Preview: South Alabama At Arkansas State
Kickoff: Saturday November 28, 2:00 pm
Venue: Centennial Bank Stadium Jonesboro, Arkansas
TV: ESPN3
Radio: Sports Talk 99.5FM, 96.1 The Rocket, iHeartRadio
South Alabama enter into their final road game of the season in the midst of a four-game losing streak. Their offensive line has turned into a sieve, leaking sacks at a frantic pace, 20 over the last four games and 33 for the season.
The Jaguars (3-6, 2-4 Sun Belt Conference) look to put an end to their losing streak and notch their second road win of the season. If successful, that would be the first time that the Jags have won two road games in a season since 2015.
The Arkansas State Redwolves (3-6, 1-5 SBC) have struggled this season well. Their biggest struggles have been on defense. Head coach Blake Anderson relieved his defensive coordinator of his duties earlier this season after a 59-52 win over Georgia State.
The Redwolves are coming off of a 47-45 loss at Texas State. This game against the Jaguars is the beginning of a three-game home stand and they would like nothing more than to start it off with a revenge win over the Jaguars and keep their hopes alive of getting back to .500 and get bowl eligible.
Arkansas State Offense
The Redwolves score an average of 31.4 points per game with 125.7 yards rushing and 352.6 yards passing per game. That’s an average of 478.2 yards per game of total offense.
With all that yardage, they are only converting 37.8% of their 3rd down attempts. However they have scored on 77% of their red zone trips with 63% of them being touchdowns. Not a bad stat to have.
They are also embracing their quarterback rotation. Layne Hatcher has gone 97-of-166 for 1,591 yards, 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. Logan Bonner has gone 139-of-229 for 1,495 for 13 touchdowns with 5 interceptions on the season.
Jonathan Adams Jr leads the receivers with 70 catches for 973 yards and 10 touchdowns. The next closest receiver has 34 catches for 436 yards and 5 touchdowns. Dahu Green has caught 32 passes for 542 yards and 5 touchdowns. Five other ASU players have caught double-digit passes on the season with six touchdowns combined.
Jamal Jones leads the running attack with 452 yards on 99 carries with three touchdowns. Lincoln Pare is next in line with 450 yards on 72 carries with a touchdown.
Against Texas State the Redwolves put up 654 yards of total offense. Jones rushed for 106 yards and wide receiver Jeff Foreman had 148 yards on three catches with a touchdown.
Arkansas State Defense
As mention above, the defense is a glaring deficiency on this team. So bad the coach Anderson let go of his defensive coordinator mid season.
The defense is allowing 39.6 points per game. They allow 316.6 yards passing and 168.1 yards rushing per game for an average of 484.7 total yards per game.
Opponents are converting 45.9% of their 3rd down attempts. They are also scoring 85% of the time when they reach the red zone. 67.5% of those red zone trips have been touchdowns. With numbers like that, will the Jags be able to put points on the board in the red zone?
Last weekend against Texas State they allowed 505 yards of total offense and could not prevent the game-winning score with :34 left in the game.
Linebacker Justin Rice is the leading tackler with 68 stops and also leads the team with seven sacks.
Keys to the Game
Offensive line
The offensive line play has been terrible. They haven’t been helped with the absence over the last two weeks by starters Jacob Shoemaker and Connor Estes due to Covid and contact tracing.
Last week Georgia State sacked Desmond Trotter seven times. They have allowed 20 sacks over the last four games and 33 sacks for the season.
If the offensive line continues to struggle to protect Trotter and establishing the run, then the Jags will likely add to their loss total.
Turnovers
Last week against the Panthers, the Jaguars as a team was +3 in turnover margin. They managed three interceptions and forced a fumble which they recovered. The Jags offense fumbled twice and only lost one of them.
On the season the Jags have only recovered 13 turnovers. So the four takeaways they recorded last Saturday is over 30% of their turnovers for the season! And despite being +3 last week, the Jags are -1 in turnover margin for the season.
The Jags need to keep generating turnovers. If they can keep up the positive numbers, then this can only give the offense more opportunities to put points on the scoreboard.
Points
The most obvious thing to win a game is to score points. Over the last four games the Jags have scored a measly 47 points, or an average of 11.75 points per game.
That’s not going to get it done.
The offense has to find a way to generate points and head coach Steve Campbell understands that. Arkansas State is a prime opportunity. Last year the Jags ended their nine-game losing streak with a 34-30 win over the Redwolves in their season finale.
It was a bit of a coming out party for Jalen Tolbert and Desmond Trotter. Tolbert caught 5 passes for 144 yards and four touchdowns. Trotter, in addition to the four touchdowns passes, rushed for 58 yards for an offense that ran for 216 yards on the ground.
Prediction
Arkansas State is a 7 point favorite and are able to score a lot of points.
The Jaguar defense hasn’t been playing bad, they just don’t get any offensive help. They held Coastal Carolina to well below their season average in the loss. They also held the Georgia State to 7 points through the most of three quarters. But down the stretch the defense allowing 24 points after the Jags had taken a 14-7 lead in the 3rd quarter.
Arkansas State and coach Anderson really need a win, the Redwolves want revenge for 2019, the Jags have never won in Jonesboro, and the Jags are struggling. I think the Redwolves win and unfortunately I also think they cover the spread.
But as always when I pick against South Alabama, I’d love to be proven wrong.
Go Jags!