South Alabama’s Path To Bowl Eligibility: A Look Into The Crystal Football
After the last few seasons, how many people who would have thought the South Alabama would start the season 3-0 and looking at the prospects of getting bowl eligible?
That’s half way to bowl eligibility.
With nine games left, they have plenty of opportunities to win at least three more games. To do so, they have some work to do. But that’s a topic for another article.
In only three game it’s really looking like the hiring of Kane Wommack is the shot in the arm that the South Alabama program needed.
The cultural shift has been nothing short of phenomenal.
Seeing the way the team plays this season versus last season, it’s like night and day. The team responds to adversity in positive, productive ways.
They have bought in.
I don’t know if coach Wommack has a name for his approach, but his “neutral mindset” approach is similar to what other successful head coaches have implemented.
Nick Saban has “The Process” and is in the midst of an unprecedented run in college football at Alabama. P.J. Fleck has the mantra “Row the Boat,” which he’s used to bring Minnesota out of irrelevance in the Big 10. In Fleck’s case, he uses three physical items to reinforce his approach: the oar, the boat, and the compass.
Both Saban and Fleck concentrate on what you can control and living in the present. You cannot change the past. You have no way to know what the future will hold. They all focus on the next play.
Coach Wommack has consistently talked about having a neutral mindset approach. It’s his version of “the process” or “row the boat.” He stresses for the players to approach the next play with a neutral mindset: forget about the past and focus on the next play.
Breaking the Rules
We are going to go against his philosophy and actually take a look ahead. We are going to look down the remaining nine games and guess the likelihood that the Jags can get those necessary wins for bowl-eligibility.
What’s in Store
October 2nd vs Louisiana-Lafayette
Billy Napier is in his 4th season at the helm with back-to-back 10-win seasons under his belt. He also had the Cajuns ranked in the top 25 for a bit last year. However they had to eek out a 27-24 win over FCS Nicholls State in week two of the season.
The Cajuns will have to travel to Georgia Southern before coming to Mobile. Meanwhile the Jags will have an extra week to rest, heal and prepare with a bye week. This could be a game the Jags earn an upset win.
October 9th at Texas State
The Bobcats are have not won more than three games in a season in the last several years. The two teams have faced each other six times since 2013 and the series is evenly split 3-3 with neither team collecting a road win over the other.
The bobcats are probably one of the weaker teams the Jags will face in Sun Belt Conference play. If they play like they should, this should be one of the three wins they need to earn bowl eligibility. However the Bobcats will have a bye week before facing the Jags.
October 14th (Thursday) vs Georgia Southern
The Jags have never defeated the Eagles in any of their seven contests. Though, over the last two seasons, the Jags have closed the scoring gap between the two schools. The 2019 game taking two overtime periods for the Eagles to leave with a 20-17 win.
Georgia Southern opened the season with a struggle win over Gardner-Webb 30-25. They then were spanked by Florida Atlantic 38-6. Last week they were spanked again by #20 Arkansas.
Georgia Southern will travel to Mobile on a short week for a Thursday night game. That will be just after traveling to Troy for a 7pm game the previous Saturday. But the Jags will also have a short week, however they will not have the burden of traveling for the game.
This may be one of the winnable games for the Jags. It would be a huge monkey-off-the-back wins for the program as well.
October 23rd at ULM
The Warhawks had their bye week on the second week of the season, that’s really early. Their first game was a 35 point loss to Kentucky then a 12-7 win over Dion ‘Prime Time’ Sanders coached Jackson State, an FCS school.
The Warhawks only managed four field goals in the win.
However that’s an improvement over their winless 0-10 season in 2020. Though the season was hampered by players missing games due to Covid.
This may be the weakest Sun Belt team the Jags face this season. Historically the Jags are 0-3 in Monroe and this would be another opportunity for coach Wommack and the team to get another monkey off the programs back.
October 30th vs Arkansas State
Arkansas State hired Butch Jones to replace Blake Anderson. Jones was previously an analyst at Alabama as was offensive coordinator Major Applewhite.
Talking about getting a monkey off their back, last year the Jags were able earn their first win in Jonesboro, Arkansas in their fifth try.
After a long run of success, the Red Wolves finished the 2020 season 4-7. They sat home during bowl season for the first time since 2010.
So far this season ASU only has a win over FCS Central Arkansas. They lost a 55-50 shootout against Memphis in week two, then avoided a shutout against Washington in a 52-3 loss last week.
This should be a winnable game for the Jags. A lot of it depends on what first-year head coach Butch Jones does between now and then.
November 6 at Troy
This starts a four week stretch very stiff competition for the Jags. It’s also the first of three consecutive road games.
The Jags have lost the last three “Battle for the Belt” contests. They have also lost four of the last five. The only win in that stretch is the 2017 defensive slugfest when coach Wommack was defensive coordinator.
The Trojans have wins over Southern (55-3) and Southern Miss (21-9) on the season. They lost their second game of the season 21-13 to Liberty.
The Trojans missed an opportunity to get to .500 and bowl eligible when their season finale against ULM was cancelled leaving them with a 5-6 record overall.
In what’s looking like a pattern, the the Trojans will have a couple extra days to prepare to host the Jags. However they will be coming off a Thursday night game against current conference leader Coastal Carolina.
While the last three games have not been particularly close games, this season should be different. This will likely be a close game, as rivalry games should be. But it should be winnable.
November 13 at App State
The Jags have struggled against the Mountaineers the last two times they’ve faced each other (2018 and 2019). In those two games the Jags were defeated by a combined score of 82-10.
Overall the Jags are 1-3 against the Mountaineers. Their only win was a 47-21 contest in Boone in 2014 but then fell to them the following year.
The Mountaineers came up a little short of upsetting #22 Miami 25-23 in week two of the season. They opened the season with a win over East Carolina then defeated Elon the week after the Miami game.
Last night they struggled for most of the game against Marshall. They gave the ball away twice and Marshall capitalized with 10 points off of them. But the missed field goal by the Thundering Herd allowed the Mountaineers to kick a field goal in the fourth quarter and to hold on at the end for a 31-30 win.
Appalachian State will be a tough challenge and will be the second consecutive road contest for the Jags. Additionally it’s after the “Battle for the Belt.” This is one of the more unlikely games for a Jaguar win. But it’s never impossible.
November 20 at Tennessee
Tennessee will be favored in the game. It’s an SEC team vs a Group of Five team.
While the Jags and the Vols last faced off in 2013, the Jags gave them a run for their money in the 31-24 loss. The Jags even lead for a bit in Neyland Stadium.
The Jags had the ball 4th & goal at the Vols 8 yard line but an interception dashed the Jags hopes of a win over an SEC program. They would have to wait until 2016 for that.
Tennessee defeated Bowling Green to open the season 38-6. They’ll enter the game after hosting Georgia (currently ranked #2 in the nation).
It may be a good time for the Jags to visit Knoxville, but I wouldn’t depend on this game to get bowl eligible. A win in this game would be more of an attention-getter and a resume builder for postseason play. It would also be a good introduction of coach Wommack as a definite coach to watch in college football.
November 26 vs Coastal Carolina
The Jags finally end get a home game after three-consecutive road contests. However it will be a short week, but only by a day, as they face off on Friday after Thanksgiving.
The Jags and the Chanticleers have split their two meetings on the field. The Jags welcomed them to Mobile and full conference membership with a 31-28 win in 2018.
Last season they met for the second time with the Chanticleers ranked #15. The Chanticleers sent the Jags home from Conway with 23-6 loss.
They opened the season with a 52-14 win over The Citadel. In week two, they defeated Kansas in Conway 49-22. Last week they went into Buffalo and came away with a 28-25 win.
Both teams will go into the game losing one day of preparation, however the Jags will be the home team. Hopefully the Jags will already have earned bowl-eligibility, because needing to get a win against the Chanticleers would not be an ideal situation. But if the Chanticleers come in with a Thanksgiving hangover, maybe the Jags can capitalize with an upset win.
Gazing into the Crystal Football
(The teams listed in each section are by schedule, not by projected toughness.)
The easiest path to six wins: Texas State, Georgia Southern, ULM, Arkansas State. Win any three out of these four games and they are bowl-eligible.
The next best chance or the “we showed those prognosticators wrong”: Louisiana-Lafayette, Troy, App State. Along with going towards bowl-eligibility, winning any of these would be making a statement to the other programs in the conference that South Alabama is on the rise again.
The long shots or the “we stole the towels on the way out” wins: Tennessee, Coastal Carolina. Winning any of these games, especially Tennessee, would be a rather huge statement and would make for a particularly special season.
Final Thoughts
The Jags best chances for bowl-eligibility all line up over a four week stretch next month.
They could reach six wins before Halloween.
After Halloween the Jags strength of schedule really ramps up. The final four games will be the toughest challenge all season with the first three all on the road. They will be @Troy Nov 6, @App State Nov 13, @Tennessee Nov 20, then home vs Coastal Carolina Nov 26.
The competition in the first three games has been, admittingly, fairly soft. Additionally they have had plenty of struggles in those games, so getting to the six-win mark isn’t a given.
In order to achieve this lofty goal the Jags must continue to live by coach Wommack’s “neutral mindset” mantra.