Preview: South Alabama Travels To Georgia Southern
Kickoff: Saturday, November 5, 3:00pm
Venue: Allen E. Paulson Stadium, Statesboro, Georgia
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
Thunderjags Twitter: @USAThunderjags
#5 Jersey: Trey Kiser
South Alabama earned a decisive 31-3 win over Arkansas State last Saturday. But it was a bit more than just another win for the Jaguar football program. It was the sixth win of the season, which marks FBS Bowl Eligibility. A feat that has not been accomplished since 2016.
While six years doesn’t sound like a long time, in football terms it feels like an eternity.
La’Damian Webb started the game with a bang, reeling off a 69-yard run on the opening offensive play of the game. He finished the game with 162 yards on 28 carries with three touchdowns. He ran all 11 plays on the Jags final offensive possession, which ended with a score, late in the fourth quarter. That was good enough to earn him Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Week honors.
The Jags defense turned in a stellar performance too.
They held the Red Wolves to only 158 yards of total offense and -19 yards rushing. Only 3 of their 15 offensive possessions gained over 12 yards of offense. Five of their possessions finished with negative yardage.
But there’s a few things to work on from this game too. The Jags committed seven first-half penalties, but only one after halftime. Two of them were false starts when they were pinned deep at their own 2-yard line. No other Jaguar running back rushed for more than 12 yards. Webb shouldered the workload, but after Webb went out with an injury earlier in the season Omni Wells and Marco Lee came in rushed for season highs. Where did they go?
Now the Jaguars must turn their attention to Georgia Southern. Last season they broke through and won their first game ever against the Eagles 41-14, in Mobile. Now they get to follow up last seasons win with a trip to Statesboro to see if they can notch their second against the Eagles and their first in Statesboro.
Georgia Southern (5-3, 2-2 SBC)
Georgia Southern had been a long-time powerhouse in the FCS ranks. In 2014 they moved up to FBS and joined the Sun Belt Conference and proceeded to go undefeated 8-0 in conference play their first season. Their success put them as only the third team in the modern era to win a conference title in it’s first FBS season, and the first to ever go undefeated in conference play in their first FBS season. However, they were unable to go to a bowl game due to transition rules and the NCAA denied a waiver request by the school as well. (Also the Sun Belt Conference did not have a Conference Championship Game at that time either.)
In 2017 the Eagles hit their low point with a 2-10 season. But a 52-0 win over the Jags in Statesboro in the next to last game of the season led to South Alabama head coach Joey Jones to not be retained. Georgia Southern took the interim tag off of Chad Lunsford, who took over the head coaching duties for the Eagles mid-season. In 2018 they went 10-3 with a win over then #25 ranked rival Appalachian State and a bowl victory over Eastern Michigan.
In 2019 and 2020 they posted 7-5 records. The beginning of 2021, after a 1-2 start, the Eagles fired Lunsford and finished 3-9.
Former USC head coach Clay Helton was hired and immediately went to work overhauling the Eagles offense. Georgia Southern had been known as a triple-option powerhouse for many years in FCS and again in FBS.
Helton’s transition has been pretty successful too.
Offense
Helton and offensive coordinator Bryan Ellis’ offensive scheme see them throw the ball over an average of 45 times per game. Nealy 60% of their offensive plays have been pass plays so far this season.
Ellis came to GSU after helping Western Kentucky to a Conference USA championship in 2021 where their offense ranked 2nd in FBS with 44.2 points per game, 2nd in total offense (535.3 yards per game), and led the nation with 433.7 passing yards per game (41.1 yards above the 2nd ranked team). They had 92 offensive plays of 20+ yards with 24 going for touchdowns.
The Eagles offense is averaging 36.9 points, 494.5 total yards, 338.0 passing yards, 156.5 rushing yards, and 29:29 time of possession per game. They are converting 71-of-130 (54.6%) of their 3rd down attempts and 8-of-15 (53.3%) of their 4th down attempts on the season. They have committed 13 turnovers on the season, only one of them have been a fumble.
Of the Eagles 34 trips into the red zone, they have scored on 32 of those trips with 23 of them being touchdowns.
Kyle Vantrease, a transfer from Buffalo, is 232-of-374 (62%) passing on the season for 2,704 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.
While they have lots of numbers for their receivers, Khaleb Hood is their leading receiver with 53 catches for 609 yards and two touchdowns. Derwin Burgess Jr has 45 catches for 546 yards and five touchdowns. Jeremy Singleton has 46 catches for 497 yards and two touchdowns. Amare Jones has 35 catches for 483 yards and six touchdowns. The last receiver with double-digit receptions is Jalen White with 18 for 183 yards and a touchdown.
Jalen White leads the rushing attack with 678 yards on 132 carries with nine touchdowns. Gerald Green has 404 yards on 71 carries with six touchdowns.
Head coach Kane Wommack and defensive coordinator Corey Batoon have their hands full with this passing offense. But they use the rushing attack to open up their passing game.
Defense
As much as the offense takes, the defense allows almost as much.
On average the Eagles defense allows 30.4 points, 480.9 total yards, 270.1 passing yards, 210.8 rushing yards, and 30:31 time of possession per game. Opponents are converting 42-of-106 (39.6%) of their 3rd down attempts and 7-of-12 (58.3%) of their 4th down attempts.
The defense has taken the ball away 11 times on the season, only three of them have been fumble recoveries.
Of their opponents 35 trips into the red zone, they have only scored on 25 of them with 18 of them being touchdowns.
Special Teams
Alex Raynor has attempted all but one of the team’s field goal attempts. He is 12-of-14 on the season with a long of 45 yards and has only missed one of his 36 extra point attempts. Michael Lantz attempted one from 50+ yards but was unsuccessful.
Anthony Beck II has punted 26 times with an average of 44 yards per kick with 11 downed inside the 20, six kicks of 50+ yards with a long of 59.
South Alabama (6-2, 3-1 SBC)
Offense
The Jags are now averaging 31.6 points, 422.8 total yards, 274.5 passing yards, 148.3 rushing yards, and 31.46 time of possession per game this season. They didn’t have a particularly good game on 3rd down so their conversion rate on the season is now 50-of-116 (43.1%) and their 4th down conversion rate is 5-of-12 (41.7%) on the season.
They didn’t give the ball away last weekend so they hold fast with only 7 offensive turnovers, two of them being fumbles. Of 33 trips to the red zone, they have scored 28 times with 21 of them being touchdowns.
Carter Bradley saw all the action against the Red Wolves and is now 172-of-262 (65.7%) for 2,088 yards, 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. Most of the passing plays against the Red Wolves were short and towards the perimeter due to the rainy conditions. They wanted to limit the possibility of a wet ball being tipped or slipping through a receivers hands and being intercepted.
Jalen Wayne leads the way receiving with 642 yards and six touchdowns on 43 catches. Caullin Lacy is right behind him with 582 yards and three touchdowns on 45 catches. Devin Voisin has 425 yards on 36 catches with a touchdown.
Webb has 649 rushing yards on the season on 128 attempts with nine touchdowns. Then there’s a big dropoff to the next rushers: 157 yards by Omni Wells, 152 yards for Marco Lee but he has four touchdowns. True freshman Braylon McReynolds, who made his return to the lineup after missing a couple games, has 108 yards on 22 carries this season as a true freshman.
Defense
After the big effort last week, the Jags statistics are looking great this year. They are now ranked 4th in FBS in rushing defense, 16th in scoring defense, 8th in 3rd down conversion defense, and 18th in first down defense.
The defense is allowing an average of 17.6 points, 294.5 total yards, 209.8 passing yards, 84.8 rushing yards, and 27:36 time of possession per game.
Opposing offenses are converting 29-of-107 (27.1%) of their 3rd down attempts and 10-of-17 (58.8%) of their 4th down attempts.
Defensively they have taken the ball away 16 times, 7 fumbles and 9 interceptions.
James Miller leads the team with 44 total stops, 24 solo, with 4 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks. Jaden Voisin has 43 total stops, 25 solo, with 4 tackles for loss and an interception.
CJ Rias leads the team with 5.5 tackles for loss with Trey Kiser right behind him with 5 TFL’s. Jamie Sheriff, with his effort against ASU, leads the team with for sacks. Rias is right on his heels with three sacks. Yam Banks continues to lead the team with four interceptions.
Special Teams
Diego Guajardo only saw action in extra point attempts, where he made all four. He is still a perfect 11-of-11 on the season with a long of 48.
Jack Brooks, who wore the honorary #5 jersey, is averaging 41.88 yards per kick this season. He has 14 downed inside the 20. Although he had one mishap against Arkansas State, when a snap got away from him and he was taken down without being able to punt the ball away.
Keys to the Game
Fast Start
When the Jags get off to a fast start against a team, they seemingly cannot be stopped. Through eight games, when the Jags lead after the first quarter, they are 6-1. They jumped out to a 14-3 lead over Arkansas State and never looked back. They were up 14-0 over Louisiana Tech and also sailed to a 38-14 win. Also, against Central Michigan, they jumped out to a 20-7 lead and a 31-10 halftime lead as they cruised to a 38-24 win, though CMU scored two late touchdowns to make it seem much closer than it was. The lone loss was to UCLA where they held 10-6 lead after the first quarter.
The Jags recipe for success is to jump on their opponent early and seize the momentum. This has really helped this team go from a bad road record team to sitting at 3-1 in road games this season, the first time a Jags team has won three road games in a season since 2014. Until this season the Jags had only won three road games in total in the previous four seasons. They were winless on the road for two seasons in 2018 and 2019.
It would be nice to jump out to a fast start on Saturday in Statesboro.
Defensive Front Play
The Jags have allowed several explosive plays through the air on defense. Explosive plays are not an official stat, so their definition varies by team. Some consider an explosive pass play to be 15 yards or more, others define it as 20 yards or more.
The Jags secondary hasn’t been the strongest unit, but they aren’t slouches either. Offenses are throwing the ball more over the last several years than they have in years before so defensive secondaries are under more pressure than ever before. But the Jags defense has turned teams one-dimensional with their 4th ranked rushing defense.
The Jags lost preseason honoree Keith Gallmon to injury in preseason camp. Darrell Luter has been hampered by a wrap on one of his hands. Transfer Jamar Richardson missed time with an injury. The latest injury to affect the secondary was to transfer Marvin Martin, who was rushed to the hospital by ambulance after a hit during practice. News has been positive for Martin, it remains unknown if his playing career is over but the current focus is on his health and wellbeing.
Last week against Arkansas State, a fairly prolific passing team, the Jags defensive front generated a ton of pressure on a quarterback that wasn’t 100% and playing in the rain. They generated four sacks in the game with numerous quarterback hurries.
But they shut down the run and made Arkansas State one dimensional.
Coach Wommack and coach Batoon have a goal to shut down the Georgia Southern rushing attack. The Eagles establish the run early to then open up the passing game.
Strong play by the defensive front, particularly the defensive line, to shut down the run and also in generating pressure on the quarterback will be key to limiting the Eagles scoring opportunities.
The Jags will definitely be without linebacker Quentin Wilfawn as coach Wommack announced that he will miss the remainder of the season with a neck issue that will require surgery. However, they say he will have eligibility for the 2023 season and will be able to return along with Keith Gallmon.
Turnovers
Any time you play on the road, turnovers are a key part of the game. You’re playing in a hostile environment and a turnover can give momentum to your opponent and energize their fans.
South Alabama has been quite greedy with turnovers. With a +9 turnover margin (16 takeaways to 7 giveaways) the Jags often win the turnover battle. However, defensive coaches have been encouraging the defense that they should be generating more turnovers. Look for the Jags to be eager to give the ball back to their offense more down the stretch. This weekend would be a great time to get that ball rolling with more momentum in the closing month of the regular season.
Prediction
The spread has been a consistent with the Jags as a 3.5 to 4 point favorite over the Eagles.
The Eagles are 3-0 at home this season with a 45-38 win over then #25 ranked James Madison just a couple of weeks ago. They also notched a 45-42 win over Power 5 Nebraska in week 2. Add in that they were on a bye last Saturday; the Jags will be facing a rested Georgia Southern team in a very tough environment.
Coach Wommack and his staff always has his team ready to play. They have turned the overall culture around very quickly and the road game culture is paying off so far this season.
This is a very winnable game, but it also has me nervous. I feel that it’s going to be an interesting and exciting game, but I feel that the Jags win a very close game. Possibly too close for comfort.
Go Jags!