Preview: South Alabama Hosts Old Dominion On Senior Day, Regular Season Finale
Kickoff: Saturday, November 26, 11:00am
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
Thunderjags Twitter: @USAThunderjags
#5 Jersey: A.J. DeShazor
South Alabama’s (9-2, 6-1 SBC) win over Southern Miss (5-6, 3-4 SBC) wasn’t the stellar performance by the Jags. Fans will be quick to say that any win is a good win. But coaches will be quick to point out lots of things that need attention before the next game.
But both can be true, and this is one of those instances.
The Jags win was a good win. They showed great resilience in the face of adversity. Overcoming turnovers and a poorly executed fake punt in route to a 27-20 win on the road was exactly what a good team does. Head coach Kane Wommack’s process-oriented approach and neutral mindset philosophy has proven to be effective in changing the culture in the program.
The win sets a new record for wins in a season as a FBS program. The previous record was set just the week before. Now they have an opportunity to move that bar one notch higher with a 10th regular season win on the line this Saturday against Old Dominion.
Being Senior Day, it’s a great time to reflect on this group of seniors. Many of them have seen this program at it’s lowest (2-10 in 2019) and, even if the season ended prior to the game versus Old Dominion, they have seen the best FBS season for this same program. But they have one final chance to play in Hancock Whitney Stadium and earn a 10 win season. They’ll also have an opportunity to record the first-ever bowl win, they just have to wait to find out the details on when and where.
They also still have an outside shot to play in the Sun Belt Conference Championship game. They just have to win against Old Dominion and they need Arkansas State to upset Troy in Jonesboro, Arkansas.
Two of the seniors on the team are the last players to play under South Alabama’s first football coach and architect for the program, Joey Jones. Jalen Wayne and this weeks #5 jersey honoree, A.J. DeShazor.
Old Dominion (3-8, 2-5 SBC)
The Monarchs have had quite an interesting season first season in the Sun Belt. They opened the year with a 20-17 win over Virginia Tech. Then dropped games to East Carolina (39-21) and Virginia (16-14). They earned their second win against Arkansas State (29-26). They dropped their next game 38-24 against Liberty before knocking off the top team in the Sun Belt Conference, and gave them their only loss of the season so far, with a 49-21 win at Coastal Carolina.
They come to Mobile on a five-game losing skid after defeating the Chanticleers and looking to go into the offseason on a high note.
Offense
The offense is averaging 19.5 points, 335.9 total yards, 243.7 passing yards, 92.2 rushing yards, and 24:17 time of possession per game.
They are converting only 40-of-144 (27.8%) of their 3rd down attempts, and 7-of-20 (35%) of their 4th down attempts. Of their 24 trips into opponents red zone, they have scored points 19 times with 13 of them being touchdowns.
In total, they have thrown seven interceptions and lost 11 fumbles.
Hayden Wolff is 213-of-376 (56.7%) for 2,623 yards, 16 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.
Ali Jennings III is the leading receiver with 54 catches for 959 yards and nine touchdowns in only nine games played before being lost for the season to injury. Javon Harvey has 28 catches for 523 yards and three touchdowns in 11 games played. Blake Watson has 31 catches for 226 yards and a touchdown in 10 games played. Bly Jordan adds 22 catches for 225 yards in 10 games. Four other receivers have recorded over 100 yards on the season. One of those, Zach Kuntz, had 144 yards receiving on just 12 catches with two touchdowns in only five games before his season ended due to injury.
Blake Watson has 806 yards rushing on 140 attempts with five touchdowns in 10 games played. Keshawn Wicks has 125 yards on 32 attempts and a touchdown as the only other player with over 100 yards rushing on the season.
Complicating things is that the offensive line has been beat up this season too.
Defense
The Monarchs defense found itself bruised and beaten after last weeks game against Appalachian State. Linebackers Jason Henderson entered last weeks game just 28 tackles short of breaking the FBS record for tackles in a season. If he is able to go this week, he would need to record 26 tackles in order to get the record.
The defense is allowing an average of 26.6 points, 446.6 total yards, 249.2 passing yards, 197.5 rushing yards, and 35:43 time of possession per game.
Opponents are converting 68-of-170 (40%) of their 3rd down attempts and 13-of-22 (59.1%) of their 4th down attempts.
Of the 44 times opponents have been in the Monarch red zone, they have scored 32 times but only 19 have been touchdowns.
The defense has collected 11 interceptions and recovered 7 fumbles.
Unsurprisingly, Henderson is the leading tackler with 168 total stops, 52 of them solo. The next closest is R’Tarrium Johnson with 80 total tops, 48 solo. Henderson also leads the team with 10 tackles for loss. Ryan Henry and Denzel Lowry are tied leading the team with four sacks each.
Tre Hawkins III leads the team with just two interceptions. Nine other players have one interception each.
Special Teams
Ethan Sanchez is 8-of-11 on the season as placekicker. His long for the season is a 44-yarder. He’s missed one of this three attempts from 40-49 yards and two of his five attempted from 20-29 yards.
Ethan Duane is averaging 43.1 yards per punt. His longest punt of the season is a 59 yarder. He has 26 punts downed inside the 20, 20 have been fair caught, 13 kicks have gone over 50 yards and only three have been touchbacks.
South Alabama (9-2, 6-1 SBC)
Offense
The Jags are averaging 32.4 points, 426.1 total yards, 265.5 passing yards, 160.6 rushing yards, and 32:09 time of possession per game. They are converting 68-of-162 (42%) of their 3rd down attempts and 14-of-23 (60.9%) of their 4th down attempts.
They scoring on 38 of their 46 trips into the red zone with 28 of them being touchdowns.
They have only lost 4 fumbles on the season with only 9 interceptions as well.
Carter Bradley is 223-of-345 for 2,793 yards, 22 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the season. Desmond Trotter in only his third game appearance on the season is 14-of-18 for 127 yards with no interceptions or touchdowns.
Jalen Wayne continues to lead the receiving corps with 730 yards on 53 catches with eight touchdowns. Caullin Lacy has 706 yards on 52 catches with five touchdowns. Devin Voisin has 682 yards on 50 catches with four touchdowns. A pair of running backs and a pair of tight ends round out the receiving corps with over 100 yards on the season, all of them have one touchdown each.
La’Damian Webb, after missing his second game of the season, still leads the team with 941 yards on 179 carries with 13 touchdowns. He just needs 59 yards to hit the 1,000-yard mark for the season.
Braylon McReynolds, on his first start, had his first 100-yard rushing game against Southern Miss. He has 255 yards on 45 carries in nine games played. Marco Lee has 239 yards on 64 carries with four touchdowns, but the bruiser has converted a number of 3rd downs for the season. Omni Wells has 194 yards on 46 carries.
Defense
The defense is allowing an average of 19.4 points, 295.5 total yards, 208.6 passing yards, 86.8 rushing yards, and 27:24 time of possession for the season. Opponents are converting just 42-of-149 (28.2%) 3rd down attempts and 14-of-24 (58.3%) of 4th down attempts.
The stingy defense has only allowed 25 scores out of 32 trips into the red zone with only 16 being a touchdown.
Sun Belt Conference defensive player of the week Jaden Voisin had 17 total stops, 11 solo, with 1.5 tackles for loss and an interception last week against Southern Miss. Those tackles jumped him into the top stop for the team with 68 for the season, 37 solo, with 5.5 tackles for loss. Trey Kiser stayed in second place with 65 total stops, 48 solo, with 10 tackles for loss and a pair of sacks. James Miller dropped from the top spot to 3rd with 61 total stops, 35 solo, with 6.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks.
Yam Banks leads the team with five interceptions, but almost added one more against the Golden Eagles. Jaden Voisin moves into a tie with Ke’Shun Brown with two interceptions each.
Kiser and CJ Rias continue to pace the team with 10 tackles for loss each. Jamie Sheriff leads the team with 5 sacks.
Special Teams
Diego Gajardo had another perfect week for the Jags. He is now 15-of-16 for the season. He added a season-long 49-yarder just before halftime to give the Jags the lead going into the locker room.
Jack Brooks is averaging 42.4 yards per punt for the season with a long of 58. He has 8 kicks of 50+ yards, 16 downed inside the 20, 11 fair catches and only two touchbacks.
As coach Wommack highlighted in his weekly radio show, kickoff specialist Jacob Meeks has 25 touchbacks on the season. This is not an insignificant team stat. When you can consistently force touchbacks on kickoffs, the opponents are consistently having to drive the length of the field for touchdowns while preventing momentum-stealing kickoff returns.
Keys to the Game
Continue Limiting Penalties
The Jags entered the game last week ranked #1 in the nation in total penalties, total penalty yards, and penalty yards per game. Those are not categories you want to be a national leader in.
However, after two games with 13 and 11 penalties, the Jags were only flagged five times against Southern Miss. They avoided any post-play unsportsmanlike penalties. They only had one offensive penalty, a false start. But defensively they were flagged three times: one for defensive holding, one for pass interference, and once for targeting.
The targeting wasn’t egregious, the runner dipped his head while Rickey Hyatt Jr was leading with his head. He immediately knew he messed up as he immediately grabbed his head after the flag was thrown. The Jags were already without Jalen Jordan due to a targeting flag in the second half against Texas State.
It would be great for the team to limit penalties for a second-consecutive game.
Balanced Offensive Attack
In the three wins by Old Dominion they have successfully made their opponent primarily one-dimensional by limiting their opponents rushing attack.
Virginia Tech saw the most success on the ground with 136 rushing yards, but the Monarchs were at their peak health-wise. Arkansas State rushed for 112 yards. Coastal Carolina rushed for only 90 yards while the Monarchs had their way with 323 yards on the ground against the Chanticleers.
According to coach Wommack’s radio show, they believe that he will be able to play on Saturday. However, if last week is any indication, Braylon McReynolds would be ready to step into the starting role if needed. But Marco Lee and Omni Wells both rushed for nearly 100 yards each when both Webb and McReynolds were unavailable earlier in the season.
Don’t Look Ahead
With the Jags bowl eligible and eager to win their first bowl game, they can’t look ahead to an unknown opponent just because they are playing a 3-8 team. The Sun Belt has proven that from top to bottom, any team can win on any given week.
Just ask Coastal Carolina.
Though they are the lone top-25 ranked team from the Sun Belt, they would have most certainly been ranked higher than their current 23rd place. They are in the running for a new years 6 bowl game. If they are the highest ranked group of 5 champion, they get an automatic berth in a new years 6 bowl game.
Prediction
Depending on the site you look at the Jags are either a 16.5-point favorite or a 15.5-point favorite on others.
The Monarchs have had lots of attrition due to injury. They’ve lost two key pass catchers on the season. Their top tackler’s status is currently unknown for the season finale this week.
They have played well against their biggest opponents, power five opponent Virginia Tech and top Sun Belt team Coastal Carolina. They would like to add another win against one of the upper-level teams in the conference.
I think the Jags will thwart their attempt in the friendly confines of Hancock Whitney Stadium on Senior Day though. I also think they cover the 15.5 point spread due to the injury status of the Monarchs as well.
Go Jags!