Preview: Battle For The Belt Edition, Jags Look To Bring The Belt Back From Troy
Kickoff: Saturday November 6, 2:30pm
Venue: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Alabama
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: 96.1 fm The Rocket, Sports Talk 99.5 fm, iHeartRadio App
Thunderjags Twitter: @USAThunderjags
#5 Jersey: Darrell Luter
It’s Battle for the Belt Week.
South Alabama (5-3, 2-3 SBC) came out of the locker room ready to play from the opening whistle. They scored touchdowns on each of their first four possessions in route to a 31-13 win over Arkansas State (1-7, 0-4 SBC).
The only touchdown allowed came on the ensuing kickoff after the Jags fourth touchdown of the first half.
Jalen Tolbert scored the first two touchdowns for his 9th career touchdown against the Red Wolves.
Terrion Avery is only the second Jaguar to rush for over 100 yards in a game this season. The last was Kareem Walker against Alcorn State back in week 3 of the season.
Second half adjustments by Arkansas State really stymied the Jaguars offense in the second half. They had negative yardage in the third quarter. While the offensive adjustments by the Red Wolves helped them to have more production in the second half, the Jaguar defense kept them out of the end zone and forced four turnovers.
Now the Jags are just one win away from bowl eligibility.
But they also being the much talked about three-game road swing. It all begins on the road in Troy, AL.
Troy
The Trojans are 4-4 overall, 2-2 in Sun Belt play and the largest margin of defeat was 13 points to the ULM. Both of their conference wins have been by 3 points (27-24 over Georgia Southern in Troy, 31-28 over Texas State in San Marcos). Both conference wins came by late game heroics.
The two conference losses have come at the hands of ULM (29-16) and Coastal Carolina (35-28).
Their two non-conference wins were over Southern (55-3) and Southern Miss (21-9). Their losses were to Liberty (21-13) and South Carolina (23-14).
Offense
Here are the Trojans by the numbers. They are averaging 27.4 points, 138.3 rushing yards, 243.7 passing yards and 382 total offensive yards per game.
They are 41-of-99 (41.4%) on third down situations. They are 6-of-11 (54.6%) on fourth down situations.
In the red zone they have scored 19-of-25 trips, with 15 of them being touchdowns.
The offense has fumbled the ball 8 times and lost possession 6 times. Quarterbacks have thrown 4 interceptions on the season.
Kimani Vidal leads the running back corps with 105 attempts for 553 yards and 5 touchdowns. BJ Smith has 248 yards on 54 attempts with 2 touchdowns. Jamontez Woods has 222 yards on 40 carries with 4 touchdowns.
Taylor Powell, a transfer from Missouri, started the first four games of the season before being sidelined by a knee injury. Powell is 101-of-153 for 960 yards, 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in those four games.
Gunnar Watson has started the last four games and is 68-of-100 for 746 yards and 6 touchdowns without an interception. Watson started nine games last season before being beaten out for the job by Powell.
Tez Johnson is the teams leading receiver with 46 catches for 481 yards and three touchdowns.
Reggie Todd in the next leading receiver with 21 catches for 257 yards and a touchdown. However Todd has been indefinitely suspended after being arrested on a charge of hindering prosecution in relation to a shooting during a high school football game at Ladd-Peebles Stadium on October 15.
Three other receivers have over 100 yards receiving on the season and five have 10 or more catches on the season.
While the offense hasn’t been overly productive, they really been kept in games by their defense.
The Jags know how that goes.
Defense
The Troy defense is a scrappy, stingy unit.
Statistically speaking the Trojans defense allows an average of 21.6 points, 99.9 rushing yards, 211.4 passing yards, and 311.3 total yards of offense per game.
Opponents are converting 35-of-101 (34.7%) 3rd down attempts and 6-of-9 (66.7%) 4th down attempts.
When opponents get into the red zone, they have scored all 13 times, however less than half have been touchdowns (6-of-13).
As a team the defense has 59 tackles for loss with 27 sacks, 13 interceptions, and 3 fumble recoveries.
Linebacker Carlton Martial from Mobile’s McGill-Toolen HS, leads the team with 70 total tackles, 31 solo, 8 tackles for loss, a sack, and an interception.
The next two combined come up one short of Martial’s total. Javon Solomon from the Bandit position has 35 total stops, 19 solo with 11.5 tackles for loss and team leading 8 sacks and an interception. Linebacker KJ Robertson has 34 total stops with 3 tackles for loss and 1/2 sack.
The defense kept the game against Coastal Carolina close in the fourth quarter. The Chanticleers gambled with a fake punt on a 4th and 4 from their own 31, which paid off in their favor. Though they still had to punt a little later, they were able to burn more time off the clock before doing so.
The Trojan defense forced three interceptions in the fourth quarter against Texas State. One of them went for a touchdown which provided the go-ahead score.
The week before that the defense collected an interception which allowed the Trojans to drive and get the game-winning field goal with 1:46 left in the game.
Troy’s defense ranks 18th in the nation in total defense, 39th in passing yards allowed, 20th in rushing defense, T36th 3rd down conversion percentage, and T10th in turnovers gained. Which right there with the Jags.
Special Teams
Brooks Buce is 4-of-4 on field goal attempts, his longes of the season is only 34 yards and is 24-of-25 in extra point attempts.
Luke Magliozzi has punted 38 times on the season with an average of 42.8 yards per kick, 15 fair catches, 9 downed inside the 20, 7 have gone 50+ yards with the longest being 65 yards.
South Alabama
One win away from bowl eligibility. Did any fans think this would happen a year ago?
It’s a testament to head coach Kane Wommack and his staff for the progress they’ve been able to make through eight games.
Offense
Four touchdowns on their first four possessions. This is type of execution a coach wants to see.
Statistically the Jags are averaging 29.1 points, 133.4 rushing yards, 261.1 passing yards and 394.5 total yards of offense per game.
They are converting 43-of-115 3rd down attempts (37%) and they are converting 13-of-20 on 4th down (65%).
The offense has given the ball away 13 times with 8 fumbles loss on 10 total fumbles and five interceptions.
Terrion Avery, who wore the honorary #5 jersey, showed why he earned. Avery was only the second Jag rusher to run for over 100 yards this season. He continues to be the Jags leading rusher with 399 yards on 95 carries with a touchdown.
Bryan Hill is next in line with 271 yards on 58 carries with three touchdowns. Kareem Walker, in only his second game back from a quad inury, has 237 yards on 63 carries with four touchdowns in five games of action.
Jake Bentley is the first Jag in five seasons to throw for over 2,000 yards. And he’s only 2/3rds of the way through the season!
On the season Bentley is 181-of-259 (69.9%) for 2,073 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Not only is Jalen Tolbert leading the team, but he’s among the best in the conference and the nation in receiving. He has 54 catches for 967 yards with six touchdowns.
Jalen Wayne is next in line with 34 catches for 385 yards and two touchdowns. Caullin Lacy has 262 yards on 32 catches. Lincoln Sefcik has 17 catches for 146 yards with three touchdowns.
Defense
South Alabama’s defense held the Red Wolves to only 28 yards of total offense in the first half. The rushing yardage was -12! Though they weren’t quite as dominant in the second half, they didn’t allow a single touchdown.
Statistically the defense is allowing an average of 21 points, 118.5 rushing yards, 202.2 passing yards and 320.8 total offensive yards per game.
Opponents are converting 33-of-113 (29%) of their 3rd down attempts and 9-of-16 (56%) of their 4th down attempts.
On the season they have 54 tackles for loss with 24 sacks. Jamal Brooks, despite not playing, still leads the team with 5.5 tackles for loss. Charles Coleman III tied CJ Rias for the team lead with 3 sacks.
With Darrell Luter’s two interceptions he jumps Tre Young into the team lead with 3 on the season.
Quentin Wilfawn leads the team with 36 total stops, 18 solo with two tackles for loss and a sack. Keith Gallmon and Yam Banks are still tied with 35 stops each and both have 21 solo.
The first two interceptions last week came at great times. The Red Wolves were starting to move the ball some and the Jags were able to shut those drives down with turnovers. The final one simply sealed the game with a nice exclamation point.
Special Teams
Diego Guajardo connected on all four extra points against Arkansas State, he’s not 26-of-28 on the season. He also connected on a 39 yard field, his only attempt of the night, to put the icing on the game. He’s not 9-of-13 on the season.
Jack Brooks’ punting averaging a solid 41.6 yards per attempt.
Keys to the Game
Offensive line
Which way the game goes will greatly depend offensive line play. Both defenses create havoc which results in negative plays and turnovers.
The Jaguar offensive line needs to communicate and play well in a hostile environment. If they can give Bentley and his receivers time, the Trojan defense is susceptible to big plays. Can you think of a better pair of receivers ready to exploit a secondary deep than the two Jalen’s?
Playing Behind Schedule
The Trojan defense generate a lot of negative plays. The Jaguar offense will have to find a way to be comfortable playing behind schedule.
That means they need to come to terms with and be comfortable executing 2nd-and-12 or 3rd-and-long situations. They don’t necessarily need to get all the yards back in a chunk but they must execute each and every play with a neutral mindset.
A player does not need to be heroic when behind schedule, they just need to execute their job each and every play at a high level no matter the previous outcome.
Injuries
You can’t talk about injuries without circling back to point number one: offensive line.
The Jags are thin as gift tissue paper on the offensive line right now. Center James Jackson injured his knee a couple of games ago. Hadon Merchant missed last week with a knee injury. Right guard Anterrious Gray suffered a concussion against Arkansas State and will have to clear the concussion protocol in order to play against Troy.
Due to Jackson’s injury, Trey Simpson moved from guard to center. If neither Jackson nor Merchant are able to play against Troy, that would likely leave Kent Foster and a group of freshmen and former walk-ons to back up the interior of the offensive line.
But that’s not all.
Jamal Brooks missed playing time against Arkansas State due to a shoulder injury that he had been trying to play through.
Bryan Hill broke a 47 yard run, his only carry of the game, but exited the game with a shoulder injury of his own.
Not only do they need to stay healthy but, if needed, they need to be ready if their number is called.
Prediction
Head coach Kane Wommack talked to the team about the Battle for the Belt rivalry on Monday. He brought in the empty case that houses the belt when under South Alabama’s care.
The Trojans have won the last three games in the series and currently holds a 6 games to 3 advantage in the series.
The last time the Jags won was in 2017 when coach Wommack was the defensive coordinator.
What could be sweeter than the Jags ending the three winning streak, bringing the belt back home, and getting bowl eligible against your in-state rival?
But Troy would like to keep their streak alive and also get within one game of bowl eligibility themselves.
Troy is favored by 3.5 points in the game. Basically an even game but given the three point home boost. I think the Jags get it done and win outright, get bowl eligible, and bring the belt back to Mobile.
Go Jags!