Preview: Texas State at South Alabama
Kickoff: 11:00 am, October 17
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL.
Television: ESPNU
Radio: Sports Talk 99.5 FM, 96.1 FM The Rocket, iHeartRadio app
23 days.
That’s how long it’s been since the South Alabama Jaguars (1-2, 0-0 Sun Belt Conference) have been on the field to play an opponent when they take the field on Saturday to play Texas State (1-4, 1-1 SBC).
After the 42-10 beat down at the hands of UAB, the Jags had players test positive for Covid-19 which lead to the postponement and eventual rescheduling of the October 3 rivalry game against Troy (now December 12).
The October 10 date was a scheduled bye date. The week leading up to it, the coaching staff started getting some players back, meeting in small position groups and reconditioning and focusing on fundamentals.
It’s basically a big reset button of sorts.
On Friday and Saturday the Jags were able to finally get back together for team exercises with pads. But without workouts and donning pads for a week and a half to two weeks, how can anyone not question the conditioning and preparation of the team?
It’s been a sad state of affairs in San Marcos. Over the past five and a half seasons the Texas State Bobcats have compiled a cumulative record of 14-51.
The Jags and the Bobcats have been battling each other for which team would finish in the Sun Belt Conference cellar. The loser of the head-to-head between the two teams has finished at the bottom of the conference standings the few seasons.
Texas State Offense
The Bobcats are predominately a passing team. They have been using two quarterbacks thanks to Covid-19, Tyler Vitt and Brady McBride. McBride won the job in fall camp and is 55-of-96 for 549 yards, 5 touchdowns and two interceptions on the season. McBride started the opener agianst SMU.
With McBride unavailable for their next two games, the incumbent Vitt took over duties. He is 40-of-64 for 602 yards, 6 touchdowns and two interceptions on the season. He has also added 89 rushing yards and a touchdown with his legs.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see both quarterbacks play on Saturday unless one or the other really has a hot hand.
The ball has been spread around pretty well. The leading receiver, Jeremiah Baydel has 18 catches for 241 yards and three touchdowns. Jah’Marae Sheread has 15 catches for 155 yards and a touchdown. Marcell Barbee and Trevis Graham Jr. both have 11 catches with Barbee leading with 173 yards and 4 touchdowns while Graham Jr has 120 yards and no touchdowns.
They have eight others who have caught passes on the season with three touchdowns spread about amongst them.
The Bobcats leading rusher is Calvin Hill with 308 yards on 55 attempts with three touchdowns. Brock Sturges has 61 carries for 251 yards and two touchdowns. But they also have Oklahoma State transfer Jahmyl Jeter who may see his role increase as the season progresses, but currently only has 80 yards and one touchdown on his stats sheet.
Overall, the offense averages 148.6 yards per game rushing and 230.8 yards passing per game for a total of 350 total yards per game.
Coach Stewart will look for his players to make more havoc plays in the game to try to yeild more negative plays and turnovers. So far this season the Jags only have two takeaways, both fumbles.
Haydel also does punt return duty and took one 91 yards for a touchdown against UTSA with under 2 minutes to go to tie the game. Unfortunately they missed the game-winning extra-point and lost the game in overtime.
Texas State Defense
Defensively the Bobcats have forced 5 turnovers on the season. Four of the turnovers are interceptions. Jarron Morris leads them with two picks, he also took one 100 yards for a touchdown in a win over Louisiana-Monroe. He also has three pass break ups, a quarterback hurry, a forced fumble, and a blocked kick.
For the season the Bobcats are allowing an average of 162 yards rushing, 292 yards passing, and 32 points per game.
Statistically the defense plays the best in the first and fourth quarters. They have only allowed 20 points in the first quarter and 30 points in the fourth quarter. The third quarter is only slightly worse with 38 points allowed on the season. But the second quarter is their worst, allowing 62 points on the season.
Despite their number of interceptions, the Bobcats are susceptible to the pass as the stats show. If the Jags can establish their running game enough to keep the defense honest, the passing game should open up for the adept pass catchers that the Jags field.
But that hinges on the offensive line.
They have had a shaky start to the season to say the least. Through three games they have allowed seven sacks and 20 tackles for loss. It’s encouraging that the probable return of Hadon Merchant to the offensive line will help solidify the group.
Keys to the Game
3rd Down
Offensively the Jags have regressed from the Southern Miss game. Their 3rd down conversion rate has dropped from 58% at USM to 47% against Tulane then plummeting to 25% against UAB. While the explosive plays have led the Jaguar offense to scoring more points so far this season, third downs extend drives, continue possessions, and generally helps to win games.
Oh yeah, and help the defense get some rest between possessions.
Defensively, the Jags have been pretty solid on 3rd downs against USM and Tulane with a 35% and 9% conversion rate. However UAB, in addition to their big plays, they also converted 63% of their 3rd down attempts.
Which leads us to…
Big Plays
UAB used big plays to keep the Jags on their heels and set that tone on the very first play from scrimmage. The Jags lost five players in the secondary from last season either to graduation or transfer. If defensive coordinator Greg Stewart and the defense can’t stop the big plays on defense, the remaining teams on the schedule will definitely notice and exploit it themselves.
Improved Second Half Play
In the Jags loss to Tulane, they put 10 points on the board early before the offense ground to a halt in the third quarter. They were simply unable to consistently move the ball again after that. The defense then allowed 21 points and the Tulane win.
Against UAB, the offense only really showed itself in the second quarter when they scored 10 unanswered points to draw within four of the Blazers. However the second half the Jags were simply unable to move the ball consistently and were unable to put any points on the board.
Prediction
The Jags are a mere 2.5 point favorite at home, where they have yet to win a game in the brand new Hancock Whitney Stadium. This is their opportunity to start their ‘second season’, the conference season, with a win. The last few games between the two has been won by the home team and that has been enough to lift them out of the Sun Belt Conference cellar.
USA will have Desmond Trotter back with his shoulder reportedly near 100% again. They’ve also reportedly been trying some new combinations and positions on the offensive line with some returning faces healthy.
I the pattern will continue itself with the Jags winning at home to finally celebrate a win at Hancock Whitney.
The Jags and the Bobcats will kickoff at 11am. The game can be seen on ESPNU or radio coverage will be available on Sports Talk 99.5 FM or 96.1 FM The Rocket or on iHeartRadio app.
Jags Vs Trojans: The 2019 ‘Battle for the Belt’
South Alabama and Troy started playing each other annually as the Jags were a transitional member of FBS. In 2015, in order to give the game the significance people thought it deserved, the two schools embraced the title “Battle for the Belt” and adopted a wrestling style championship belt as the trophy to be exchanged between the two schools.
Since introducing the Belt trophy, neither school has successfully defended the title and the road team has been the winner.
In 2017 South Alabama traveled to Troy with a 1-4 record and displayed grit and determination on national TV to bring home the belt. They did it with a stifling defense, solid special teams play, and enough offense to get the job done against an eager Trojan defense. That was also a Trojan team that defeated LSU and won 11 games.
Last year the Trojans came to Mobile with a big crowd and took a two-score lead early in the second quarter before cruising to a 38-17 win.
The Jags enter the game with a 1-5 record overall and 0-2 in conference play on the season and desperately seeking a win against an FBS opponent. They also enter the game after a tough double-overtime loss to Georgia Southern last time out on the field.
The team is talented and has shown flashes of that talent, but have been unable to put it together from the opening kick all the way until the scoreboard shows :00 at the end of the game.
Head coach Steve Campbell, defensive coordinator Greg Stewart and offensive coordinator Kenny Edenfield all have very strong ties to Troy. All three were teammates on the 1987 NCAA Division II national championship team. Stewart was also on the 1984 national championship team. Edenfield has the most experience in this rivalry as he’s been an assistant coach at Troy for 10 years prior to joining Campbell at USA in 2018.
Troy enters the game with a 2-3 record under new head coach Chip Lindsey. They too enter the game after a tough loss, a 42-10 whipping at Missouri. Also adding insult to injury, they may be without quarterback Kaleb Barker due to an injury against Missouri. With that, they hope to have a strong showing by their defense, who has already allowed over half the points in five games as they allowed in 13 games last season.
But the Jags coaching staff aren’t quite buying it. They think Barker will actually play in the game and his questionable status is just something to force the Jags to prepare for both contingencies.
Troy will definitely scheme to stop Tra Minter and the Jags running game. He is obviously the center piece to the Jags offense. He is quite clearly the primary running back, often the leading receiver, and returns kicks and punts.
The next player the Trojan defense will look to neutralize is Kawaan Baker. Behind Minter, Baker is the next most consistent playmaker in the offense through jet sweeps and pass catching.
The third and one that touches the ball the most, Cephus Johnson, has been quite efficient running the ball in recent games. Johnson also showed off his arm against Georgia Southern with two big touchdown passes of 75 and 60 yards to Baker and Jalen Tolbert.
This may give have given Troy something else to prepare for as Troy’s secondary has been struggling so far this season. Couple that with the possibilty of a second-string quarterback stepping in and getting stops and limiting scoring opportunities by the Trojan defense will be a premium.
The Jags defense has played strong this season with standout performances against Nebraska and Georgia Southern. Through most of the game the Jags played strong but when the defense is on the field for over 40 minutes, its no wonder the Eagles were able to drive down the field to tie the game and send it to overtime.
The major difference the Jags will see when they face the Trojans is the offense. Under Lindsey. the Trojans are spreading the field and throwing the ball more when, under Neal Brown, they ran more Run-Pass Option (RPO).
Defensively the Trojans are pretty similar to last year.
The Trojans are a 15 point favorite in the game. Both teams have had extra time to prepare and scheme ahead of a nationally broadcast game.
Can this be the week the Jags turn the corner on the 2019 season?
I think the Jags will play inspired and energized game in this rivalry game. They will have a chance to win. So I think the Jags will cover the spread but they have to prove themselves before I can pick them to win outright. I definitely don’t want the Trojans to be the first to defend the belt since it’s introduction. I hope the trend keeps up and the road team wins the game.
Go Jags
Troy Wins The Battle of the Belt 38-14
A big first half by Troy was all that was needed by the Trojans to defeat South Alabama at home on a Tuesday night nationally televised game, 38-17.
The Jags lost the penalty battle, the two teams had the same number of penalties, seven, but the Jags were penalized for 91 yards while the Trojans had 67 yards in penalties.
Jaguar head coach Steve Campbell was glad to get the teams leading tackler, Nigel Lawrence, back for the game after missing the last two with a knee injury. However his time was short lived. On the third play from scrimmage he was flagged for targeting and disqualified for the game.
Later in the first half, on a play where the ball bounced off of Bull Barge and was intercepted by Sterrling Fisher, the replay booth called down for a review and eventually ejected Jeffery Whatley for targeting while throwing a block for his teammate.
These two targeting ejections makes five of them in the last four games.
South Alabama also lost the turnover battle. After being quite efficient in the passing game, Evan Orth threw three interceptions in the game, doubling his number for the season.
Meanwhile the Jags were able to pick off one of Sawyer Smith’s passes and was able to cover a muffed punt late in the first half.
USA had trouble weathering the early onslaught by the Trojans, allowing scores on each of Troy’s first five possessions. In most of the Jags games this season, the defense has dug deep holes and put the offense down by double-digits.
Risk taking, while it can turn the momentum in your favor if it works out, it can also backfire. That’s what happened at the end of the first half. After the Jags were stopped and Troy took a time out to force USA to punt, the punt bounced and hit a Troy returner and was recovered at the 27 yard line with three seconds left. But instead of kicking the gift field goal, Campbell and Edenfield decided to run a hail-mary style play against Troy’s prevent defense which nearly turned into pick six if it wasn’t for Tra Minter forcing the returner out of bounds at the USA 35 it would have been a touchdown.
After finding success with an onsides kick in the season opener against Louisiana Tech, the Jags have tried to catch their opponents by surprise a few times since then. Each time they were prepared for it or the bounce did not go the Jags way, but each time it gave the momenum back to the opponent. After the interception and return, the Trojan players rushed to the South endzone where a mass of Troy students were ready to receive them after an opening half score of 31-17 and a big play to lead them to the halftime break.
The second half was very different. The Jags defense tightened up and so did the Troy offense. While the Jags offense could move the ball, they couldn’t get into scoring position and when they did they threw interceptions and missed a field goal.
The only score of the second half came with 4:39 left in the game after Evan Orth threw the ball into the end zone but had it intercepted and ran back for an apparent touchdown only to have it called back to the 11 yard line due to a holding call. Two plays later the Trojans put the dagger into the heart of the Jags putting them up 38-17.
USA finished the game with 385 yards of total offense, 275 of them coming through the air. Troy gained 410 total yards, 261 through the air and 252 on the ground. But the Jaguar defense only allowed 71 total yards in the second half.
Tra Minter rushed 23 times for 99 yards to lead the Jaguar rushing attack and added 49 yards receiving on two catches. Jamarius Way caught six passes for 80 yards and a touchdown. Jordan McCray added three for 60 yards and the other touchdown.
Troy’s BJ Smith rushed 22 times for 170 yards and a touchdown. Damion Willis caught five passes for 132 yards and two touchdowns.
Despite being only 2-6 on the season and 1-3 in conference play, the Jags still control their destiny in the Sun Belt Conference Western division. They need to win out to get bowl eligible and three of those four are western division rivals each with two conference losses.
It’s not going to be an easy road with perennial contender Arkansas State coming up first followed by Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana-Lafayette and Coastal Carolina. But if they can continue to correct things each week, then it’s not outside the realm of possibility. A 5-3 conference record with wins over all of the western conference members would hold all of the tie breakers.
Meanwhile Troy (6-2, 4-0 SBC) keeps pace with Georgia Southern and Appalachian State, both 3-0 and on a collision course on Thursday night, October 25th in a battle of conference unbeatens and a rivalry known as ‘Deeper than Hate.’
South Alabama will return to action on the road in Jonesboro, Arkansas against Arkansas State on Saturday, November 3. The game can be seen on ESPN+.
Inside the Numbers:
Jags Travel Back To Georgia Southern AKA The Scene Of The Crime
South Alabama (1-4, 1-1 SBC) hits the road for the final leg of their three game road swing to take on a resurgent Georgia Southern (3-1, 1-0 SBC) team in Statesboro, Georgia. This is also back-to-back seasons traveling to Statesboro, which is due to the Sun Belt Conference aligning into two divisions and hosting a Conference Championship Game beginning this season.
To give a little history, last season the Eagles were starting season two of Tyson Summers tenure as head coach. He had taken over for very successful Willie Fritz who left to take the head coaching position at Tulane (the Eagles won the GoDaddy Bowl to finish 9-4). Summers won the first three games of 2017 before losing 7 of the final 9 games of the season to finish a disappointing 5-7.
The 2017 season started out with a 41-7 loss to then #12 Auburn, followed by a 22-12 loss to FCS New Hampshire in Birmingham. They were 0-6 when it was decided that the six-time FCS national champions would fire Summers and name Chad Lunsford as the interim head coach.
Lunsford then lost the next three games to Troy, Georgia State and Appalachian State before having a long week to prepare for South Alabama. The Jags had started the season with two power 5 teams in Ole Miss and Oklahoma State before welcoming FCS Alabama A&M. They opened Sun Belt play against Idaho in a disaster of a game that lasted some 8 hours or so with multiple lightning delays and horrendous officiating that eventually saw the Vandals (steal a) win in overtime.
The Jags limped into Troy, who themselves were coming off of an upset win over LSU, for a Wednesday night game against their in-state rivals. The Jags turned up the defense and upset the Trojans 19-8 in front of a nationally televised audience.
The up-and-down Jags then defeated Louisiana-Monroe and lost to Georgia State and Louisiana-Lafayette before hosting the defending SBC champs, and the favorite to win the conference title again, Arkansas State Red Wolves. The Jags showed up and earned their first win against ASU. It looked like head coach Joey Jones may have saved his job, especially if they could win out and get bowl eligible again.
But the 0-9 Eagles had a different idea.
The Jags went into Statesboro and the game was a complete nightmare. Lunsford had rallied his team and they shellacked the Jags 52-0, which sealed Jones’ fate with his announced resignation effective at the end of the season two days later. It was the first time the Jags were held scoreless in program history.
Now back to current day.
The Jags have a new head coach in Steve Campbell but, as his post game comments said last Saturday, they are not as far along as he thought. The Jags were completely demolished by Appalachian State in Boone, NC 52-7. Now they hope to get some revenge from last year, notch their second win of the season, and keep their lead in their conference division.
The Eagles enter the game after a big win over one of the conference’s best teams year-in and year-out in Arkansas State.
The Eagles sealed the game with a reverse option pitch that went 47 yards for the game-deciding touchdown with :19 left in the game. The Eagles completed just one pass in the game, though they only attempted three passes, but the lone completion went 61 yards for a touchdown, however the Eagles rushed for 348 yards in the game.
South Alabama has already shown on the season that they are very susceptible to the run and big plays. The defense ranks 117th nationally in total defense (501.8 yards per game), 120th in rush defense (234.4 yards per game) and 126th in scoring defense (44 points per game). Add in the fact that the Jags have not found a way to stop the triple option attack, one could even say it has been their kryptonite over the last several years.
But the Jags offense showed some triple option itself early in the season, but has shied away from it the last few games. Coach Campbell, offensive coordinator Kenny Edenfield and defensive coordinator Greg Stewart all have experience with the option somewhat. But will that translate onto the field?
Just a few weeks ago the Jags were riding high after getting their first win under Coach Campbell and playing well on the road against Memphis before last weeks debacle, where the Jags were outscored 45-0 after tying the game at 7 in the first quarter.
The most prominent affliction that can be seen each and every game has been penalties. USA is next-to-last nationally with 51 penalties, only three behind Kent State, and 130th which is dead last with 96.8 penalty yards per game.
The Jags are only averaging about 20 more yards rushing than they do in penalties. The teams leading rusher only has 164 yards through 5 games, or 32.8 yards per game.
Quarterback Shai Werts leads the Eagles with 369 yards and six touchdowns rushing on the season with Wesley Fields with 298 yards and one touchdown on the season. Werts has only thrown 27 passes on the season and has completed 14 of them for 264 yards and three touchdowns. So they don’t throw much, but when they do they are averaging almost 20 yards per reception.
On the flip side, the Jags Jamarius Way has emerged as the top receiver on the team with 500 receiving yards on 35 catches for two touchdowns. The next closest receiver is running back Kawaan Baker who has 16 receptions for 186 yards and three touchdowns.
Defensively the Jags safety, Nigel Lawrence leads the team with 48 total tackles, which indicates how much success offenses have had against this defense. The next closest defender, Nick Mobley, has 26 stops on the season.
But Nigel was helped off the field last week with a knee injury, it’s uncertain the extent of the injury but at a minimum he will miss a couple weeks if it is not a season ending injury. Add in linebacker Riley Cole’s knee injury keeping him sidelined and you start to see the Jags injury bug showing itself once again.
The line opened with GSU as a 13 point favorite in the game. It may be a conservative line with the Jags history against the triple option and porous run defense.
I really hope to that I am proven wrong but from what I have seen this season, I cannot confidently go with the Jags to cover much less win outright in this game. Again, I would love to be shown wrong, but key injuries along with the scheme and the love affair with the yellow hankies all add up to a recipe that just doesn’t taste well for a Jaguar fan.
The game can be seen on ESPN3 with kickoff scheduled for 2:30pm in Statesboro, Georgia.
Go Jags!
Inside the Numbers: