season opener) and safety Trent Singleton (R-So) transfer from Mississippi State (foot injury in preseason camp) are both expected to be available to play. Gio Lopez was pulled from the game in the fourth quarter after a sack, Applewhite explained that he got up “gimpy” so they took him out as a precaution.
I think the Jags win and cover. They have a lot to play for this season and they won’t let last week define their season.
Go Jags!