Preview: South Alabama Looks To Rebound From Loss At Arkansas State
Kickoff: Saturday, October 29, 3:00pm
Venue: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, Arkansas
TV/Streaming: ESPNU
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
Thunderjags Twitter: @USAThunderjags
#5 Jersey: Jack Brooks
The 10-6 Jags loss at home to Troy was a tough fought slugfest. The Jags offense went from 615 yards of offense the week before to just 246 against the Trojans. The Trojans front seven were in the backfield all night blowing up rushing attempts and pressuring and hitting Bradley. There were a few times that Bradley was a bit slow getting up after some punishing blows too.
The Jaguar defense was gritty and tough as well, holding the Trojans to 266 total yards of offense.
But some questionable officiating left many scratching their heads. But at the end of the day complaining about officiating will get you nowhere. You just have to elevate your play and leave do doubt who the better team is. Ultimately Troy was able to execute their gameplan to limit the Jags offensive plays and shortening the game.
Now the Jags Western division fate is partially out of their hands, yet they still control one aspect of their destiny: how they respond.
The remaining games on their schedule are still very winnable and they can still finish the regular season with 10 wins.
But head coach Kane Wommack’s process driven approach will have his team focusing on Arkansas State and only Arkansas State. They don’t set goals like getting to the conference championship game. Part of their approach is that, if they win, those things will take care of themself.
The Jags hold a 6-4 advantage over the Red Wolves, including winning the last three match-ups between the two programs. Jalen Tolbert was instrumental in those three wins.
Who will step up and fill those cleats in torching the Red Wolves secondary? Hopefully each of the big three have a great day on Saturday.
Arkansas State (2-6, 1-4 SBC)
The second season under Butch Jones isn’t going quite like the Red Wolves faithful had hoped. Just when it looked like Jones and his staff were getting things worked out and in order, the injury bug hits and it hit hard.
Jaguar fans can commiserate with them over the years too.
They have wins over Grambling State and ULM to their record. They had some close losses to Old Dominion (29-26) and Southern Miss (20-19). Their other losses have been to Ohio State, Memphis, James Madison and just last weekend Louisiana-Lafayette.
In all the Red Wolves were missing three cornerbacks, the starting quarterback, and the rotational running back at Lafayette. Jones went into the game playing the backup quarterback, but then he suffered an injury in the third quarter and had to turn to a true freshman. Not to mention one of their offensive linemen is playing with a broken foot.
Throw on top of the laundry list of injuries that their roster consists of about 70 freshmen and sophomores.
Unlike “It’s a Wonderful Life” where they say “every time a bell rings an angel gets it’s wings”, with the Red Wolves it’s “every time there’s an injury, another redshirt is burnt.” Not nearly as catchy.
According to Jones, quarterback James Blackman is expected to return to play. However this could be more gamesmanship to force the Jags to prepare for two different quarterbacks.
Offense
The Red Wolves are averaging 28.8 points, 349.3 total yards, 242.8 passing, 106.5 rushing, and 31:30 time of possession per game. They are converting 41-of-117 of their 3rd down attempts (35%) and 10-of-16 of their 4th down attempts (62.5%) on the year.
The Red Wolves have been in the red zone 28 times and have scored 25 of those trips, 18 of them being touchdowns though.
They’ve fumbled nine times and lost three of them and have only thrown two interceptions all season. They average 5.1 yards per play, which is a pretty good stat on paper. It just hasn’t translated well in the win/loss columns.
James Blackman leads the quarterbacks going 149-of-215 (69.3%) for 1,695 yards, 11 touchdowns and an interception. AJ Mayer is 18-of-38 for 213 yards and a touchdown. Jaxon Dailey is 5-of-9 for 34 yards in only two appearances this season.
Seydou Traore is the leading receiver with 31 catches for 474 yards and three touchdowns. Champ Flemings has 29 catches for 352 yards and a touchdown. Jeff Foreman has 16 catches for 321 yards and a team leading four touchdowns. Three other receivers have over 100 yards receiving on the season.
Johnnie Lang leads the running backs with 313 yards on 82 attempts with two touchdowns. Brian Snead has 277 yards on 74 carries with six touchdowns. Two other players have over 100 yards rushing, one of them is quarterback AJ Mayer.
Defense
They are allowing on average 31.1 points, 409 total yards, 260.8 passing, 148.3 rushing yards, and 28:30 time of possession per game. Opponents are converting 40-of-107 (37.4%) of their 3rd down attempts and 9-of-14 (64.3%) of their 4th down attempts. Of the 20 trips into the red zone, opponents have scored 18 times with only two of them being field goals.
They have forced 16 fumbles but have only recovered four of them while also gathering three interceptions.
Jordan Carmouche leads the team with 54 total stops, 21 of them solo and a tied for the team lead with 5.5 tackles for loss. Trevian Thomas is next with 46 total stops, 28 solo, and is co-leader in tackles for loss with Carmouche with 5.5. Dennard Flower leads the team with three sacks, followed by Kivon Bennett with 2.5 sacks. Safety Eddie Smith leads the team with two interceptions.
Special Teams
Dominic Zvada is a perfect 12-of-12 on the season with a long of 46 yards, and has made 23-of-24 extra point attempts. Ryan Hanson is averaging 44.1 yards per punt with 12 downed inside the 20, 7 of 50+ yards, 8 fair catches, 1 touchback and a long of 68 yards over his 32 punts this season.
Johnnie Lang has a kickoff return for a touchdown on the season and is averaging 26.6 yards per return.
South Alabama (5-2, 2-1 SBC)
The Jags got help from a couple of players that they were unsure would be able to go. La’Damian Webb was able to play but was unable to be effective in the game. DJ Thomas-Jones was able to return after collapsing on the sidelines earlier this season and having a battery of tests run to ensure he was healthy to return to play, but only managed one catch.
Quentin Wilfawn returned to play but seemed to have missed some time or possibly the remainder of the game after aggravating his shoulder injury.
Offense
At this point in the season the Jags are averaging 31.7 points, 431.4 total yards, 288.1 passing yards, 143.3 rushing yards, and 31:10 time of possession per game. They are converting 47-of-101 of their 3rd down attempts (46.5%) and 3-of-8 of their 4th down attempts (37.5%).
Of their 30 trips into the red zone, they have scored 25 times with 18 of them being touchdowns.
Jags players have fumbled only four times on the season and lost two of them. Only five passes have been intercepted on the season as well for a total of only seven turnovers.
Carter Bradley is 155-of-238 for 1,909 yards, 13 touchdowns and five interceptions on the season as the leading signal caller.
Jalen Wayne leads the Jaguar trio of receivers with 559 receiving yards and five touchdowns on his 40 receptions. Caullin Lacy leads the trio in receptions with 42, for 553 yards and three touchdowns. Devin Voisin, who’s been clutch over the last few games, has 35 catches for 427 yards and a touchdown.
La’Damian Webb leads the team with 487 yards rushing on 100 carries with six touchdowns. Omni Wells has 156 yards on 34 carries. Marco Lee has 140 yards on 35 carries with four touchdowns. Braylon McReynolds has 104 yards on 18 attempts in the first five games of the season before missing the last couple of games with an injury.
Defense
The Jags are allowing an average of only 19.7 points, 314 total yards, 214.4 passing, 99.6 rushing yards, and 28:07 time of possession per game. Opposing teams are converting 27-of-93 of their 3rd down attempts (29%) and 9-of-15 of their 4th down attempts (60%).
Teams have been in the red zone 21 times on this defense and came away with points on 15 of those trips with only 10 of them being touchdowns.
James Miller and Jaden Voisin are the co-leaders on defense with 36 stops each, both of them with 21 solo. Trey Kiser is next in line with 35 stops, 25 solo.
CJ Rias leads the team with 5 tackles for loss and also with tree sacks on the season.
Yam Banks added a fourth interception against the Trojans to extend his team lead. Jaden Voisin, AJ DeShazor, Ke’Shun Brown, Darrell Luter Jr and CJ Thompson all have one pick each.
Special Teams
Diego Guajardo is a perfect 11-of-11 on the season with a long of 48 on field goals. He also has only missed one of his 26 extra point attempts on the season.
Jack Brooks is averaging 41.7 yards per punt across his 33 kicks this season. He has 12 downed inside the 20, 8 fair caught, 6 kicks of 50+ yards and two touchbacks. Brooks, who is the oldest Jaguar on the squad at 29, will be recognized for his contributions to the team by wearing the honorary #5 jersey. The Wagga Wagga, Australia native is in his fourth season with the Jags. Thanks to covid eligibility rules changes, he will be eligible to return and play a fifth season if he wants.
Keys to the Game
Responding to Adversity
The biggest game is always the next one.
The Jags responded well after their only other loss this season. They came out with a vengeance and earned a 38-14 win over Louisiana Tech. But Arkansas State will be looking to turn their ship around and break their losing streak to the Jags now that their nemesis, Jalen Tolbert, is gone.
Injuries
The Jags have been plagued by injuries to some key contributors this season. No one wants to be bitten by the dreaded injury bug, and so far the Jags have managed to avoid an injury bug infestation (knock on wood). Hopefully the players will be able to return sooner rather than later.
But staying healthy is key for a physical team like the Jags.
Attrition in the running back corps led the Jags to have only two running backs available against ULM. Terrion Avery left the team, McReynolds has not been able to play the last couple of games, then Webb was injured on the first possession against ULM.
Webb managed to return last week and Brian Hill suited up from the practice squad to provide extra depth in case Webb was unable to go. McReynolds may be able to return this week, we probably won’t know until pregame warmups if he made the trip with the team and if he’s suiting up.
Offensive Line
The offensive line was pushed around by Troy. The Jags couldn’t get their running game going and they couldn’t protect Bradley consistently. They’ve played great early in the season and especially against UCLA.
The team needs them to return to early season form. They’ll have a good opportunity against Arkansas State with their injury situation.
Prediction
Can Jalen Wayne be the next Jalen that induces a years worth of nightmares like his departed brethren Jalen Tolbert had for the previous three years? Will the next monster of the Red Wolves nightmares be Caullin Lacy or Devin Voisin? This game will be on Halloween weekend, you know.
The spread opened around 9.5 points in favor of South Alabama and has gone up to 12.5 points in favor of the Jags.
The Jags are 0-3 against the spread over the last three games against Lafayette, Monroe, and Troy.
This is another nationally televised game, the third consecutive actually, and the Jags will be looking to make a statement after falling to Troy. I think the Jags win and cover the spread in this one.
We’ll know Saturday night if and who the Red Wolves will have nightmares about until the next meeting.
Go Jags!