Preview: South Alabama Looking For 3rd Consecutive Win Over Arkansas State On Homecoming
Kickoff: Saturday October 30, 4:00pm
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
Thunderjags Twitter: @USAThunderjags
South Alabama ran into a fired-up ULM team last week that put up season-high numbers on the Jags defense. It was uncharacteristic of the defense to struggle as much as they did against the ULM offense.
But credit is due to ULM (4-3, 2-2 SBC) and offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez for scheming a game plan and preparing their players for the Jaguars (4-3, 1-3 SBC) defense.
ULM put up 554 total yards of offense on the Jaguars with 369 yards coming through the air.
USA only managed to briefly seize control of the momentum in the game in the third quarter against ULM. They opened the half with a 10 play, 75 yard touchdown drive to tie the game. The defense held on a 4th and 3 at the Jags 34 yard line to give the ball back to the offense. Then the offense only took four plays to cover the 66 yards, the final 40 via a touchdown pass to Jalen Tolbert.
It seemed at that time that the halftime adjustments had cured the ills.
But ULM took the ball on the ensuing kickoff and responded to the Jags two-consecutive scores with a touchdown of their own to tie the game again.
The Warhawks had retaken the momentum and would not relinquish it.
Arkansas State
South Alabama’s next opportunity to get a game closer to bowl eligibility comes up this weekend. The Jags will host Arkansas State (1-6, 0-3 SBC) for their annual homecoming on Saturday.
Last season the Jags notched their first win in Jonesboro in four tries. It marked the Jags first two-game winning streak against the Red Wolves and the third win in the last four meetings.
Overall the Jags still trail in the series 3 games to 6.
Gone is coach Blake Anderson. His replacement is former Tennessee head coach Butch Jones and most recently University of Alabama analyst.
However the Butch Jones tenure is off to a rough start.
The Red Wolves are off to a 1-6 start to the season. But they’ve had some close calls. They came up short in a shootout against Memphis 55-50, on the road against Tulsa 41-34, and just last week they fell to Louisiana-Lafayette 28-27 coming off their bye week.
But they’ve also been on the wrong side of some blowouts too. They fell to Washington 52-3, to Georgia Southern 59-33, and to Coastal Carolina 52-20.
Each week you’re not quite sure which team you’re going to get.
Offense
Arkansas State averages 29.6 points per game, 436.3 total yards, 348.6 passing yards, and 87.7 rushing yards per game.
They are converting 36-of-99 3rd down attempts (36%) and 1-of-7 4th down attempts (14%) on the season.
The quarterback has been sacked 26 times on the season for a loss of 140 yards. That’s an average of 3.7 sacks per game.
They have turned the ball over 11 times on the season, seven interceptions and four fumbles lost of their eight total fumbles.
Their top three running backs are all within a couple carries of each other. Lincoln Pare has 41 carries for 205 yards and a touchdown, Johnnie Lang has 44 carries for 172 yards, and Alan Lamar have 40 carries for 120 yards and a touchdown.
The Red Wolves do not have as much of a two-quarterback system as they have utilized under coach Anderson. However they are still utilizing a two quarterback system.
James Blackman is 109-of-184 (59.2%) for 1,334 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions on the season. Layne Hatcher is 78-of-139 (56.1%) for 1,106 yards, 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. Each quarterback have missed a game each.
ASU has a long list of receivers with catches. Three of them stand out from the rest. Corey Rucker has 35 catches for 550 yards and eight touchdowns. Te’Vaila Hunt has 32 catches for 511 yards and four touchdowns. Jeff Foreman has 24 catches for 419 yards and two touchdowns. Four other receivers have over 100 receiving yards on the season and five receivers beyond the three mentioned have double-digit numbers of receptions.
Lamar is the team leader with 900 all-purpose yards with 690 of them coming from kickoff returns. That includes a 93 yard kickoff return for a touchdown against Tulsa.
The Red Wolves have rushed for over 100 yards in a game twice. In their only win of the season they rushed for 194 yards against Central Arkansas. The other time was last weeks close game against Louisiana where they ran for 113 yards.
Defense
The defense has really been the Achilles heel for the Red Wolves. Particularly their run defense it seems.
Lets delve into the statistics first.
The defense is allowing a whopping average of 44 points per game.
On average the defense is allowing 578.6 total yards of offense, 288 yards passing and 290.6 yards rushing per game this season.
As a defensive coach those numbers make you cringe a bit. As an offensive coach I’m sure that makes you smile.
Opponents are converting 36-of-87 3rd down attempts (41%) and 5-of-6 4th down attempts (83%).
Safety Elery Alexander leads the team with 50 total tackles, 31 solo with a sack and two fumble recoveries.
The next closest defender is linebacker Caleb Bonner with 39 stops, 16 solo.
Georgia Southern ran for 503 yards and averaged 9.9 yards per rush. Coastal Carolina rushed for 294 yards and 8.2 yards per rush. Louisiana ran for 424 yards and 8.0 yards per rush. Tulsa ran for 308 yards and 6.3 yards per rush.
Louisiana only threw the ball 20 times in the game with 11 completions for 122 yards. Their final drive was a gruelling 18 play, 88 yard march burning 10:26 off the clock before they took two knees to end the game.
Special Teams
Blake Grupe is 22-of-23 on extra points and 10-of-12 on field goals for the season. His long is a 50 yarder against Tulsa.
Ryan Hanson has 42 punts on the season and is averaging 43.3 yards per attempt. He has 9 punts that have gone 50+ yards, the longest being a 60 yard kick. He has 16 of them inside the 20 yard line and none have been touchbacks.
South Alabama
Good news was that some injured players returned to the lineup for the Jags. Kareem Walker, Caullin Lacy were among those who returned.
However with the good also comes some bad. They lost Hadon Merchant to a knee injury early in the game. At a minimum he’s going to miss some time and could possibly miss the remainder of the season.
Also at practice during in the week leading up to the ULM game Josh McCulloch suffered an injury that kept him sidelined. It’s unknown if McCulloch will be ready for the Red Wolves.
But others continued to be hampered by lingering issues. Jamal Brooks was one of those who had to leave the ULM game a few times but tried to play through the pain.
Offense
South Alabama is averaging 28.9 points, 390.7 total yards, 263 passing yards, and 127.7 rushing yards per game on offense.
Their third down efficiency needs improvement. They are converting 38-of-101 (38%) 3rd down attempts on the season. They are converting 11-of-17 (65%) 4th down attempts on the season. That includes the 4th and 3 near the goal line last Saturday that went for a touchdown.
The Jags have converted 26-of-31 (84%) of their red zone trips into scores. Of those 26 scores, 22 (71%) of them have been touchdowns.
Jaguar quarterbacks have been sacked 14 times for a loss of 88 yards on the season.
Terrion Avery leads the Jaguar backfield with 286 yards on 73 carries with a touchdown. Bryan Hill is next with 224 yards on 57 carries through five games with three touchdowns. Kareem Walker has 211 yards on 58 carries and four touchdowns in only four games.
Jake Bentley is completing 69.1% of his throws. He is 152-of-220 for 1,825 yards, 11 touchdowns and four interceptions.
Jalen Tolbert is far and away the leading pass catcher in the offense. He has 46 receptions for 873 yards and four touchdowns. That averages out to be 124.7 yards per game and 19 yards per catch.
Jalen Wayne has 343 yards on 29 catches with two touchdowns. Caullin Lacy has 27 catches for 223 yards. Tight end Lincoln Sefcik has 12 catches for 114 yards and three touchdowns.
As mentioned above, the Jags offensive line has suffered more than their share of injuries this season. However there’s a good chance that James Jackson could return to action this week. If so that would allow Trey Simpson to move back over to left guard.
Defense
The Jaguars are allowing an average of 22.1 points, 334.6 total yards, 204.6 passing yards, and 130 rushing yards per game. Which rank nationally at T43rd, T35th, 40th, T40th respectively.
The Jags defense has 13 takeaways which is tied for 24th nationally.
Keith Gallmon and Yam Banks are tied for the lead with 34 total stops each. Both has 20 solo stops each. Gallmon has 2.5 tackles for loss, an interception and a fumble recovery. Banks has 4 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles.
CJ Rias continues to lead the defense with three sacks on the season. Tre Young also continues to lead the defense with two interceptions.
Special Teams
Jack Brooks has punted 31 times with an average of 41.9 yards per punt. Eight downed inside the 20, 11 fair caught, six have gone 50+ yards and his longest has gone 54 yards.
Diego Guajardo is 22-of-24 on extra point attempts. He is 8-of-12 in field goal attempts, missing one attempt in each of the last four games. His long on the season in 48 yards.
Keys to the Game
Consistent Execution
In every game, except maybe the Georgia Southern game, the Jags have had stretches with some quite poor execution. In the first five games, the Jags opening possession all ended with three-and-outs.
Against ULM the defense couldn’t execute well enough to stop the Warhawks passing game taking advantage of seams in the coverage.
The only game where the Jags executed consistently for the most part was against Georgia Southern. And you can see what they are capable of when they do.
Stay Healthy
Many teams are bruised and beat up by this point in the season.
The Jags are no exception. And they may be more bruised and beat up than a few others.
They need to get through a week without accumulating more injuries, especially on the offensive line. But the linebacker corps could use a break from the injuries as well.
Flying Footballs
There is no denying that Jalen Tolbert is a beast.
Arkansas State is particularly bad at defending the pass. This could set up for a huge game for Jake Bentley, Jalen Tolbert, and the rest of the Jaguar receivers.
But Arkansas get most of their offensive yards through the air themselves. After ULM’s slicing and dicing of the Jaguar secondary, this should be of some concern.
Prediction
The Jags chances are growing fewer by the game. If they want to attain bowl eligibility that is. Arkansas State looks like they should be a team the Jags can and should win against.
However last week the Jags were a double-digit favorite and we see how that turned out. You simply cannot take anything for granted.
As we keep pointing out, the final three or four games are brutal. And as it stands right now they will need to find at least one win out of those four to get bowl eligible.
Three consecutive weeks of travel to rival Troy, App State, and SEC opponent Tennessee is followed by the regular season finale against Coastal Carolina at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
But we can’t lose focus on this week. Arkansas State is coming and the Jags need a win.
The Jags are favored in the game by 9.5 points. Last week I had a bad feeling about the game. I picked the Jags to win but not to cover. Well, I was a bit wrong.
This week I feel a bit better. The Jags will be at home, not playing in Monroe, LA. It’s homecoming and the opposing team’s rush defense is particularly weak and has a weak rushing offense.
If the Jags secondary can hold up against the Red Wolves passing, they can win the game. But as we saw last week, the Jags had better be prepared.
I think the Jags win, but they don’t cover. It may come down to a defensive stand late in the game or Diego’s leg once again. It could also be a one sided affair, it really depends on which Jaguar team and which Red Wolves team show up at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
Go Jags!