Preview: South Alabama Hosts Georgia Southern For Thursday Night Matchup
Kickoff: Thursday October 14, 6:30 pm
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium Mobile, Alabama
TV: ESPNU
Radio: Sports Talk 99.5 fm, 96.1 fm The Rocket, iHeartRadio App
We saw another first from the South Alabama Jaguars on Saturday evening against Texas State. It was the first time under first year head coach Kane Wommack that the Jaguars faltered coming down the stretch.
Through the first four games the Jags (3-2, 0-2 SBC) have started slow but in each of them they rallied towards the final whistle. Three of them were wins and one was a loss.
While the Jags still opened slowly against the Bobcats, they took control and had a 17-7 lead at halftime.
They led 24-10 early in the fourth quarter.
Momentum shifted decisively into the Bobcats favor when a flea flicker attempt went awry. Running back Bryan Hill technically fumbled the ball away on the stats sheet, however his lateral intended for Jake Bentley was plucked out of the air by a Bobcat defender.
The Jags have quite a tough assignment this week.
They have to clear their minds, rest their bodies, and yet they still need to prepare to host Georgia Southern on Thursday night after that very physical game in San Marcos, Texas.
Georgia Southern
The Eagles (2-4, 1-2 SBC) dismissed head coach Chad Lunsford after a 28-20 loss to Louisiana in the fourth game of the season after starting the season 1-3. They then split the two games since then with a win over Arkansas State (59-33) and last Saturday a loss to Troy (27-24) on a very late field goal.
They fought back from a 24-3 deficit early in the third quarter to tie the game with 6:08 left in the game. Aided by an interception, Troy regained the lead with 1:46 left in the game. The Eagles had an opportunity tie or win the game, but quarterback Justin Tomlin threw his third interception near midfield with :32 left to seal the game.
They too have a short week but at least they have to travel to Mobile for the game.
Offense
As is normal for a Georgia Southern offense, they are a predominately running offense.
They average just under 381 yards of total offense per game. The running game accounts for an average of just over 253 yards per game and they pass for 127.5 yards per game on average.
However the script was flipped for the Eagles against Troy. Georgia Southern only managed to run for 82 yards against the Trojans but threw for 219 yards.
Georgia Southern scores an average of 24.8 points per game. They have only converted 27-of-86 3rd down attempts (31.4%) on the season. They have converted 9-of-17 4th down attempts (52.9%).
As a team they have thrown 5 interceptions and fumbled 7 times, but only lost 1 fumble to opponents.
In the red zone the Eagles have scored 14 times out of 16 trips. Of those 14 scores, 8 of them have been touchdowns.
Logan Wright leads the Eagles backfield with 66 carries for 481 yards and five touchdowns on the season. Gerald Green accounts for 342 yards on 48 carries with five touchdowns. Jalen White has ran 32 times for 210 yards and two touchdowns.
The Eagles have a bit of a two quarterback system going on. Justin Tomlin has carried the ball 50 times this season for 116 yards and two touchdowns. Passing he is 38-of-77 for 458 yards, no touchdowns but four interceptions. Cam Ransom is 25-of-49 for 242 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions.
The Eagles only have three receivers with over 100 yards receiving so far on the season. Khaleb Hood leads the receiver corps with 22 catches, the only receiver in double digits, for 230 yards. Running back Logan Wright is next with 9 catches for 102 yards. Derwin Burgess Jr has four receptions for 101 yards.
Defense
GSU allows an average of 32.7 points per game.
They allow an average of 483 yards per game. However they only allow 144.2 yards rushing per game. But they allow 338.8 yards passing per game.
Their 3rd down defense is pretty strong with opponents converting 31-of-78 (39.7%) on 3rd down. Opponents have only attempted 9 4th down attempts and only converted 2 (22.2%).
Safety Anthony Wilson leads the defense with 34 total tackles, 19 of them solo, with two tackles-for-loss, one sack, three pass break ups and a forced fumble.
Safety Justin Birdsong is second with 32 total tackles, 18 of them solo, with 1.5 tackles for loss, .5 sack, and a pass break up.
Gardner-Webb opened the season with only 50 yards rushing against the Eagles defense, but they threw for 365 yards. The Eagles squeaked out a 30-25 win over the FCS opponent.
Their only other win was against Arkansas State when they held the Red Wolves to 81 yards rushing but allowed 453 yards passing in route to the 59-33 victory.
When Georgia Southern holds their opponents to under 100 yards rushing they are 2-0 this season. But when they allow over 100 yards, they are 0-4.
Against Louisiana they only allowed 129 rushing yards and lost the game 28-20. Against Troy they allowed 139 yards and lost 27-24.
Special Teams
Anthony Beck averages just a hair under 45 yards per punt. His longest on the season is 60 yards and he has 12 downed inside the opponents 20 yard line.
Alex Raynor has converted 5-of-6 field goal attempts with a long of 42 yards. The one missed attempt was blocked. Raynor has 13 kickoffs with six touchbacks.
Freshman Britton Williams is 3-for-3 in field goal attempts with a long of 49 yards. Williams has handled 18 kickoffs with five touchbacks and two out of bounds.
South Alabama
The Jags have a laundry list of injured players that are in various stages of recovery from the game. Running back Kareem Walker, who has missed the last two games, should be able to return on Thursday. Running back Terrion Avery, wide receiver Caullin Lacy, offensive tackle Ja’Chai Baker, tight ends Trent Tyre and Lincoln Sefcik, and linebackers Chris Henderson, Shawn Jennings and Ke’Shun Brown are all trying to recover from being banged up against the Bobcats, but should be able to play.
Center James Jackson suffered an injury to this right knee and will not play on Thursday.
Add in A.J. DeShazor’s disqualification for targeting in the second half of the game in San Marcos, the Jags will be without him in the first half against Georgia Southern as well. With Jennings’ being banged up, that means Juco transfer Trey Kiser will likely see more action.
Offense
The Jags offensive line has been particularly hit by injuries, however Jackson’s injury is the most significant. This will be the sixth different starting offensive line configuration in six games. You’ll likely see Trey Simpson move over to play center with Josh McCulloch at left tackle, Hadon Merchant at left guard, Anterrious Gray at right guard and Antawn Lewis at right tackle.
After last weeks performance, Bryan Hill only managed to run for 17 net yards on 13 carries against the Bobcats. AJ Phillips was the Jags leading rusher with 19 carries for 72 yards and two touchdowns, his first career score as a Jaguar. Caullin Lacy ran four times for 23 yards.
The Jags have done a good job developing their run game so far this season. They entered the season with Walker and Avery as the top two backs. Now with the emergence of Hill and Phillips, the Jags have developed depth at a position that was lacking it somewhat.
But the running backs would not be having as much success if the offensive line had not continued to improve as well.
The run game success translated into play-action passing and increased vertical passing opportunities as seen against Louisiana two weeks ago.
Georgia Southern’s defense has been pretty good against the run but susceptible to the pass by allowing an average of 338.8 yards per game.
If the Jags run game can get some footing early then Jalen Tolbert, Jalen Wayne, Caullin Lacy, and Cade Sutherland should be able to find some success against the Eagles.
Defense
For the first time this season the Jags defense struggled coming down the stretch against Texas State. They allowed two touchdown drives in the fourth quarter. Up until that point the Jags only allowed one touchdown all season in the fourth quarter
Though they were missing AJ DeShazor due to disqualification and had three linebackers banged up.
They allowed 399 yards of total offense, the most so far this season, and 212 yards rushing, also the most allowed so far this season.
Maybe one of their toughest assignments yet is coming to town.
Georgia Southern runs the triple-option, an offense that has given the Jags fits historically.
So much so the Jags have yet to notch a win against the Eagles.
The first five meetings between the two were decided by 22, 38, 15, 52, and 35 points. However the last two meetings were decided by a field goal in overtime in 2019 and a touchdown last season.
Head coach Kane Wommack said that he and defensive coordinator Corey Batoon’s defense had facets built in that would naturally help defend against the triple option.
Special Teams
Diego Guajardo made all of his extra points against Texas State and is now 13-of-15. He missed a 28 yard attempt attempt against the Bobcats but connected on a 35 yard attempt. He is now 5-of-7 on the season.
Jack Brooks averages 41.4 yards punt with 7 downed inside the opponents 20 yard line and no touchbacks.
Keys to the Game
Stopping the Run
Georgia Southern isn’t the traditional triple option team that they once were. But running the ball is still 100% their identity.
When they’ve been held to under 100 yards rushing this season they are 0-2. Over the last few years when their opponent out gains them on the ground, they have lost all 20-some-odd games.
The South Alabama defense has ranked very high in the nation in run defense. Coach Wommack said that their defensive scheme has elements to it that help to stop their type of rushing attack too.
Rushing Offense
Being a predominately run offense, the Eagles defense tends to be pretty good against the run themselves.
When they have been able to take away the run and force their opponents to be one dimensional with the pass, they have excelled.
However when the opponent has success on the ground, gets favorable down and distances, and can use play-action passing to their advantage their opponents have done well.
The Jags have tall, athletic receivers in Jalen Tolbert and Jalen Wayne. The Jags have an average height advantage over the defensive backs of 3 inches. Tolbert has shown that he is one of the best receivers in the Sun Belt and possibly in the nation too.
If they can establish that run game and use play-action to get some man-to-man coverage on the outside with either Wayne or Tolbert then they could have a field day with the Eagles secondary.
Offensive Line
The Jags offensive line is a banged and bruised up group right. They’ve been that way all season though.
They have yet to start the same five guys in the same five positions twice this season.
Trey Simpson is slated to move over to center while while James Jackson will miss the game with a right knee injury. Thankfully it doesn’t look too serious or season ending.
Left tackle Ja’Chai Baker missed some time last Saturday due to injury.
They’ll need to be ready to go come Thursday evening.
Prediction
South Alabama is only a few plays away from being 5-0. But they are also only a few plays away from being 1-4 as well.
As an article a couple weeks ago pointed out, the Jags have a run of four games that should be very winnable. The first was Texas State.
Next up is Georgia Southern.
This may not be a must-win game in order to keep hope alive to get bowl-eligible. But the difficulty increases week by week. The last three game will be against the three most difficult teams on the schedule. The game before that three-game stretch is at Troy. Need I say more?
The time to win is now.
Also, let’s get that first win against Georgia Southern. Having that big zero staring at you from the win column each and every year is really old.
The Jags are a 3 point favorite according to the different odds sites. I think the Jags win but I’m not sure if they will cover. It may be yet another nail biter decided late in the game.
Let’s get to 4-2 and a win closer to bowl eligibility.
Go Jags!