Preview: Battle for the Belt 2023
Kickoff: Thursday, November 2, 6:30pm
Venue: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL
TV/Streaming: ESPN2
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
Thunderjags on X (formerly known as Twitter): @USAThunderjags
#5 Jersey: Jamaal Pritchett
The 2023 edition of The Battle for the Belt is here.
South Alabama (4-4, 2-2 SBC) has come out on the wrong side of the scoreboard the last five meetings against troy (6-2, 3-1 SBC). Those five losses are the difference in the all-time record between the two teams, troy leads the series 8-3. The last time the Jags won, it was Joey Jones’ last season at the helm of the program and current head coach Kane Wommack was the defensive coordinator. That game was a 19-8 defensive struggle. Last year was another defensive struggle that finished with a low scoring 10-6 final.
In a short week after a 33-20 loss to Louisiana-Lafayette, the South Alabama players and coaches have to clear their minds, correct their issues, and treat their injuries for a 6:30 pm kickoff on Thursday night.
Some may think that’s a hard thing to do in such short time. Physically, that is true. Mentally, it may be easier that you think. Especially when you’re a talented team and you lose, you’re ready to get back on the field and prove yourself all over again.
They will have their opportunity Thursday night on national television.
South Alabama (4-4, 2-2 SBC)
As a team, the Jags have a -2 turnover margin. They have given the ball away 14 times in total, 8 passes intercepted and out of eight fumbles, they’ve lost 6 to their opponents.
Meanwhile the defense has forced nine fumbles, recovering 6 of them, and intercepted 6 passes.
South Alabama is averaging 7.125 penalties and 62.63 penalty yards per game. Their opponents are averaging 5.875 penalties and 50.88 penalty yards per game.
Offense
The Jaguars are averaging 33.5 points (31st nationally), 454.3 total offensive yards (20th nationally), 285.5 passing yards (25th), 168.8 rushing yards (50th), and 30:01 time of possession per game through eight games this season.
They are converting 52-of-108 on 3rd down and 9-of-16 on 4th down attempts.
The perfect run of red scoring came to an end against the Ragin’ Cajuns. After failing to score on two attempts, the Jags now have scored on 28 of their 30 trips into the red zone, with 23 of them being touchdowns. The Jags failed to score on their first red zone trip against the Cajuns when head coach Kane Wommack opted to keep the offense on the field for a 4th and 1 at the Cajuns 6-yard line. The other was an interception in the end zone in the fourth quarter.
Carter Bradley is 167-of-254 (65.75%) passing with 2,156 yards, 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Gio Lopez is the only other Jags with passing stats, he is 10-of-15 (66.67%) for 128 yards, a touchdown and an interception in three appearances.
Caullin Lacy leads the team with 55 catches for 957 yards and 6 touchdowns. He ranks 2nd in the nation in receiving yards, trailing LSU’s Malik Nabers by only 24 yards on the season.
Jamaal Pritchett had a career game against the Cajuns. His season total is 35 catches and 541 yards with three touchdowns. Lincoln Sefcik has 17 catches for 165 yards and a touchdown. DJ Thomas-Jones has 14 catches for 150 yards. Kentrell Bullock has 13 catches for 106 yards and a touchdown. La’Damian Webb has 17 catches for 106 yards to round out the pass catchers with 100+ yards on the season.
Webb leads the team rushing with 674 yards on 119 carries and 13 touchdowns (tied for the most in a season and tied for first in the nation) with a 5.7 yards per carry average. Bullock has 375 yards on 74 carries and three touchdowns with a 5.1 yards per carry average. Marco Lee Jr has 186 yards on 39 carries with two touchdowns and a 4.8 yards per carry average.
Defense
The defense is allowing an average of 21.13 points (T38th nationally), 316.9 total yards of offense (22nd nationally), 191.5 passing yards (22nd nationally), 125.4 rushing yards (40th nationally), and 29:58 time of possession per game this season.
Opponents are converting 38-of-106 (35.85%) on 3rd down and 3-of-8 (37.5%) on 4th down attempts.
The defense has had opponents in the red zone 22 times and they have scored on 17 of those trips with 10 of them being touchdowns.
James Miller has moved back into the top spot with 51 total stops, 18 solo. Quentin Wilfawn, with his career game against the Cajuns, has moved into second place with 50 total stops, 27 solo, and he leads the team with 8.5 Tackles for Loss. Trey Kiser is now third on the team with 46 total stops, 20 solo, with six TFLs (second on the team).
Brock Higdon continues to lead the team with 3 sacks. Wilfawn, Khalil Jacobs, Jamie Sheriff, and Maurice Strong Jr are all tied for second with two sacks each.
Jaden Voisin continues to lead the team with two interceptions. Strong Jr, Yam Banks, Wesley Miller, and Marquise Robinson each have an interception.
Special Teams
Diego Guajardo is 9-of-12 (75%) on the season in field goals and is 30-of-32 on extra point attempts.
Jack Martin, after not seeing any action since September, is now averaging 39.41 yards per punt for his 22 attempts this season. His average took a plunge after the shanked punt from a bad snap and narrowly avoiding a block against the Cajuns.
troy (6-2, 3-1 SBC)
As a team, the Trojans have a turnover margin of +2 on the season. They have fumbled 15 time, losing possession on 9 of them, with 4 passes being intercepted. Defensively they have forced 13 fumbles and recovered 8 of them while also intercepting 7 passes.
Offense
The trojans are averaging 27.13 points (69th), 441.8 total yards of offense (31st), 275.88 passing yards (33rd), and 165.9 rushing yards (55th), and 32:14 time of possession per game.
They are converting 49-of-118 (41.53%) of their 3rd down attempts and 6-of-15 (40%) of their 4th down attempts on the season.
The Trojans are also doing well in the red zone. Out of their 30 trips, they have scored on 29 of them, however only 15 of them have resulted in touchdowns.
Gunnar Watson is 149-of-247 (60.32%) for 2,158 yards, 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on the season. Goose Crowder is 5-of-6 for 49 yards.
Jabre Barber leads the Trojans with 615 yards on 39 catches with three touchdowns. Chris Lewis has 415 yards on 18 catches with four touchdowns. Deshon Staudemire has 381 yards on 27 catches with a touchdown. Devonte Ross has 243 yards on 22 catches with two touchdowns. Finally, Kimani Vidal has 140 yards on 10 carries with a touchdown to round out the list of 100+ yard receivers.
Vidal leads the team with 994 rushing yards on 172 attempts with six touchdowns while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Kamien Taylor has 247 yards on 45 carries with a touchdown and a 5.5 yard per carry average.
Defense
troy leans on their defense for their winning ways. They allow an average of 16.88 points (17th nationally), 301 total yards of offense (14th), 193.88 passing yards (28th), 107.1 rushing yards (20th), and 27:32 time of possession per game.
Opponents are converting 35-of-110 (31.82%) of their 3rd down attempts and 6-of-19 (31.58%) of their 4th down attempts.
Opponents have had the ball in the red zone 22 times and scored on 17 of those trips, with 10 of them being a touchdown.
Jayden McDonal leads the team with 52 total stops, 32 solo, with 7 tackles for loss. Dell Pettus is next in line with 43 stops, 26 solo, with a TFL. Caleb Ransaw has 34 total stops, 21 solo.
Javon Solomon leads the Trojans with 6 sacks. Richard Jibunor has 4.5 sacks for second place on the team.
Solomon and McDonald are tied for the lead with 7 TFLs. Jibunor has six. Ransaw has 4 TFLs.
Special Teams
Scott Taylor Renfroe is 16-of-19 (84.21%) on field goal attempts. His only misses have come from 40+ yards and his longest make of the season is 43 yards.
Robert Cole is averaging 39.71 yards per punt over 28 attempts. He’s had 9 downed inside the 20, 8 fair catches, 4 kicks of 50+ yards, and two touchbacks.
Injuries
The most obvious injury from the game against the Cajuns was Carter Bradley. Bradley went down on the last offensive play of the game, a two-point conversion try, when he was tackled from behind just after he threw the ball. He was in obvious pain on the ground.
In the Jags Monday press conference, one of the first questions was about Bradley’s availability on Thursday. Coaches said that he has had a lingering issue with his left knee for a few weeks now. The first question to Bradley during the player portion of the press conference was about him playing against Troy. He had a sly grin on his face when he answered, “You’ll find out on Thursday.”
Bradley explained “I kind of tweaked it a little bit during the week of practice, I just landed on it weird, nothing crazy.”
Offensive coordinator Major Applewhite said that Bradley’s rehab efforts are going well. “He moved around pretty good out at practice [Monday],” Applewhite said. “…We’re going to rep all of them. Dez has played in that game before and we feel comfortable with him running the offense and Gio has gotten some reps throughout the year. He’s still young in his development but he’s come a long way and he’s doing great things as well.”
Lopez, a true freshman, has appeared in three games so far this season and is the only other player with passing statistics this season other than Bradley. However Trotter was the starter in the 2020 season and has filled in as starter in games over the last two seasons with the program. He has in-game experience and will likely be the starter if Bradley is unable to go or if Bradley has to come out early.
Keys to the Game
Offensive Line
The Jags got whipped in the trenches by Louisiana-Lafayette. They allowed Carter Bradley to be sacked five times, he fumbled on three of those sacks. The rushing attack wasn’t able to get established consistently either. The Cajuns were able to set the line of scrimmage in the Jaguar backfield.
After a failed two-point conversion, we are now waiting to hear if Bradley will even be able to play against troy. If not, will Desmond Trotter get the start or could they turn to Gio Lopez, the true freshman, who’s already shown he can also bring more of a running threat to the position.
But no matter who is back taking the snaps, they need to the offensive line to get back to the way they’ve played against Oklahoma State, ULM and Southern Miss (and quickly).
No matter who is taking snaps, troy will be looking to pressure them to see how they react. If it’s Bradley, how well can he move. If it’s Trotter, how can they pressure him into mistakes. But if it’s Lopez, how can they capitalize on this inexperience.
No matter how you slice it, the offensive line has a big test ahead of them on Thursday.
Establishing the Run
South Alabama’s offense is much more effective when they have established the run well on opponents.
It’s also very beneficial with the new clock rules this season. The new rule that is making the most impact in games is having the clock run after first downs, except for the last two minutes of each half. If you can keep the ball on the ground and churn out first downs, teams can really limit their opponents’ opportunities to possess the ball and score.
I’ll just reiterate it, the Jaguar offense simply runs much more efficiently and effectively if they can run the ball consistently.
Turnovers and Penalties
Five turnovers doomed the Jags against Louisiana-Lafayette. Five turnovers will doom you against any opponent though.
It was an uncharacteristically bad game for the Jags, they rarely turn the ball over that much under coach Wommack and they rarely are on the negative side of the turnover margin.
Coach Applewhite mentioned in the press conference that, whenever the quarterback is on the move, they have to have both hands on the ball. Bradley also mentioned that he needs to do better at picking up the backside pressure, like what the Cajuns did against him.
In order to win the game, the Jags need to be in the positive side of the turnover margin. The defense has not generated a lot of takeaways so far this season and they need to change that, starting this week.
But also, they cannot commit penalties and give their opponent free first downs to extend drives. Whenever you play, you have to play clean. You have to assume when you are playing on the road, the officials will be calling in favor of the home team.
You can almost guarantee that emotions will be running high in the game. troy will try to bait Jaguars into committing penalties. South Alabama players will have to keep cool heads and focus on the game from snap to whistle and anything outside of that has to be shrugged off.
Prediction
If this game had been swapped with the ULL game on the schedule, we would be saying that both teams were coming into the game playing their best football.
troy may be playing some of their best football coming into the game. But after the game on Saturday, where the Jags committed five turnovers, they don’t seem to be playing their best football coming into this game.
But that doesn’t mean the Jags can’t find their mojo again.
After dropping back-to-back games against Central Michigan and James Madison, the Jags rolled to back-to-back wins while scoring 55-points per game. Let’s hope they Jags don’t need two games to get that mojo back.
troy is going to go after Bradley if he plays. They know he has a questionable knee and the offensive line has had their issues this season.
It all depends which team gets off the bus at Veteran’s Memorial Stadium on Thursday.
The Jags are a 6.5-point underdog to troy. Let’s bring that Belt back to Mobile.
Go Jags!