Preview: South Alabama Looks To Start Late-Season Run Against Arkansas State
Kickoff: Saturday, November 11, 4:00pm
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
Thunderjags on X (formerly known as Twitter): @USAThunderjags
#5 Jersey: Quentin Wilfawn
South Alabama finds itself in the midst of another two-game skid this season. The Jags (4-5, 2-3 SBC) return home after another stinging loss to Troy in their bitter rivalry game, the “Battle for the Belt”, for the sixth consecutive time.
The Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-4, 3-2 SBC) come into Mobile riding a two-game winning streak (ULM 34-24 and Louisiana-Lafayette 37-17).
In the 11 previous match-ups between the two teams, the Jags have a 5-6 record against Arkansas State. The Jags hold a 3-2 edge when playing the Red Wolves in Mobile and have also won the previous four meetings between the two, including a 31-3 win last season in Jonesboro.
Red Wolves head coach Butch Jones is in his third season at the helm in Jonesboro and has them on the verge of being bowl-eligible for the first time since 2019. Since taking over the Red Wolves they have improved their record every season. They have gone from 2-10, to 3-9, and now are 5-4 with three games to go.
The Jags hope to finish the season strong, needing at least two wins in order to gain bowl eligibility.
Interestingly the Jags and Red Wolves, like their win-loss record, have the same opponents just in a different order to finish out the season. USA will host Marshall then travel to Texas State while ASU hosts Texas State and travels to Marshall over the next two weeks.
But before that, we have the game on Saturday. If the Jags win, they are one game closer to bowl eligibility. If the Red Wolves win, they are bowl eligible.
Arkansas State (5-4, 3-2 SBC)
The Red Wolves have a -2 turnover margin. They have turned the ball over to opponents only nine times, six interceptions and three fumbles. Their defense has taken the ball away seven times, four by interception and three recovered fumbles.
Offense
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 24.56 |
| Total Offense | 379.1 |
| Passing Offense | 226.22 |
| Rushing Offense | 152.9 |
| Time of Possession | 27:19 |
| Penalty Yards | 61.44 |
| Season Stat | |
| 3rd Downs | 44-of-120 (36.67%) |
| 4th Downs | 4-of-12 (33.3%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 25-of-30 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 16-of-15 |
| Penalties-Yards | 55-553 |
| Fumbles-Lost | 4-3 |
Jaylen Raynor is 102-of-172 (59.3%) for 1,648 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 7 games played. Jaxon Dailey is 17-of-33 (51.5%) for 137 yards in 4 games played. J.T. Shrout is 24-of-51 (47.1%) for 227 yards and two interceptions in two games played.
Courtney Jackson leads the Red Wolves with 480 yards on 25 catches with six touchdowns. Corey Rucker has 443 yards on 22 catches. Jeff Foreman has 367 yards on 17 catches with three touchdowns.
Ja’Quez Cross leads the team rushing with 470 yards on 83 carries with three touchdowns. Zak Wallace is next with 435 yards on 103 carries with four touchdowns. Jaylen Raynor is next on the team with 324 yards on 84 carries with five touchdowns in only seven games played.
Defense
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 31.89 |
| Total Offense | 441.1 |
| Passing Offense | 268.33 |
| Rushing Offense | 172.8 |
| Time of Possession | 32:41 |
| Penalty Yards | 59.11 |
| Season Stat | |
| 3rd Downs | 52-of-130 (40.0%) |
| 4th Downs | 12-of-16 (75.0%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 34-of-38 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 22-of-34 |
| Penalties-Yards | 59-532 |
| Fumbles-Lost | 5-3 |
Javante Mackey leads the Red Wolves with 69 total stops, 44 solo, with 5 TFLs and two sacks. Charles Willekes has 62 total stops, 22 solo, with 5 TFLs and a sack.
Melique Straker adds 59 total stops, 29 solo, with two TFLs and an interception.
Keyron Crawford leads the team with 9.5 TFL’s and also 4.5 sacks. Thurman Geathers has 9 TFL’s and 3 sacks with 10 quarterback hurries under his belt.
Eddie Smith leads the team with two interceptions.
Special Teams
Dominic Zvada is 13-of-17 (76.47%) with a season long of 53 yards.
William Przystup is averaging 44.19 yards per punt with a long of 59 yards. He has 13 downed inside the 20, 13 kicks of 50+ yards, 8 fair catches and 5 touchbacks.
South Alabama (4-5, 2-3 SBC)
The Jags also have a -2 turnover ratio coming into the game against the Red Wolves. They have turned the ball over a total of 15 times, nine interceptions and six fumbles lost. The defense has taken the ball away from opponents 13 times, six interceptions and seven fumbles.
Offense
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 30.89 |
| Total Offense | 431.8 |
| Passing Offense | 271.0 |
| Rushing Offense | 160.8 |
| Time of Possession | 29:30 |
| Penalty Yards | 58.44 |
| Season Stat | |
| 3rd Downs | 52-of-118 (44.1%) (T-29th) |
| 4th Downs | 10-of-17 (58.8%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 30-of-32 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 24-of-30 |
| Penalties-Yards | 61-526 |
| Fumbles-Lost | 10-6 |
Carter Bradley is 167-of-254 (65.75%) on the season with 2,156 yards, 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions through eight games (did not play against Troy). Gio Lopez is 27-of-42 (64.29%) for 283 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in four appearances, including the start last week against Troy.
Caullin Lacy became the first receiver in FBS football to eclipse the 1,000 yard receiving mark last week. He has 64 catches for 1,046 yards (2nd) with six touchdowns (T-33rd). Jamaal Pritchett has 41 catches for 600 yards and three touchdowns. Lincoln Sefcik has 17 catches for 165 yards and a touchdown. DJ Thomas-Jones has 14 catches for 150 yards. Kentrel Bullock has 14 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown.
La’Damian Webb set a new single-season rushing touchdown record against Troy with his 14th score of the season and ranks 2nd nationally. He has 727 yards (40th) on 134 carries for the season. Bullock has 380 yards on 76 carries with three touchdowns. Marco Lee Jr has 186 yards on 40 carries with two touchdowns.
Defense
| Stat | Average per game |
| Points | 21.89 (40th) |
| Total Offense | 326.1 (26th) |
| Passing Offense | 200.33 (32nd) |
| Rushing Offense | 125.8 (37th) |
| Time of Possession | 30:29 |
| Penalty Yards | 50.22 |
| Season Stat | |
| 3rd Downs | 43-of-120 (35.83%) (43rd) |
| 4th Downs | 6-of-12 (50%) |
| Red Zone Scoring Attempts | 18-of-24 |
| Red Zone Touchdowns | 11-of-18 |
| Penalties-Yards | 52-452 |
| Fumbles-Lost | 10-7 |
Quentin Wilfawn leads the defense with 61 total stops, 33 solo with a team leading 10.5 tackles for loss and a tie for team leading three sacks. James Miller has 57 total stops, 21 solo, with 2.5 TFLs. Trey Kiser has 55 total stops, 23 solo, with 8 TFLs and 2.5 sacks. Jaden Voisin adds 51 total stops, 20 solo, with ½ TFL, six pass breakups and a team-leading 2 interceptions.
Brock Higdon shares the sack lead with Wilfawn at 3 each.
Maurice Strong Jr., Yam Banks, Wesley Miller, Marquise Robinson each have an interception.
Special Teams
Diego Guajardo is 10-of-14 on the season (71.4%), his long on the season is 46 yards and has missed both attempts from 50+ yards.
Jack Martin is averaging 39.86 yards per punt with a long of 53 yards. He has 15 fair catches, 10 downed inside the 20, and two kick of 50+ yards.
Injuries
The status of Carter Bradley will not be known until game time on Saturday. The coaches said that he made a lot of progress last week but they held him out because there were concerns about his mobility and his ability to protect himself in the game.
Meanwhile the coaches also said that Lopez and Desmond Trotter will split reps with the first and second-string offenses this week while Bradley continues to rehab and try to work out his injured left knee.
Is this some gamesmanship to make the Red Wolves prepare for up to three quarterbacks? Absolutely! Will it work? We’ll see on Saturday.
Gio Lopez has hit the threshold for the number of games he can play without burning his redshirt. So it’s safe to say that, if he goes into the game, it is because the coaching staff believes that he gives the team the best shot at winning.
Braylon McReynolds is getting closer to returning to action. He is likely not going to play this week, but he could see action before the end of the regular season. He has been working out with the team in non-contact gear.
Keys to the Game
Consistency
This has been an issue for this team all season, overall consistency. The Jags get a brush with it but it only seems to last about two games. They have the high-performing games like against Southeastern Louisiana and Oklahoma State, then ULM and Southern Miss. But then they have the low games like against Central Michigan and James Madison, then Louisiana-Lafayette and Troy.
But even in the losses, they had sparks where they played well but just couldn’t maintain it or found it too late.
That’s something that South Alabama has struggled with since transitioning into FBS. Though they have improved some over the last couple of seasons but clearly aren’t where they want to be. Hopefully after the success they tasted last season and how this season has gone so far, it will help them in working towards that collective goal: Consistency.
Offensive Line
Speaking of inconsistency, the offensive line has had its share of inconsistent play.
Over the last two games though, the ULL and Troy have both been able to dominate the line of scrimmage and pressure the quarterback and disrupt the Jags running game. It didn’t help that the Jags started true freshman Gio Lopez against the Trojans last week. While Lopez did show a lot of poise and potential, the Trojans were able to get pressure on him and didn’t allow him to try to stretch the field with some throws down the field.
However, last season the Jags offensive line led the way for La’Damian Webb to run for 163 yards and three touchdowns against the Red Wolves. Against a defense that allows an average 172.8 rushing yards per game, there’s an opportunity for USA to repeat that performance and earn their fifth win of the season and their fifth consecutive win in the series.
Stadium Presence
In the home game losses, the stadium feel has just been dead. Walking into the stadium for the Louisiana-Lafayette game it just felt like extremely low energy and I immediately had red flags go up. That was the next game after an extremely high-energy crowd for the Tuesday night Southern Miss game.
The two games could not have been any more polar opposites.
The closer I got to the stadium on that Tuesday evening, the air felt like it could just start crackling at any moment with the sheer energy that was present. During pre-game festivities, team entrances, and throughout the game the crowd was feeding and the team was eating.
While the program is still quite new, it’s time that the students and spectators made their presence felt more on gameday. It’s time to turn Hancock Whitney Stadium, aka ‘The Cock’, into the Jungle.
“Do you know where you are? You’re in the Jungle baby. You’re gonna die….watch it bring you to your…knees”
Prediction
I’ve written this out too many times this season already, but it really depends on which Jaguar team gets off that bus at the stadium on Saturday. But if you look above at my keys to the game, I believe it will also be determined by the stadium atmosphere.
Under head coach Kane Wommack, the Jags have not had a .500 or sub-.500 record at home. They currently are 2-2 with two home games remaining on their schedule.
Arkansas State has some momentum on their side with a stunning win over the Ragin’ Cajuns (who put a decent whipping on the Jags just two weeks ago. The Red Wolves seem to have found their quarterback of the future in freshman Jaylen Raynor. Raynor, a dual threat quarterback, has risen up the team rushing ranks. He’s sitting at third on the team in rushing yards and leads the pack with 5 rushing touchdowns. Also with a 3.25-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio, he is making pretty good decisions throwing the ball.
Dual-threat quarterbacks have plagued the Jags this season. But can the defense put enough pressure on him to force bad decisions while keeping contain?
I feel the Jags are coming into this game with a mission and with focus.
As an 11.5 point favorite, I feel that’s a bit high considering. But what do I know. Sometimes I feel that I might as well employ a magic 8-ball this year, but I’ll keep at it. I feel good about the Jags winning, but I don’t think they cover. Go ahead, prove me wrong. (Just don’t do it by losing, okay)
Go Jags!