Preview: South Alabama Goes For Ninth Win Of The Season At Southern Miss
Kickoff: Saturday, November 19, 2:30pm
Venue: M. M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg, Mississippi
TV/Streaming: ESPNU
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
Thunderjags Twitter: @USAThunderjags
#5 Jersey: Jamie Sheriff
South Alabama is in new, uncharted territory for the football program.
After the win over Georgia Southern two weeks ago, every new win they notch they break the previous record for wins they themselves set just the week prior. In 2014 and 2016 the program achieved six wins and earned bowl berths. But both times they came up on the losing end in the bowl game and finished with six wins and seven loses. In 2013 the program earned finished 6-6 and were not invited to go bowling.
This season, the second under head coach Kane Wommack, the program has smashed that glass ceiling.
They guaranteed themselves a winning regular season record when they defeated Georgia Southern for the program record seventh win of the season. Just one week later, this past Saturday, they guaranteed themselves an overall winning season by setting the bar one rung higher with eight regular season wins.
This Saturday they travel to Hattiesburg, Mississippi with an opportunity to set that bar one rung higher with a ninth regular-season victory with a win over Southern Miss.
In order to earn win number eight, the script from the previous two wins had to be flipped. It wasn’t the La’Damian Webb show this time. It wasn’t even a dominant rushing attack that gave the Jags the win.
The Jags offense took to the air to topple Texas State.
Carter Bradley tied a single-game record with a career-high four touchdown passes as he threw for 274 yards in the 38-21 win. It wasn’t Jalen Wayne who stepped up big for the Jags, he was kept as mostly a non-factor with only three catches for 27 yards in the game. Neither was it Caullin Lacy, though he did catch three passes for 58 yards and a touchdown.
Devin Voisin was the one who . He caught six passes for 118 yards and two touchdowns, both career highs.
The diversity that the Jags have shown throughout the season as they have navigated their schedule and sit here with eight wins is a testament to all the hard work that has been put into this program. When a good Texas State defense limited the rushing attack and then neutralized Wayne and kept Lacy mostly at bay, it was Devin Voisin who stepped up and made the plays that mattered.
South Alabama remains tied atop the Sun Belt Conference West Division standings. Troy holds the tiebreaker for winning the head-to-head meeting between the two. In order for the Jags to overtake them they need to win both of their remaining games against Southern Miss and Old Dominion. They also need either Louisiana-Monroe or Arkansas State to pull an upset on Troy in the final two weeks of play.
But the Jags can only control what’s in their path.
In their path this week is Southern Miss.
Southern Miss (5-5, 3-3 SBC)
The Golden Eagles have been an up and down team this season. They began the year two-consecutive losses. A 29-27 4OT loss at home to Liberty and a 30-7 loss at Miami (FL).
The Golden Eagles got back to .500 with a 64-10 win over Northwestern State and upset a strong Tulane team (who are currently 8-2 and ranked #21 in the latest AP Poll).
They then lost a 27-10 decision in Troy before three consecutive wins over Sun Belt foes Arkansas State (20-19), Texas State (20-14), and Louisiana-Lafayette (39-24).
The Golden Eagles are riding a two-game losing streak coming into this matchup with a 42-14 home loss to another up-and-down team in Georgia State and a 26-23 loss to Eastern Division Champs Coastal Carolina in Conway, South Carolina.
Offense
Southern Miss is averaging 25.1 points, 324.6 total yards, 213.2 passing yards, 111.4 rushing yards, and 28:40 time of possession per game. They are converting 51-of-144 (35.4%) on 3rd down and 10-of-16 (62.5%) on 4th down.
They have scored 22 times out of their 29 trips into their opponents red zone, with only 12 of them being touchdowns.
Head coach Will Hall has been playing musical quarterbacks with at least four different quarterbacks seeing playing time with at least two running backs throwing passes as well.
Freshman Zach Wilcke is the team’s leading quarterback statistically. He’s played in eight games and is 100-for-175 (57.1%) for 1,151 yards, eight touchdowns and nine interceptions on the season. Trey Lowe, a redshirt junior, is 27-of-54 for 458 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in four games played. Sophomore Jake Lange is 11-of-21 for 110 yards, with an interception and no touchdowns.
Jason Brownlee, a senior, leads the receiving corps with 44 catches for 687 yards with six touchdowns. Freshman Tiaquelin Mims has 23 catches for 361 yards and two touchdowns in six games played. Junior Jakarius Caston adds 22 catches for 272 yards with three touchdowns in seven games played. Sophomore running back Frank Gore Jr. has 16 catches for 177 yards. Cole Cavallo, a redshirt junior tight end, is next with 15 catches for 145 yards and a touchdown. Then 15 other players have caught passes, none with double-digit receptions nor over 87 yards receiving.
Frank Gore Jr. leads the team rushing with 788 yards on 163 carries with five touchdowns. Janari Dean has 134 yards on 48 carries and three touchdowns in eight games played. Out of 13 runners with carries, none have netted over 69 yards rushing with only four of them logging game time in all 10 games.
Defense
The Golden Eagle defense is allowing an averaging of 24.5 points, 377.0 total yards, 236.2 passing yards, 140.8 rushing yards, and 31:20 time of possession per game.
Opponents are converting 55-of-152 (36.2%) on 3rd down and 3-of-18 (16.7%) on 4th down attempts for the season.
When teams get into the red zone, they have scored 27 times out of the 31 trips with 19 of them being touchdowns.
Malik Shorts leads the team with 74 total stops, 43 of them solo, with a team co-leading three interceptions. Averie Habas and Dominic Quewon co-lead the team with 9.5 sacks each, Quewon leads the team with 8.5 sacks a full five sacks more than the next defender. Jay Stanley is the other co-leader with three interceptions while adding five pass breakups, three forced fumbles and a fumble recovery.
Special Teams
Briggs Bourgeois is 13-of-14 placekicking this season with a long of 53 yards. He’s also 27-of-28 on extra points.
Mason Hunt is averaging 42.8 yards per punt with a long of 59 yards, 15 kicks of 50+ yards, 23 downed inside the 20, 22 fair catches, and only eight touchbacks.
South Alabama (8-2, 5-1 SBC)
Offense
The Jags offense is averaging 32.9 points, 427.6 total yards, 266.3 passing yards, 161.3 rushing yards, and 32:29 time of possession per game. They are converting 63-of-148 (42.6%) on 3rd down and 12-of-19 (63.2%) on 4th down for the season. They converted all six 4th down attempts against Texas State.
Out of 43 trips into the red zone, the Jags have scored 36 times with 27 of them being touchdowns.
Carter Bradley’s numbers are now 208-of-323 (64.4%) for 2,555 yards, 19 touchdowns, and seven interceptions for the season.
The top three receivers stay bunched up with very similar numbers. Jalen Wayne has 49 catches for 697 yards and 7 touchdowns. Caullin Lacy has 51 catches for 673 yards and 4 touchdowns. Devin Voisin has 44 catches for 585 yards and three touchdowns.
La’Damian Webb has 941 yards on 179 carries with 13 touchdowns for the season. Marco Lee adds 214 yards on 58 carries with four touchdowns. Omni Wells has 180 yards on 41 carries and Braylon McReynolds has 155 yards on 30 carries.
Defense
The Jags allow an average of 19.3 points, 295.2 total yards, 209.9 passing yards, 85.3 rushing yards, and 27:01 time of possession per game through ten games this season. They are allowing opponents to convert a mere 36-of-134 (26.9%) on 3rd down and 12-of-21 (57.1%) on 4th down attempts.
Opponents have had the ball in the red zone 29 times this season and came away with points on 22 of those trips with only 15 of them being touchdowns.
James Miller (58 total stops, 35 solo) continues to hold onto a narrow lead over Trey Kiser (57 total stops, 43 solo) in tackles. Kiser is the team co-lead with CJ Rias in tackles for loss with nine each. Jamie Sheriff holds onto the team lead in sacks with 5, but Rias is right behind him with four on the season. Yam Banks leads the team with five interceptions. Ke’Shun Brown has two, including a game-sealing pick-six against Texas State.
Special Teams
Diego Guajardo saw his first missed field goal of the season. He is now 13-of-14 on the season with a long of 48. He’s only missed one of his 39 extra point attempts on the season as well.
Jack Brooks is averaging 42.2 yards per punt on 49 punts this season. He has a long of 58 yards with 16 kicks downed inside the 20, 10 fair caught, 7 kicks of 50+ yards, and only two touchbacks.
Keys to the Game
Quick Start
When the Jags jump out with a quick start to the game, they have performed exceptionally well this season. Last week was no exception with a 41-yard touchdown pass on the fourth play of the game. The defense also got onto the early jump bandwagon when James Miller sacked quarterback Layne Hatcher on the first defensive play.
They worked up a 17-0 lead at halftime, which they needed as the Jags went score for score against the Bobcats in the second half to win by that margin, 38-21.
If the Bobcats had discovered Josh Berry’s running ability earlier in the game we may have been talking about a much closer game on the scoreboard.
That fast start was the difference and has been a big help in most games this season.
Adjusting To Whichever USM Team Shows Up
There’s no way around it, Southern Miss has been a bit of Jekyll and Hyde this year. Just look at their win over Tulane and contrast it will their whipping they suffered at the hands of Georgia State.
Head coach Will Hall has played four or five different quarterbacks on the year. Frank Gore Jr. has more passing attempts than all of South Alabama’s quarterbacks not named Carter Bradley.
Only 5 receivers out of the 20 receivers on the squad with a reception on the season have played all 10 games.
Additionally, only 5 players out of the 15 players on the team with a rushing attempt on the season have played in all 10 games this season as well.
Despite all of this coach Hall has his team one win away from bowl eligibility with an even mark overall on the season and in conference play.
While the Jaguar defense has made some great adjustments this season (hello second half against Georgia Southern), they have also shown they aren’t flawless (hello second half against Texas State).
But throughout it all the defense has remained elite.
This team has lived the mantra of LEO, Love Each Other, every step of the way. When the defense had it’s struggles, the offense kept scoring. When the offense couldn’t close out the game, the defense stepped in.
Stay Healthy (and leaning on more than one running back)
This keeps cropping up in my list as it stays in my mind as one of the top three keys to Jaguar victories. If they stay healthy, there’s not many teams on the schedule that can beat them.
I was concerned about the spike in La’Damian Webb’s usage over the previous two weeks just from a wear and tear angle. The coaches don’t seem too concerned about the injury that had them keep him out of the remainder of the game last week. But I feel it underscores the urgency of developing a clear #2 back that can pick up where Webb leaves off with little dropoff.
We saw a flash of potential against Louisiana-Monroe when Marco Lee and Omni Wells rushed for 93 and 85 yards respectively after Webb left the game on the first drive with an injury. But we have not seen that kind of rushing productivity out of the pair since. We haven’t seen it from Braylon McReynolds either, though he missed a few games with injuries himself.
The closest we have seen has been 57 yards from Marco Lee last week against Texas State, then McReynolds with 42 against Georgia Southern before that.
I have no doubt that coach Wommack, offensive coordinator Major Applewhite, and the rest of the staff have detailed plans to work into the overall gameplan if Webb is limited or additional injuries occur. But, on the outside looking in, boy would I like to have see more in the stat logs and in game play in case that was to happen.
Prediction
Which Southern Miss team do you get on Saturday will be key. The Jags hold a 2-0 advantage over Southern Miss. They completed a home-and-home series last season before the Golden Eagles flew the coup from Conference USA to the Sun Belt.
Coach Will Hall is leaving no stone unturned in his quest to turn the USM program around. He’s making progress too.
But Hall’s progress is nowhere near the progress that coach Wommack has made.
South Alabama is favored by 7.5 points according to handicapping websites. I think the Jags win and also cover the spread.
Preview: South Alabama Looking For 3rd Consecutive Win Over Arkansas State On Homecoming
Kickoff: Saturday October 30, 4:00pm
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
Thunderjags Twitter: @USAThunderjags
South Alabama ran into a fired-up ULM team last week that put up season-high numbers on the Jags defense. It was uncharacteristic of the defense to struggle as much as they did against the ULM offense.
But credit is due to ULM (4-3, 2-2 SBC) and offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez for scheming a game plan and preparing their players for the Jaguars (4-3, 1-3 SBC) defense.
ULM put up 554 total yards of offense on the Jaguars with 369 yards coming through the air.
USA only managed to briefly seize control of the momentum in the game in the third quarter against ULM. They opened the half with a 10 play, 75 yard touchdown drive to tie the game. The defense held on a 4th and 3 at the Jags 34 yard line to give the ball back to the offense. Then the offense only took four plays to cover the 66 yards, the final 40 via a touchdown pass to Jalen Tolbert.
It seemed at that time that the halftime adjustments had cured the ills.
But ULM took the ball on the ensuing kickoff and responded to the Jags two-consecutive scores with a touchdown of their own to tie the game again.
The Warhawks had retaken the momentum and would not relinquish it.
Arkansas State
South Alabama’s next opportunity to get a game closer to bowl eligibility comes up this weekend. The Jags will host Arkansas State (1-6, 0-3 SBC) for their annual homecoming on Saturday.
Last season the Jags notched their first win in Jonesboro in four tries. It marked the Jags first two-game winning streak against the Red Wolves and the third win in the last four meetings.
Overall the Jags still trail in the series 3 games to 6.
Gone is coach Blake Anderson. His replacement is former Tennessee head coach Butch Jones and most recently University of Alabama analyst.
However the Butch Jones tenure is off to a rough start.
The Red Wolves are off to a 1-6 start to the season. But they’ve had some close calls. They came up short in a shootout against Memphis 55-50, on the road against Tulsa 41-34, and just last week they fell to Louisiana-Lafayette 28-27 coming off their bye week.
But they’ve also been on the wrong side of some blowouts too. They fell to Washington 52-3, to Georgia Southern 59-33, and to Coastal Carolina 52-20.
Each week you’re not quite sure which team you’re going to get.
Offense
Arkansas State averages 29.6 points per game, 436.3 total yards, 348.6 passing yards, and 87.7 rushing yards per game.
They are converting 36-of-99 3rd down attempts (36%) and 1-of-7 4th down attempts (14%) on the season.
The quarterback has been sacked 26 times on the season for a loss of 140 yards. That’s an average of 3.7 sacks per game.
They have turned the ball over 11 times on the season, seven interceptions and four fumbles lost of their eight total fumbles.
Their top three running backs are all within a couple carries of each other. Lincoln Pare has 41 carries for 205 yards and a touchdown, Johnnie Lang has 44 carries for 172 yards, and Alan Lamar have 40 carries for 120 yards and a touchdown.
The Red Wolves do not have as much of a two-quarterback system as they have utilized under coach Anderson. However they are still utilizing a two quarterback system.
James Blackman is 109-of-184 (59.2%) for 1,334 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions on the season. Layne Hatcher is 78-of-139 (56.1%) for 1,106 yards, 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. Each quarterback have missed a game each.
ASU has a long list of receivers with catches. Three of them stand out from the rest. Corey Rucker has 35 catches for 550 yards and eight touchdowns. Te’Vaila Hunt has 32 catches for 511 yards and four touchdowns. Jeff Foreman has 24 catches for 419 yards and two touchdowns. Four other receivers have over 100 receiving yards on the season and five receivers beyond the three mentioned have double-digit numbers of receptions.
Lamar is the team leader with 900 all-purpose yards with 690 of them coming from kickoff returns. That includes a 93 yard kickoff return for a touchdown against Tulsa.
The Red Wolves have rushed for over 100 yards in a game twice. In their only win of the season they rushed for 194 yards against Central Arkansas. The other time was last weeks close game against Louisiana where they ran for 113 yards.
Defense
The defense has really been the Achilles heel for the Red Wolves. Particularly their run defense it seems.
Lets delve into the statistics first.
The defense is allowing a whopping average of 44 points per game.
On average the defense is allowing 578.6 total yards of offense, 288 yards passing and 290.6 yards rushing per game this season.
As a defensive coach those numbers make you cringe a bit. As an offensive coach I’m sure that makes you smile.
Opponents are converting 36-of-87 3rd down attempts (41%) and 5-of-6 4th down attempts (83%).
Safety Elery Alexander leads the team with 50 total tackles, 31 solo with a sack and two fumble recoveries.
The next closest defender is linebacker Caleb Bonner with 39 stops, 16 solo.
Georgia Southern ran for 503 yards and averaged 9.9 yards per rush. Coastal Carolina rushed for 294 yards and 8.2 yards per rush. Louisiana ran for 424 yards and 8.0 yards per rush. Tulsa ran for 308 yards and 6.3 yards per rush.
Louisiana only threw the ball 20 times in the game with 11 completions for 122 yards. Their final drive was a gruelling 18 play, 88 yard march burning 10:26 off the clock before they took two knees to end the game.
Special Teams
Blake Grupe is 22-of-23 on extra points and 10-of-12 on field goals for the season. His long is a 50 yarder against Tulsa.
Ryan Hanson has 42 punts on the season and is averaging 43.3 yards per attempt. He has 9 punts that have gone 50+ yards, the longest being a 60 yard kick. He has 16 of them inside the 20 yard line and none have been touchbacks.
South Alabama
Good news was that some injured players returned to the lineup for the Jags. Kareem Walker, Caullin Lacy were among those who returned.
However with the good also comes some bad. They lost Hadon Merchant to a knee injury early in the game. At a minimum he’s going to miss some time and could possibly miss the remainder of the season.
Also at practice during in the week leading up to the ULM game Josh McCulloch suffered an injury that kept him sidelined. It’s unknown if McCulloch will be ready for the Red Wolves.
But others continued to be hampered by lingering issues. Jamal Brooks was one of those who had to leave the ULM game a few times but tried to play through the pain.
Offense
South Alabama is averaging 28.9 points, 390.7 total yards, 263 passing yards, and 127.7 rushing yards per game on offense.
Their third down efficiency needs improvement. They are converting 38-of-101 (38%) 3rd down attempts on the season. They are converting 11-of-17 (65%) 4th down attempts on the season. That includes the 4th and 3 near the goal line last Saturday that went for a touchdown.
The Jags have converted 26-of-31 (84%) of their red zone trips into scores. Of those 26 scores, 22 (71%) of them have been touchdowns.
Jaguar quarterbacks have been sacked 14 times for a loss of 88 yards on the season.
Terrion Avery leads the Jaguar backfield with 286 yards on 73 carries with a touchdown. Bryan Hill is next with 224 yards on 57 carries through five games with three touchdowns. Kareem Walker has 211 yards on 58 carries and four touchdowns in only four games.
Jake Bentley is completing 69.1% of his throws. He is 152-of-220 for 1,825 yards, 11 touchdowns and four interceptions.
Jalen Tolbert is far and away the leading pass catcher in the offense. He has 46 receptions for 873 yards and four touchdowns. That averages out to be 124.7 yards per game and 19 yards per catch.
Jalen Wayne has 343 yards on 29 catches with two touchdowns. Caullin Lacy has 27 catches for 223 yards. Tight end Lincoln Sefcik has 12 catches for 114 yards and three touchdowns.
As mentioned above, the Jags offensive line has suffered more than their share of injuries this season. However there’s a good chance that James Jackson could return to action this week. If so that would allow Trey Simpson to move back over to left guard.
Defense
The Jaguars are allowing an average of 22.1 points, 334.6 total yards, 204.6 passing yards, and 130 rushing yards per game. Which rank nationally at T43rd, T35th, 40th, T40th respectively.
The Jags defense has 13 takeaways which is tied for 24th nationally.
Keith Gallmon and Yam Banks are tied for the lead with 34 total stops each. Both has 20 solo stops each. Gallmon has 2.5 tackles for loss, an interception and a fumble recovery. Banks has 4 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles.
CJ Rias continues to lead the defense with three sacks on the season. Tre Young also continues to lead the defense with two interceptions.
Special Teams
Jack Brooks has punted 31 times with an average of 41.9 yards per punt. Eight downed inside the 20, 11 fair caught, six have gone 50+ yards and his longest has gone 54 yards.
Diego Guajardo is 22-of-24 on extra point attempts. He is 8-of-12 in field goal attempts, missing one attempt in each of the last four games. His long on the season in 48 yards.
Keys to the Game
Consistent Execution
In every game, except maybe the Georgia Southern game, the Jags have had stretches with some quite poor execution. In the first five games, the Jags opening possession all ended with three-and-outs.
Against ULM the defense couldn’t execute well enough to stop the Warhawks passing game taking advantage of seams in the coverage.
The only game where the Jags executed consistently for the most part was against Georgia Southern. And you can see what they are capable of when they do.
Stay Healthy
Many teams are bruised and beat up by this point in the season.
The Jags are no exception. And they may be more bruised and beat up than a few others.
They need to get through a week without accumulating more injuries, especially on the offensive line. But the linebacker corps could use a break from the injuries as well.
Flying Footballs
There is no denying that Jalen Tolbert is a beast.
Arkansas State is particularly bad at defending the pass. This could set up for a huge game for Jake Bentley, Jalen Tolbert, and the rest of the Jaguar receivers.
But Arkansas get most of their offensive yards through the air themselves. After ULM’s slicing and dicing of the Jaguar secondary, this should be of some concern.
Prediction
The Jags chances are growing fewer by the game. If they want to attain bowl eligibility that is. Arkansas State looks like they should be a team the Jags can and should win against.
However last week the Jags were a double-digit favorite and we see how that turned out. You simply cannot take anything for granted.
As we keep pointing out, the final three or four games are brutal. And as it stands right now they will need to find at least one win out of those four to get bowl eligible.
Three consecutive weeks of travel to rival Troy, App State, and SEC opponent Tennessee is followed by the regular season finale against Coastal Carolina at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
But we can’t lose focus on this week. Arkansas State is coming and the Jags need a win.
The Jags are favored in the game by 9.5 points. Last week I had a bad feeling about the game. I picked the Jags to win but not to cover. Well, I was a bit wrong.
This week I feel a bit better. The Jags will be at home, not playing in Monroe, LA. It’s homecoming and the opposing team’s rush defense is particularly weak and has a weak rushing offense.
If the Jags secondary can hold up against the Red Wolves passing, they can win the game. But as we saw last week, the Jags had better be prepared.
I think the Jags win, but they don’t cover. It may come down to a defensive stand late in the game or Diego’s leg once again. It could also be a one sided affair, it really depends on which Jaguar team and which Red Wolves team show up at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
Go Jags!