Preview: South Alabama Opens Conference Play At James Madison
Kickoff: Saturday, September 30, 11am
Venue: Bridgeforth Stadium, Harrisonburg, VA
TV/Streaming: ESPNU
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
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The South Alabama Jaguars coaches and players are still seeking that key ingredient that breeds continued success: consistency. They will need to play their type of football consistently from the opening kickoff until the final buzzer if they want to get to 1-0 in conference play this week.
When the Jags are on, they are on, but when they’re not they’re not….but still aren’t too bad.
Two weeks ago the Jags played arguably one, if not the, best games in program history. The 33-7 win over Oklahoma State was never in doubt. Even though many Jaguar fans were bracing for the Cowboys to at least make a run in the second half. It never really came though.
The Jaguar offense hit a little lull in the third quarter, but responded urgently when the Cowboys scored their only points of the game. Most of the first quarter against Central Michigan it looked like the Jags were just picking up where they left off in Stillwater.
However it came to a screeching halt near the end of the first quarter.
When Jase Bauer came in at quarterback the defense was put on their heels and the offense went cold. It was a one-two punch that stunned the Jags. The Chippewa’s scored 20 unanswered before the Jags managed to stop the Chippewa scoring run. They mustered a field goal and cut the lead to three points very late in the third quarter.
It looked like the Jaguar defense had gotten a stop on the first play of the fourth quarter. However, Bauer avoided a sack, managed to kept his balance, and delivered a pass that went for a 70-yard touchdown. Then the Jaguar offense finally responded. They came alive, and got the crowd back into the game as well, by scoring a pair of touchdowns to regain the lead with just 2:42 left in the game. The defense was playing with momentum again.
The defense looked to have the Chippewa’s stopped for a 4th and 7 at the Jaguar 35 when a little yellow flag was tossed. A momentary, and uncharacteristic, mistake by Quentin Wilfawn drew an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. With it came a fresh set of downs at the Jaguar 20-yard line. A couple of plays later Bauer punched it in and the Chippewa’s were able to hold on for the final 13 seconds and defeat the Jags 34-30.
It’s a new week and a new season is being ushered in with it. The Jags are 0-0 this week and looking to go 1-0 on Saturday.
James Madison (4-0, 1-0 SBC)
The Dukes joined the Sun Belt last season and by looking at their poise and the results on the field, you wouldn’t have known that 2022 was their first season in the FBS ranks. They have long been a powerhouse program in FCS and now join the ranks of fellow Sun Belt members that have found success early in their transition to FBS. Programs like Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, and Coastal Carolina.
James Madison went 8-3 last season, 6-2 in conference play. They hit a mid-season slump with losses at Georgia Southern, vs Marshall, and at Louisville. However they rebounded to end the season with three wins, including a 47-7 spanking of then #23 ranked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers.
JMU has picked up right where they left off so far in 2023.
They added to the conference’s list of wins over Power 5 programs with a 36-35 decision over Virginia. They knocked off the defending conference champion Troy 16-14 in Troy, AL. Last week they held off a pesky Utah State team on the road for a 45-38 win.
South Alabama will travel to Virginia for their first-ever game between the two programs on Saturday.
Offense
The Dukes are averaging 33.75 points, 408.3 total yards, 238.5 rushing yards, and 169.8 rushing yards per game on the season. They are converting 17-of-54 (31.5%) on 3rd down and 2-of-5 (40%) on 4th down on the season.
Out of 21 trips to the red zone, they have scored on 17 of those trips, with 11 of them being touchdowns.
They have a slight edge in time of possession by averaging 30:30 while their opponents are averaging 29:30 per game.
They’ve turned the ball over six times on the season, three fumbles lost out of five total fumbles, and three interceptions. The defense has forced six fumbles, recovering one, but they have gotten five interceptions to make them even on the year in turnover margin.
Jordan McCloud is 67-of-101 (66.3%) on the season for 919 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions.
Reggie Brown leads an experienced group of receivers with 15 catches for 354 yards and three touchdowns. Elijah Sarratt is right behind him with 14 catches for 188 yards and a touchdown. Kaelon Black is the only other receiver with over 100 yards receiving though. He has 12 catches for 103 yards and a touchdown. Phoenix Sproles is the only other receiver with double-digit receptions at 11 for 62 yards and two touchdowns.
Kaelon Black leads the team rushing with 304 yards on 54 attempts. Ty Son Lawton has 191 yards on 32 carries with three touchdowns. Latrele Palmer has 102 yards on 24 carries with a touchdown. McCloud has run for a pair of touchdowns himself.
The offensive line returned intact from last season. They were averaging about 30 starts each across the line. However, College Football Network Preseason Sun Belt Offensive Lineman of the Year, redshirt senior right tackle Nick Kidwell suffered a season-ending injury on the first play against Utah State. Junior Tyler Stephens, who has previously started at left guard this season, will move over to right tackle to fill in in his absence.
The Dukes are capable of marching down the field quickly. They don’t really grind out a lot of 3rd downs and do a good job of limiting negative plays or getting off-schedule on offense.
Defense
The JMU defense is allowing an average of 22.5 points, 356 total yards, 314.5 passing yards, and a mere 41.5 rushing yards per game. Part of the rushing defense is that they have 18 sacks for a loss of 133 yards on the season. They are averaging 4.5 sacks per game through the first four games.
Opponents are converting 17-of-62 (27.4%) of their 3rd down attempts and 5-of-11 (45.5%) of their 4th down attempts. Teams have been in the red zone only 10 times on the season, they’ve scored 8 times with 7 of them being touchdowns.
They lead the FBS in rushing defense and yards per rush allowed (1.39 per carry). They are tied for the lead nationally with an average of 10.2 TFL’s per game, and are tied for second nationally with 4.5 sacks per game.
Aiden Fisher leads the team with 28 total stops, 11 solo, with three pass breakups, three quarterback hurries and an interception from his linebacker position. Jalen Green has 22 total stops, 8 solo, with 7.5 tackles for loss, four sacks, a forced fumble and a pass breakup on the defensive line.
Kikail Kamara has 19 total stops, 11 solo, and a team leading 8.5 tackles for loss on the season with three sacks and a pair of forced fumbles from the defensive lineman.
Green is tied with Jamree Kromah for the team lead in sacks (4). Kromah has 19 total tackles, 9 solo, with 6.5 TFLs two quarterback hurries, and a fumble recovery.
The Dukes defensive front seven generate lots of pressure and havoc. As previously mentioned they have 18 sacks on the season, but they also have a total of 41 tackles for loss. They rotate a lot of players in their front seven so they do a good job of keeping players fresh and getting experience down the depth chart. They play very complimentary to each other too.
But they have also allowed some explosive plays downfield.
Special Teams
Camden Wise is a perfect 6-of-6 on the season placekicking, however his longest kick has been from 38 yards.
Ryan Hanson is averaging 40.4 yards per punt, his longest being 59 yards his only kick of 50+ yards, with 10 fair catches, 7 downed inside the 20, and one touchback.
South Alabama (2-2, 0-0 SBC)
Consistency, that’s the objective of the coaches this week. It’s also been the objective for the entire season through four games.
If the Jags can play with more consistency, then last Saturday’s game would have turned out completely different. The Tulane game would have been a very different game too. I’m not going to say that the Jags would have definitely defeated the Green Wave, but allowing three touchdown passes of 47, 47 and 48 yards definitely changes the dynamic of the game.
Offense
The Jags are averaging 28.8 points, 393.6 total yards, 214.3 passing yards, and 179.3 rushing yards per game. They are converting 27-of-52 (51.9%) of their 3rd down attempts and 3-of-5 (60%) of their 4th down attempts on the season.
They’ve made the most of their red zone trips this season. They’ve scored on all 12 trips with 9 of them being touchdowns.
Last week the Jags didn’t commit any turnovers on offense, but the defense didn’t get any take-away’s either so the Jags continue to be +1 in the turnover margin. They’ve lost three of the four fumbles they’ve committed and have thrown three interceptions. The Jag defense has forced and recovered five fumbles and has gathered a pair of interceptions.
The offense is averaging 29:36 on time of possession on the season.
Carter Bradley is 69-of-99 (69.7%) for 854 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions on the season.
Caullin Lacy has emerged as the leading receiver with 26 catches for 435 yards and five touchdowns, all from 35 yards or more. He is the only receiver in the nation with five touchdown receptions of 35 yards or more.
Jamaal Pritchett has added 14 catches for 161 yards as the only other receiver with either double-digit catches or over 100 yards receiving.
Lincoln Sefcik has 7 catches for 46 yards. Kentrel Bullock has 7 catches for 40 yards.
La’Damian Webb leads the team with 340 yards on 52 carries with six touchdowns. He’s averaging 6.5 yards per attempt and has only lost 3 yards on the season. That loss came in the last game on a 4th down attempt when the offense rushed to the line and Central Michigan sold out to stop the run.
Kentrel Bullock has 255 yards on 49 carries with a touchdown. Marco Lee Jr has 21 carries for 106 yards and a touchdown. Both are averaging 5 yards or more per carry.
Jordan Davis filled in for Josh McCulloch again last week as Josh was still recovering from a knee injury sustained in practice prior to the Oklahoma State game.
Defense
The Jaguar defense is allowing an average of 23.8 points, 352.8 total yards, 247 passing yards and 105.8 rushing yards per game. Opponents are converting 22-of-50 (44%) of their 3rd down attempts and 2-of-2 (100%) of their 4th down attempts.
Out of 15 trips to the red zone, the Jags have allowed opponents to score 12 times and only 8 of them resulting in a touchdown.
James Miller is still on top of the defensive statistics with 26 total stops, 12 solo, with 1.5 tackles for loss a quarterback hurry and a fumble recovery. Jaden Voisin is next with 24 total stops, 11 solo, with a forced fumble and a pass breakup.
Trey Kiser has 21 total stops, 10 solo, also with 1.5 tackles for loss, a pass breakup, and a quarterback hurry.
Quentin Wilfawn has 19 total stops on the season, 14 solo, with a sack and a team leading 3 tackles for loss.
Brock Higdon leads the team with 2 sacks. Yam Banks and Marquise Robinson both have an interception.
After starting the season allowing big plays in the secondary, the Jags have been able to make adjustments. They are playing with more of that key word head coach Kane Wommack keeps talking about: consistency.
Special Teams
Diego Guajardo is 4-of-5 on field goal attempts for the season. His long is 42 and his only miss was in the season opener against Tulane from 52 yards out.
Jack Martin is averaging 41.9 yards per punt with a long of 53 yards. He has 7 fair catches, 5 downed inside the 20, and two kicks of 50+ yards.
Keys to the Game
Offensive Line
The JMU defense is going to bring pressure and cause havoc. Their sheer number of sacks and tackles for loss show it. When Bradley and the offense struggle, it has been because protection has broken down and Bradley is under pressure. JMU is going to generate some negative plays, but how the team responds will be a storyline of this game.
The offensive line has shown that they can play at a high level. Just look at the second half against Southeastern Louisiana, Oklahoma State, and the first quarter against Central Michigan.
If they play with consistency and up to their potential, which we’ve seen, the Jags can play with anyone.
They need to set the line of scrimmage, because the JMU defensive line will be determined to set the line of scrimmage in the Jaguar backfield. If they are able to give Bradley time, he has Lacy, Pritchett, Ivory, Sefcik and others that are talented pass-catchers that can make plays downfield. Which leads to…
Establish the Run
Utah State showed how a team can get a foothold establishing the run on them. Between Webb and Bullock, the Jags have two players with great vision that can find the hole and make positive yardage. They have turned plays that seemed to be destined for a loss into gains or even big plays. They just need the opportunity.
Between the two they have less than 20 yards of negative plays between them this season. If the line can give them a lane, they’ll find it.
The matchup between the Dukes proficiency is generating negative plays and Webb and Bullock’s ability to avoid losing yardage will make for some interesting viewing on Saturday.
Play Responsive Football
South Alabama has been very “responsive” after an opponent has scored. This means that, when the opponent scores, the offensive has not responded with a score of their own on the next possession.
Responsiveness really takes the air out of the stadium. When the opponent scores just to get the ball back and answer with your own score really seizes any momentum back away from the other team.
The Jags didn’t respond to several of the Chippewa’s scores in the game last Saturday. You could feel the small contingent of fans who traveled for the game as their presence became more and more prominent with each score.
When the Jags had closed within 3 points in the fourth quarter and the Chippewa’s scored to stretch it out to a 10-point lead, they seized the opportunity. USA responded with a 3 play 75-yard drive, with a 72-yard touchdown pass, that electrified the crowd.
The Jaguar fans got loud and really got into the game.
That’s what a response will do for you at home. On the road it will do similar to what Central Michigan did, it will quiet the crowd.
Injuries
Braylon McReynolds, Devin Voisin, and Keith Gallmon Jr are all out for the season with injuries. McReynolds has not been ruled out for potential post-season play.
Josh McCulloch has been improving since his non-season threatening knee injury. It’s unknown if he may be back for the game on Saturday.
The Jags came out of the game against Central Michigan pretty healthy, no major injuries.
Prediction
This is a big game for the Jaguars. You only have eight conference games and each one looms large, especially if you lose one.
The Jags only lost one conference game last season, their head-to-head matchup against Troy. Troy also only lost one conference game but held the tiebreaker due to the head-to-head victory. The Trojans were the preseason favorite to win the western division again, but they’ve already have a loss in conference play…to James Madison.
In that game, the Dukes got six sacks and held the Trojans to -12 yards rushing. Prior to Troy, they held Virginia to just 18 rushing yards. Last week Utah State was able to rush for 98 yards, the most the Dukes have allowed during their current seven game winning streak, dating back to 2022.
The Dukes opened at a 5 point favorite and the line has moved down to just 3.5 points.
What was once a thorn in the Jags side, they have turned around their fortunes when playing on the road. They are now 10-4 over the last 14 games away from Hancock Whitney Stadium.
On one hand, my predictions have not turned out too accurate this season. Which makes me want to pick against the Jags this week to see if that helps them win. But I think the players and coaches understand what this game means and will get back focused on the task at hand.
I think the Jags win outright in a close game.
Go Jags!