Preview: South Alabama Visits Appalachian State For Final Conference Road Game Of Season
Kickoff: Saturday November 13, 1:30pm
Venue: Kidd Brewer Stadium – Boone, NC
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
#5 Jersey (wearing 55 for an offensive lineman): Trey Simpson
Thunderjags Twitter: @USAThunderjags
South Alabama didn’t get the result they were hoping for at Troy last weekend.
It looked like the Jags had a good gameplan from the start. However losing your starting quarterback on the opening possession tends to throw a monkeywrench into your plans. Then having a pair of mistakes by the next man up leading to two easy scores definitely doesn’t help matters.
Quarterback Jake Bentley, on only his second pass attempt of the game, stepped into the throw on a play-action pass and was hit low, below the knee, causing his knee to flex laterally. He was in visible pain on the ground after the play. After being attended to by the trainers, he jogged off the field but could still be seen favoring his left knee.
Desmond Trotter finished off the opening drive with a four yard touchdown run. On the next offensive possession, with the Jags at their own 24 yard line, a botched hand off resulted in the a fumble that was recovered by Troy. That turnover led to a field goal.
With the Jags trailing 24-7 Trotter was pressured and threw the ball in an attempt to prevent a sack, however Troy intercepted it and took it 32 yards for a touchdown. While it was their last points of the game, it would be all Troy would need for the win.
Bentley has a partially torn MCL and at the very least will miss this weeks game at Appalachian State. What his status will be going forward is still very much unknown. Team doctors will be involved as to any likelihood that he could suit up again for any of the remaining games. The concern is some “looseness” with his ACL.
The Jaguars still need to get one more win to bowl eligible with just three games left. The next chance is Appalachian State on the road this weekend. So let’s get started with the breakdown.
Appalachian State
The Mountaineers (7-2, 4-1 SBC) went to Arkansas State and earned a 48-14 win over the Red Wolves.
Arkansas State scored twice in the second quarter to tie the game at 14-all. But it was all App State after that with 34-unanswered points to close out the game. Among those 34 unanswered were two interceptions returned for touchdowns by the defense.
App State’s two losses came to #22 Miami 24-23 on September 11 and on October 12 at Louisiana-Lafayette 41-13.
They rebounded from the Louisiana loss on a Tuesday to defeat #14 Coastal Carolina on a nationally televised Wednesday night game on October 20.
Boone, NC is always a difficult place to play. But with with a forecast of a high of 41 degrees and winds between 10 to 20 MPH it doesn’t make it any more welcoming.
The Mountaineers are in their second season under the direction of head football coach Shawn Clark. He was named the head coach after Eliah Drinkwitz left after one season to take the head coaching position at Missouri.
Eight days after taking the reigns, Clark led the Mountaineers to a 31-17 win over UAB in the 2019 New Orleans Bowl.
In his first season as a head coach the Mountaineers went 9-3 and 6-2 in Sun Belt Conference play. They finished 2nd in the east division with a 56-28 win over North Texas in the Myrtle Beach Bowl.
Offense
Here is the offense by the numbers.
They average 36.9 points, 200.8 yards rushing, 263.3 passing yards, and 464.1 total offensive yards per game. They average 24.4 first downs per game.
They are converting 44-of-116 (38%) of their 3rd down attempts. They are also converting 11-of-20 (55%) of their 4th down attempts.
Their red zone efficiency is very high. Of their 34 red zone trips they have scored 31 times (91%) and of those scores 21 of them have been touchdowns.
Their offensive line has only allowed 9 sacks on the season.
They have 14 turnovers on the season. Six interceptions and out of 14 total fumbles, they’ve failed to recover eight of them.
Quarterback Chase Brice is 172-of-264 for 2,261 yards, 15 touchdowns, and six interceptions.
Corey Sutton and Malik Williams are the top two receivers with almost identical numbers. Sutton has 47 catches for 711 yards and 5 touchdowns with an average of 15.1 yards per reception. Williams has 45 catches for 678 yards and 5 touchdowns with an average of 15.1 yards per catch.
The receiving numbers drop off pretty substantially after those two. Thomas Hennigan is third on the team with 34 catches for 472 yards and two touchdowns. No other receiver has more than nine catches after him.
The rushing statistics are similarly dominated by two individuals. Nate Noel leads the way with 153 carries for 889 yards and three touchdowns. Camerun Peoples is next with 105 carries for 609 yards and 13 touchdowns (double checks the number…wow) in seven games. Both average 5.8 yards per carry.
Chase Brice is next in line with 43 carries for 95 yards and two touchdowns. Followed by Anderson Castle with 24 carries for 120 yards and two touchdowns. No other ball carrier has over 59 yards rushing on the season after those four.
Defense
The App State defense is allowing an average of 23.3 points, 133.9 rushing yards, 226 passing yards, and 359.9 total yards per game.
Opponents are converting 46-of-129 (36%) 3rd down attempts and 4-of-10 (40%) of their 4th down attempts.
Opposing offenses have had 31 trips into the red zone, they have scored 25 times (81%), but only 16 of them have been touchdowns (52%).
They have an eye-opeing 66 tackles for loss and have sacked opposing quarterbacks 24 times on the season. They’ve collected 17 turnovers on the season, forcing 13 interceptions and recovering 4 fumbles.
D’Marco Jackson leads the Mountaineer defense with a whopping 84 total stops, 42 of them solo, with 12 tackles for loss, five sacks, and seven quarterback hurries from his linebacker position.
The next closest defender is Nick Hampton with 48 total stops, 27 solo, with a team leading 12.5 tackles for loss and six sacks.
Steven Jones leads the team with six interceptions.
This is another case where the Jags offensve will have to be able to operate behind the down and distance schedule. The Mountaineers will get negative plays.
As with any game, South Alabama must protect the ball, but against a ball-hawking defense like App State they will be out to pick off Trotter if he makes an errant throw.
Special Teams
Chandler Staton is perfect on the season. He’s made all 38 extra point attempts and all 14 field goal attempts. His longest is a 48 yard attempt against Georgia State.
Xavier Subotsch has punted 29 times on the season with an average of 39.6 yards per kick, 17 of them have been downed inside the 20 yard line and one went 51 yards, the only one to go over 50 yards for him this season. While his average yards isn’t high, he’s hasn’t needed to be. He’s been very effective with over half of his punts being downed inside the 20 yard line.
South Alabama
The loss of Bentley came as he was playing some of his best football. The offense struggled when Trotter took over but eventually started to find their rhythm and had a chance at a tying drive late in the game.
With a week of practice, Trotter should be well prepared to take back over the role he had previously. Trotter completed 64.5% of his passes last season for 1,917 yards and 11 touchdowns.
There are things that Bentley does that elevated himself over Trotter and earned the starting position. However there are things that Trotter does better than Bentley. One of the major things is his legs. He can run and he can extend plays.
We saw him use his legs on the first snap he took in place of Bentley.
Troy took away the deep threat of Jalen Tolbert and Jalen Wayne. Trotter and company found success underneath with one of his favorite targets being Lincoln Sefcik.
In the second half offensive coordinator Major Applewhite and Trotter pieced together a 19 play, 76 yard drive for a touchdown that drained 9:52 off the clock.
Offense
Let’s get the stats out of the way.
On average the Jags are scoring 28.6 points per game. They are rushing for an average of 135 yards, throwing for an average of 252.9 yards, and putting up an average of 387.9 total yards per game.
They are converting 47-of-131 (36%) of their 3rd down attempts and 19-of-28 (68%) of their 4th down attempts.
Their red zone trips have resulted in points on 33-of-39 (85%) times, with 28 of them being touchdowns.
Jaguar quarterbacks have been sacked 19 times on the season.
With the interception and fumble against Troy the offense has now had 15 turnovers, six have been interceptions along with nine lost fumbles out of 12 total fumbles.
Jake Bentley currently stands at 184-of-262 passing which is a 70.2% completion rate for 2,122 yards, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Trotter is 21-of-34 (61.8%) for 154 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.
Jalen Tolbert has caught 58 passes for 1,032 yards and six touchdowns, for back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons for the Jags.
Jalen Wayne has 37 catches for 414 yards and two touchdowns. Caullin Lacy has 34 catches for 269 yards and Lincoln Sefcik has 26 catches for 201 yards and three touchdowns. Avery is the last player with double-digit catches with 17 for 92 yards and three touchdowns.
Terrion Avery has hit triple digit carries on the season now with 118 for 474 yards with one touchdown. Bryan Hill has 67 carries for 297 and three touchdowns. Kareem Walker, who didn’t see any playing time last week, has 63 carries for 237 yards and four touchdowns.
Defense
The defense played quite a good game outside of a pair of touchdown drives late in the first quarter and early second. The other two touchdown came on a very short field after a fumbled handoff attempt and a pick-six.
On to the numbers.
The defense is allowing an average of 22.1 points per game, 117.2 rushing yards, 202.1 passing yards, and 319.3 total offensive yards per game.
Opponents are converting 39-of-125 (31%) of their third down attempts and 9-of-16 (56%) of their 4th down attempts. Opponents have scored on 20-of-30 (67%) of their red zone trips, out of those 20 scores only 14 have been touchdowns.
The Jags defense have taken the ball away from opponents 18 times, 12 have been by interception and six have been fumbles. They’ve also sacked opposing quarterbacks 24 times on the season.
Quentin Wilfawn leads the defense with 45 total stops, 18 solo with 1 sack and 2.5 tackles for loss. Trey Young is not far behind with 41 total stops, 24 solo, with 1.5 tackels for loss and tied for the team lead with three interceptions.
Charles Coleman III and CJ Rias are tied for the team’s sack lead with three each. Christian Bell is next in line with 2.5 sacks. Then Wy’Kevious Thomas, Chris Henderson, Shawn Jennings, and Jamall Hickbottom all have two sacks each.
Jamal Brooks leads the team with 5.5 tackles for loss. Wy’Kevious Thomas right behind him with five tackles for loss.
Darrell Luter is tied with Young with three interceptions.
Special Teams
Diego Guajardo made all four extra points and his only field goal attempt against the Trojans. He is now 29-of-31 on extra points and 10-of-14 on field goals, with a long of 48.
Jack Brooks has punted 38 times with an average of 42.5 yards per attempt with 11 downed inside the 20 and nine have traveled over 50 yards.
Keys to the Game
Establishing the Run
The coaches will probably ease Trotter into the game. Look for them to probably lean on the run quite a bit and use short, high percentage throws to make sure he is comfortable and get him going, especially against a ball-hawking secondary like the Mountaineers field.
With Trotters dual threat ability you’ll likely see more zone read looks than what they call with Bentley. If that is successful then that could open up Wayne and Tolbert for some big plays down field.
Stopping the Run
App State thrives on running the ball. The Jags defense loves to shut down the run.
Who wins that battle could determine the game.
App State runs the ball to open up the pass. When they can open up the pass they are a very hard team to beat.
The Elements
Weather forecasts are calling for a cold and breezy game in Boone. It may not snow but it may feel like it should when they are playing.
The training staff will have to ensure that all the players warm up properly in pre-game and stay warm throughout the game.
Cold weather tends to make skin and extremity injuries more painful due to the cold’s effect on the sensory nerves. Players also tend to be an increased risk of muscle strains and tears, usually to the hamstring, quadriceps and calf muscles. But with winds over 5 mph and temperatures around 40 or below you can experience hypothermia or cold-induced asthma.
Special teams players are usually at a heightened risk as they only play intermittently and are expected to go “all out” without significant warm up time.
Skill players also need to keep their hands warm or risk fumbles or dropped balls as well.
Prediction
It’s not like the Jaguars are having to prep and start a quarterback who’s never started before. Trotter has 14 starts in his career at South Alabama.
But the Jags will also be getting some players back from injury. James Jackson looks to be ready to suit up, but it’s not a certainty he will start or play. If an injury happens to occur, Trey Simpson could move back over to guard and Jackson could potentially play at center. Wilfawn and CJ Rias may both be able to play as well. Having any or all of these will help tremendously.
Will it be enough?
The Jags are a 21.5 point underdog on the road against the Mountaineers. With that number I’ll definitely take the Jags and the points.
Can the Jags win outright?
They’ve responded to losses like Texas State and ULM with some big wins. They need at least one more this season to get bowl eligible.
It won’t be easy on the road. Boone is a tough place to enter and leave with a win and the elements may not be the most favorable. But I think the Jags can do just that. It’ll be a bit of a statement win on the road against a conference foe.
Go Jags!