Preview: South Alabama Travels To Arkansas State In West Division Showdown
Kickoff: Saturday, October 6, 6pm
Venue: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
Thunderjags on X (formerly known as Twitter): @USAThunderjags
#5 Jersey: TBA
South Alabama went to LSU last Saturday and was in the game for about three plays. Well, technically it was about nine plays, but it only took LSU three offensive snaps to really show where the game was going. On those three plays they gained 158 yards and put two touchdowns on the scoreboard.
The Jags (2-3, 1-0 Sun Belt) could never really mount a comeback after that as LSU (4-1) showed they had the bigger, stronger, faster team on Saturday night in Tiger Stadium.
The Jaguar offense protected the ball very well, the defense generated two turnovers to further bolster their turnover margin on the season to +7 after picking off Garrett Nussmeier twice in the contest. Neither Gio Lopez nor Bishop Davenport have thrown an interception this season, which makes the Jags one of only five schools who haven’t had a pass intercepted yet on the season.
Now that the Jags have concluded their non-conference slate, the focus is now on the remaining seven games that are all conference contests. Next up in Arkansas State (2-2, 0-0).
Arkansas State
The Red Wolves are led by fourth-year head coach Butch Jones. He holds a 13-28 record at ASU with a 6-18 conference record since taking over the program. The win total has improved each season under his leadership and led them to the Camellia Bowl last season (loss to Northern Illinois 21-19).
Over his 14 seasons as a head coach, Jones is 97-82 with previous stops at Central Michigan (2007-2009), Cincinnati (2010-2012), and Tennessee (2013-2017). He served as an offensive analyst and special assistant to the head coach at Alabama from 2018-2020.
Last season the Jags earned a hard-fought victory over the Red Wolves in Mobile when they needed to win two of the last three in order to get bowl eligible.
Arkansas State (2-2, 0-0 SBC) opened the season with a pair of close wins over FCS Central Arkansas and Tulsa but have lost their last two matchups at #16 Michigan (28-18) and at Iowa State (52-7).
So far this season the Red Wolves have a turnover margin of -2. They have given the ball away on 5 interceptions and lost four fumbles while the defense has taken the ball away from opponents six times by interception and only recovered one fumble.
Offense
The Red Wolves offense is under the direction of Keith Heckendorf in his sixth season at the position. He held the position for the two years before Jones took over. Under his guidance, the Red Wolves offense has put up lots of numbers through the air. True freshman Jaylen Raynor was the first true-freshman quarterback to be named SBC Freshman of the Year since 2007 and only the second in conference history. He finished with 2,543 yards passing with 17 touchdowns along with 380 yards rushing and five more touchdowns.
Raynor is 69-of-128 for 780 yards with 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions passing and is leading the rushing attack with 143 yards on 44 carries with 2 touchdowns. Timmy McClain is 11-of-18 for 132 yards and three touchdowns in limited action, mostly when Raynor was benched against Iowa State.
Corey Rucker leads the receiving corps with 265 yards on 17 catches with 2 touchdowns. Courtney Jackson has 150 yards on 14 catches. Reagan Ealy has 140 yards on 11 catches.
Behind Raynor is Zak Wallace who has 134 yards on 40 carries with 2 touchdowns. Freshman Devin Spencer has 80 yards on 16 carries in three games. Junior Ja’Quez Cross has 61 yards on 21 carries.
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 21.8 |
| Total Offense | 328.8 |
| Passing Offense | 228 |
| Rushing Offense | 100.8 |
| Time of Possession | 29:28 |
| Penalty Yards | 53 |
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 31-of-71 (43.7%) |
| 4th Downs | 3-of-5 (60%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 8-of-9 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 6-of-9 |
| Penalties – Yards | 21 – 212 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 8 – 4 |
Coming off a bye week, the Red Wolves have a pair of offensive linemen who are trending towards returning to the lineup. Coming into the season Arkansas State expected to have a better running game but it has yet to appear.
Will they debut a more improved run game when the Jaguars come to town?
Defense
Defensive coordinator Rob Harley is in his fourth season as the defensive play caller for the Red Wolves. Statistically the defense had improved along with the results in the win-loss column. Their red zone defense improved by 82 spots in the national rankings as well as ranking 20th in the nation with an average of 6.8 Tackles for Loss per game.
Marvin Ham (R-Sr LB) and Justin Parks (Sr-Safety) pace the defense with 31 total stops each. Ham has 10 solo with a quarterback hurry, 2.5 TFL’s and .5 sacks. Parks has 15 solo, 1.5 TFL’s, a pass breakup and a forced fumble. Trevian Thomas is third on the team with 29 stops, 16 solo.
Thomas and Dontay Joyner are team co-leaders with 2 interceptions each. Two other defenders have one interception each.
Jayden Jones leads the team with 4 TFLs and 2 sacks.
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 33.8 |
| Total Offense | 429.8 |
| Passing Offense | 195.8 |
| Rushing Offense | 234 |
| Time of Possession | 30:31 |
| Penalty Yards | 50.3 |
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 24-of-49 (49%) |
| 4th Downs | 2-of-2 (100%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 15-of-15 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 13-of-15 |
| Penalties – Yards | 26 – 201 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 3 – 1 |
The Red Wolves defense also has a few players that have been out due to injuries. Unlike their offensive counterparts, their return seems to be less certain. Massachusetts transfer senior cornerback Jordan Mahoney and senior Texas A&M transfer defensive lineman Micaiah Overton are two key pieces the Red Wolves hope to return.
ASU has been susceptible to big, pass-catching tight ends. Could this be a game where Coach Applewhite and offensive coordinator Rob Ezell lean more on DJ Thomas-Jones?
Special Teams
Ryan Heicher is averaging 44.2 yards per punt attempt with 10 fair catches, 7 downed inside the 20, 4 kicks of 50+ yards and a long of 56 over his 20 kicks.
Clune Van Andel is 3-of-6 on his field goal attempts with a long of 44 yards and only 1-of-4 from 30+ yards out.
Courtney Jackson is averaging 17.5 yards per punt return over his 8 returns including one for a 77-yard touchdown.
South Alabama
The Jaguars record-setting run over the last two games came back to earth against LSU. While the Jags looked great against App State, a fellow Sun Belt program, they didn’t match up very well against one of the upper programs in the SEC.
The second half was a bit different, with the Jags scoring their only touchdown while holding LSU to only one touchdown.
This week will be more telling as the Jags return to conference play.
Offense
South Alabama couldn’t establish a running game and the LSU defense was able to routinely get pressure on Lopez and Davenport. The offensive line was outplayed at the line of scrimmage, but still look to be a really good group that have been improving week after week.
Lopez is 73-of-114 (64%) for 1,014 yards and 10 touchdowns through the air. Bishop Davenport is 27-of-45 (60%) for 276 yards and a touchdown.
Jamaal Pritchett, despite leaving the game early against LSU, still leads the team with 29 catches for 394 yards and 4 touchdowns. Devin Voisin is next on the team with 17 catches for 207 yards.
Anthony Eager has 114 yards on 5 catches with two touchdowns. He scored the only touchdown against LSU as he stepped up when Pritchett was unavailable.
Tight end DJ Thomas-Jones adds 60 yards on only 7 catches with 3 touchdowns.
True freshman Fluff Bothwell leads the team with 376 yards on 47 carries with 6 touchdowns. Kentrel Bullock has 260 yards on 39 carries with 3 touchdowns. Lopez in third on the team with 204 yards on 31 carries with 2 touchdowns.
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 40.6 |
| Total Offense | 468.8 |
| Passing Offense | 258 |
| Rushing Offense | 210.8 |
| Time of Possession | 31:19 |
| Penalty Yards | 58.8 |
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 25-of-61 (41%) |
| 4th Downs | 5-of-8 (62.5%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 23-of-25 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 18-of-25 |
| Penalties – Yards | 37 – 294 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 5 – 2 |
Defense
Blayne Myrick continues to lead the defense with 37 total stops, 12 solo, with 2 pass breakups, a TFL and a forced fumble. Jordan Scruggs is next with 25 total stops, 10 solo, with 1.5 TFL’s, a pass breakup and an interception.
Jaden Voisin leads the team with 2 interceptions and has 24 total stops, 16 solo. Scruggs, Amarion Fortenberry, Lardarius Webb Jr and Caldwell Chrystyile each have an interception.
Four Jags all share the lead with one sack each.
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 29 |
| Total Offense | 448.6 |
| Passing Offense | 303.4 |
| Rushing Offense | 145.2 |
| Time of Possession | 28:41 |
| Penalty Yards | 56.6 |
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 27-of-64 (42.2%) |
| 4th Downs | 1-of-4 (25%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 14-of-19 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 11-of-19 |
| Penalties – Yards | 31 – 283 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 5 – 3 |
Special Teams
Aleksi Pulkkinen handled all of the punting duties against LSU and is averaging 41 yards per kick with 7 downed inside the 20, 6 fair catches and 1 punt of 50 yards is his longest.
Laith Marjan is 6-of-7 on the season with a season long of 49 yards last week against LSU.
Jamaal Pritchett is averaging 28 yards per punt return over his 7 returns including one touchdown return of 62 yards.
Keys to the Game
Quarterback Pressure
In the two games prior to LSU the Jags defense generated more pressure on the quarterback and forced bad passes and even some interceptions. They didn’t allow the quarterback to hang in the pocket and wait for a receiver to get open to pick the defense apart.
Even the week before against Ohio, while they didn’t generate a lot of qb pressure, they started to generate some and it showed both on the scoreboard and on the stat sheet. Though they didn’t manage a win, they played well enough to win.
Against LSU the Jags only managed to get the slightest pressure on the qb and even then, they managed force a couple of incompletions and two interceptions.
Arkansas State is so predominantly a passing team that getting pressure on Raynor will be key to disrupt their game script and prevent them from running up-tempo to take advantage of matchups. Plus Raynor already has five interceptions on the season, the Jags could add to their interception column.
Establishing the Run
When the Jags can run the ball, their offense runs much more efficiently. The Red Wolves allow an average of almost 200 yards rushing per game. With Bullock, Bothwell, PJ Martin, and Braylon McReynolds, who we haven’t seen in a few games, South Alabama has a strong rotation of backs to keep fresh legs in the game and pound on the ASU defense.
Explosive Plays
Explosive plays have caused havoc against the South Alabama defense. In almost every game the defense has allowed an explosive play for a touchdown. Even against Northwestern State they gave up a 74-yard touchdown catch and run for the Demon’s only touchdown of the game.
Last week explosive plays doomed them from the start with a 71-yard touchdown pass and run on the first snap of the game. Then LSU’s second offensive snap they rush for 86 yards before being stopped at the 1-yard line (they scored on the very next play).
Prediction
South Alabama is a 2.5-point favorite against Arkansas State in Jonesboro. Only recently have the Jags found any success on the road in Arkansas. The Jags have won the previous two meetings in Jonesboro, however they were 0-for-4 at Centennial Bank Stadium prior to that. They’ve also won the five meetings overall between the two programs.
Arkansas State is not an easy place to play, or even to get to really. Which may be a reason why it’s a tough location to play.
While this isn’t the same Arkansas State team that the Jags have faced in Jonesboro that previous two match-ups there, they have improved somewhat.
Injury wise, the Jags are trending well this week. Jamaal Pritchett left the LSU game late in the first quarter and was in the concussion protocol returned to practice on Wednesday in a limited capacity. Cornerback Reggie Neely (ankle in the season opener) and safety Trent Singleton (R-So) transfer from Mississippi State (foot injury in preseason camp) are both expected to be available to play. Gio Lopez was pulled from the game in the fourth quarter after a sack, Applewhite explained that he got up “gimpy” so they took him out as a precaution.
I think the Jags win and cover. They have a lot to play for this season and they won’t let last week define their season.
Go Jags!