Preview: South Alabama Looking For First Win In San Marcos Against Texas State
Kickoff: Saturday, November 25, 6:00pm
Venue: Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, TX
TV/Streaming: NFL Network
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
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With the Jags back-to-back wins over the last two weeks, they have achieved bowl-eligibility with one game left in the season. These last two games have been won on the defensive side of the ball.
South Alabama (6-5, 4-3 Sun Belt) forced two takeaways on Marshall’s first two possessions last Saturday. Though the Jaguar offense was only able to capitalize with a pair of field goals, they set the tone for the game. The defense shut down the run game and the entire Marshall offense for most of the game.
Texas State (6-5, 3-4 SBC) started the season 4-1 but have sense gone 2-4 and dropped their last two games. Two weeks ago they fell to Coastal Carolina 31-23 but last week they were routed by Arkansas State 77-31. The Bobcats allowed 7 rushing touchdowns in the game. They allowed three defensive touchdowns (in the second half), and a 93-yard kick return touchdown in the third quarter.
The Bobcats gave up three scores of 40+ yard runs in the first half. Then allowed three touchdowns over a seven-minute span early in the third quarter to fall behind 56-17. The Red Wolves has back-to-back pick-sixes to go up 77-24 with 10:39 left in the game. The Red Wolves didn’t take a snap between 8:20 mark in the third quarter and the 6:19 mark in the fourth quarter.
Both teams are bowl eligible, but ending the season with a win has some huge upside. It helps secure a winning season, is more enticing for a bowl game to choose them, and gives momentum into post-season play.
The all-time record is even between South Alabama and Texas State. Homefield advantage is strong in this series. Each school is a perfect 4-0 playing at home. Half of the games have been decided by seven points or less. The Jags would love to break through and get their first road win against the Bobcats, like they were able to do against ULM a few weeks ago.
Texas State (6-5, 3-4 SBC)
Head coach GJ Kinne is in his first season as head coach of the Bobcats and only his second season as a head coach in his career. His first season as a head coach was at FCS Incarnate Word where he led the team to a 12-2 record (5-1 Southland Conference) with a season-ending loss in the FCS Division I semifinals and a #7 national ranking. The offense was ranked #1 in all of NCAA Division I – FBS and FCS – with 51.5 points and 581.2 yards per game.
Kinne came into Texas State and put together a newcomer class of 53 scholarship players which was rated by 247Sports as the program’s best in its FBS history. Kinne and the Bobcats grabbed attention in their season opener when they upset Baylor 42-31 for the program’s first win over a Power 5 program. They then scored 77 points in the home opener against Jackson State, which was one point shy of tying the program record for most points in a game.
The Bobcats have a turnover margin of -8 on the season. They’ve given the ball away 21 times total; eight interceptions and 13 fumbles lost. Defensively they’ve had 13 takeaways; they’ve intercepted five passes and recovered eight fumbles.
Offense
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 34.55 |
| Total Offense | 471.1 |
| Passing Offense | 272.91 |
| Rushing Offense | 198.2 |
| Time of Possession | 29:08 |
| Penalty Yards | 65.91 |
TJ Finley is 245-of-357 (68.63%) for 2,919 yards with 21 touchdowns to 7 interceptions on the season.
Joey Hobert leads the team with 71 catches for 847 yards and 8 touchdowns in 10 games. Ashtyn Hawkins has 688 yards on 47 catches with two touchdowns. Kole Wilson has 55 catches for 595 yards and 7 touchdowns.
Ismail Mahdi leads the team with 1,112 yards on 176 attempts with nine touchdowns. Donerio Daveport has 423 yards on 84 carries with two touchdowns. Malik Hornsby has 229 yards on 35 carries with 6 touchdowns. Finley sixth on the team with 101 yards on 65 carries with five touchdowns.
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 69-of-154 (44.81%) |
| 4th Downs | 19-of-30 (63.33%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 45-of-53 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 35-of-53 |
| Penalties – Yards | 77-725 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 20-13 |
Defense
| Stat | Average Allowed per Game |
| Points | 32.91 |
| Total Offense | 408.7 |
| Passing Offense | 244.0 |
| Rushing Offense | 164.7 |
| Time of Possession | 30:52 |
| Penalty Yards | 46.64 |
Brian Holloway leads the defense with 83 total stops, 45 solo, with a team leading 12.5 Tackles for Loss (TFL) and also a team leading two interceptions, with ½ sack, 8 quarterback hurries, three forced fumbles and two forced fumbles. Shawn Holton is next in line with 74 total stops (53 solo) with an interception, two pass breakups, and four forced fumbles. Kaleb Culp is third on the team with 64 total stops, 42 solo, with 1.5 TFS, five pass breakups, three fumble recoveries and a forced fumble.
Ben Bell is second on the team with 12 TFLs and leads the team with 7 sacks.
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 78-of-164 (47.56%) |
| 4th Downs | 13-of-30 (43.33%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 40-of-48 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 32-of-48 |
| Penalties – Yards | 61-513 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 22-8 |
Special Teams
Mason Shipley is a perfect 13-of-13 placekicking this season. His long on the year is 47 yards and hasn’t attempted a kick of 50+ yards on the season.
Seamus O’Kelly is averaging 41.33 yards per punt with a long of 55, 15 fair catches, five downed inside the 20 and five that have gone 50+ yards.
South Alabama (6-5, 4-3 SBC)
After having a turnover margin of +2 last week against Marshall, the Jags are no even for the season through 11 games. The Jags have given the ball away 17 times in total, nine interceptions and eight fumbles. Meanwhile the Jag defense has 17 total takeaways with 10 interceptions and seven fumble recoveries.
Offense
| Stat | Average per Game |
| Points | 29.73 |
| Total Offense | 420.3 |
| Passing Offense | 252.73 |
| Rushing Offense | 167.5 |
| Time of Possession | 30:26 |
| Penalty Yards | 57.64 |
Carter Bradley is 203-of-302 (67.22%) for 2,477 yards with 17 touchdowns to 7 interceptions for the year.
Caullin Lacy leads the team with 1,222 yards on 80 catches with 6 touchdowns. Jamaal Pritchett has 675 yards on 45 catches with 6 touchdowns as well. DJ Thomas-Jones has 165 yards on 17 catches.
La’Damian Webb became the first Jaguar to rush for over 1,000 yards in two seasons in program history. He has 1,007 yards on 186 carries with 16 touchdowns. Kentrel Bullock has 380 yards on 77 carries with three touchdowns. Marco Lee Jr has 216 yards on 49 carries with 2 touchdowns.
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 65-of-150 (42.67%) |
| 4th Downs | 15-of-24 (62.5%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 34-of-38 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 28-of-38 |
| Penalties – Yards | 74-634 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 13-8 |
Defense
| Stat | Average Allowed per Game |
| Points | 19.18 |
| Total Offense | 312.5 |
| Passing Offense | 195.27 |
| Rushing Offense | 117.3 |
| Time of Possession | 29:34 |
| Penalty Yards | 46.18 |
Quentin Wilfawn continues to lead the team with 75 total stops, 44 solo stops, 13.5 TFLs, and 5.5 sacks. Trey Kiser is next with 63 total stops, 28 solo stops, and 8.5 TFLs with 2.5 sacks.
Jamie Sheriff and Brock Higdon are tied for 2nd on the team with 3 sacks each.
Khalil Jacobs is third on the team with 6.5 TFLs. Jamie Sheriff has 6 TFLs.
Jaden Voisin leads the team with 4 interceptions. Marquise Robinson has two interceptions. Yam Banks, Maurice Strong Jr, Jalen Jordan, and Wesley Miller each have one interception each.
| Stat | Cumulative for Season |
| 3rd Downs | 48-of-147 (32.65%) |
| 4th Downs | 7-of-17 (41.18%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 19-of-26 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 11-of-26 |
| Penalties – Yards | 62-508 |
| Fumbles – Lost | 13-7 |
Special Teams
Diego Guajardo is 12-of-16 (75%) placekicking for the Jags. He made a season-long 47-yard kick last week against Marshall. Two of his misses have been in the 40–49-yard distance and the other two have been both of his 50+ yard attempts.
Jack Martin is averaging 39.71 yards per punt. That average is skewed by a punt he had to quickly get off after a bad snap that was very nearly blocked. Of his punts his long on the season is 54 yards, 18 have been fair caught, 11 downed inside the 20, three have gone 50+ yards, one being a touchback.
Injuries
DJ Thomas-Jones left the game on the first drive of the second half after the officials indicated he needed to be checked out. After he came off the field, he entered into the concussion protocol and did not return. Concussions are impossible to forecast a timeline to return, each one is different.
Jacob Hopper also left the Marshall game with an injury. Since Lincoln Sefcik will miss remainder of the season the once deep tight end position could be pretty thin if Thomas-Jones or Hopper are unable to play on Saturday. However both have reportedly been practicing this week.
Jordan Davis was helped to the sideline and was eventually carted to the locker room before halftime. It’s unknown the extent of his injury or if he may be available this week. I would not expect him to be able to go as a hunch. Josh McCulloch, who Davis replaced, may be ready to return to action after suffering a knee injury in practice leading up to the Oklahoma State game.
Dontae Lucas also missed some game time last week but is likely to play against Texas State.
Keys to the Game
Jaguar Defensive Front vs Texas State’s Offensive Line
Texas State has a potent offense. They roll up a lot of yards both through the air and on the ground. But it all starts at the line of scrimmage. The Bobcats like to run the ball in order to open up the passing game. The Jags defensive front needs to stop the run first then they need to attack and pressure Finley to make him uncomfortable. He’s not really known for running the ball all that much. He is just 81 yards short of passing for 3,000 yards on the season and has 21 touchdowns. Getting pressure on him will be key.
But they cannot simply sell-out to pressure Finley either because the Bobcats average close to 200 yards rushing per game themselves. The Jags have been caught blitzing and the opposing offense found some success running into the blitz.
Honestly it will take an entire defense effort with good coverage in the secondary, attacking defensive front to pressure the quarterback, and containment of the running backs.
Turnovers
Similar to Marshall, Texas State tends to turnover the ball quite a bit. The Jags need to challenge the Bobcats and force some turnovers. The Red Wolves were able to score on a pair of pick-sixes in the second half when they forced the Bobcats to throw the ball a lot due to game script.
But the Bobcats suffer more from ball security than interceptions. They have fumbled 20 times on the season and lost 13 of them to their opponents.
Offensive Efficiency
Though the Jags have won the last two weeks, they have done so more though defense than offense. They have struggled converting third downs and taking advantage of short fields or takeaways.
The offense had great field position after two takeaways from Marshall and were only able to turn them into a pair of field goals. They were also unable to punch the ball in from the 1-yard line on multiple tries too. The final try was a leap by La’Damian Webb where he was marked inches short of the goal line.
With Texas State’s productive offense, the Jags defense will have their work cut out for them. The offense needs to be able to convert more on third down to extend drives and keep the ball away from the Bobcat offense.
While the Jag offense is clearly better when Bradley is at quarterback, the defenses have turned up their pressure to try to get to him. He’s made good decisions with the ball and has shown that he can move to protect himself but he hasn’t tucked the ball and ran with it much since the injury against Louisiana that caused him to sit out against Troy.
Prediction
South Alabama opened as a 5.5-point favorite against the Bobcats.
The Jags have never won in San Marcos. Some of the losses have been heartbreaking too. Texas State has already improved their win totals by two games over their records the last two seasons. They enter this game after a disastrous second half against Arkansas State where they had 28 points scored off of four turnovers and also allowed seven rushing touchdowns. Three of those rushing touchdowns were runs of 40+ yards.
The Jags have been an inconsistent team this season that goes in cycles, generally in twos.
After a season-opening loss at Tulane, they started the two-game pattern. Wins over Southeastern Louisiana and Oklahoma State. Losses to Central Michigan and James Madison. Blowout wins over ULM and Southern Miss. Losses to Lafayette and Troy. Defensive wins over Arkansas State and Marshall.
Now what.
Complete the cycle with a loss? Or break the cycle with a win?
As I joke every game day, it depends on which team gets off the bus on gameday. If the right team shows up, they can definitely win.
I’m going to roll with the Jags to win and cover this week. I think they are motivated and ready to make some more program history. The first win in San Marcos and securing back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in the FBS.
Go Jags!