Preview: South Alabama At Louisiana-Lafayette
Kickoff: Saturday November 14, 1:00 pm
Venue: Cajun Field, Lafayette, Louisiana
TV: ESPN+ Streaming
Radio: Sports Talk 99.5FM, 96.1 The Rocket, iHeartRadio
South Alabama (3-4, 2-2 Sun Belt Conference) will finish out their three-game road swing with a trip to Lafayette, Louisiana to face the Ragin’ Cajuns (6-1, 4-1 SBC).
Since Billy Napier came to Lafayette the Cajuns have steadily improved from a 7-7 (5-3 SBC), to 11-3 (7-1 SBC) which was the first double-digit win season in school history, and currently sit on top of the Sun Belt Conference Western division with their only loss being to Coastal Carolina.
They can pretty much wrap up the division this week with a win.
The Jags come into the game after a 23-6 loss at Coastal Carolina. The defense held the Chanticleers well below their season points average but the offense couldn’t muster more than a pair of field goals. They were even turned away on a 4th and goal at the 1 yard line.
Now head coach Steve Campbell and his team have dropped their last two games after a nice 3-2 start to the season and being 2-0 in conference play for the first time in school history.
However those three wins came against some struggling teams year. Their combined record is a mere 3-21.
While Desmond Trotter has seemed to have solidified his hold on the #1 spot at quarterback as we have not seen Chance Lovertich play any over the last two games, we’ve also seen Trotter get sacked 10 times over that same time span.
Carlos Davis has pretty much been the biggest ground threat by the Jaguar offense. Though Trotter can and does still run, he’s also been set back with the sack issue.
Through the air the Jags are still averaging 256.3 yards per game but, at least over the last two games, you’re not seeing a Jaguar receiver go over 100 yards receiving as you were earlier in the season.
It obvious that over the last two games the offensive line is struggling. And it’s not going to be helped by having two of their best having to sit out due to Covid and contact tracing this week. Jacob Shoemaker and Connor Estes will not be playing along with linebacker Quentin Wilfawn.
The running game is struggling, which makes the offense more one-dimensional. Trotter does not have time to let his routes develop. So you’re not seeing Jalen Tolbert or Kawaan Baker with 100+ yards and multiple touchdowns.
A one-dimension approach to the Cajuns probably will not turn out well either.
But while the offense is struggling, the defense has put up some good fights. UAB was the only game that really got out of hand.
Linebacker Riley Cole has really showed why he has earned all the accolades this season. He leads the conference with 72 tackles, 11 more than his nearest competitor who happens to be on the Cajuns defense.
Louisiana-Lafayette Offense
Seniors Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas picked right up where they left off last season as a pair of dynamic running backs. They have been joined by reshirt sophomore Chris Smith to make a three-headed beast of running backs. They have rushed for 5, 6, and 3 touchdowns respectively and combined for an average of 194 yards rushing per game.
Quarterback Levi Lewis manages the game well with timely connections through the air to help the offense to average 232 yards per game. With that they average 29.6 points per game.
Louisiana-Lafayette Defense
Napier’s defense loves to apply pressure and cause havoc. The team has 10 interceptions and 30 sacks on the season. That’s almost 1.5 picks and just over 4.25 sacks per game.
Linebacker Lorenzo McCaskill leads the Cajuns with 62 tackles, trailing only Riley Cole in that category in the conference.
If the Cajuns can pin their ears back and go all out for the Jaguar backfield, this could get ugly for the offense.
They allow 23.9 points per game, which is more than the Jags have allowed on average this season at 22.4.
Keys to the Game
Offensive line
The offensive line has got to play better. Allowing 10 sacks over the last two games isn’t good. Going up against a defense that has 30 sacks on the season is a recipe for disaster.
Everything an offense does starts with the offensive line. With coach Campbell being touted as an offensive line guru, some of that really needs to rub off this week if they want to continue to control their destiny in the SBC West.
Turnovers
First off, the Jags need to continue protecting the ball. They are -2 in turnovers, the fumble they lost last week to Coastal Carolina they got right back and in better field position.
They need to cause more turnovers and maybe even help jump start their offense by scoring defensively as well. The defense helped to get the offense with Devin Rockette’s 95 yard interception return for a touchdown against Louisiana-Monroe.
Red Zone Touchdowns
The offense is scoring touchdowns in the red zone only 52% of the time. They are 11-of-21. They are 18-of-21 overall in the red zone when you add the seven field goals they have settled for down there.
I felt like there were times last week when Campbell should have settled for a field goal instead of turning it over on downs. But when you are on the 1 yard line and you bring in your wildcat quarterback to take a snap in the shotgun, you’re basically telling the defense what you’re going to do. Big surprise, it didn’t work when Baker kept it and tried to run up the gut.
Let your quarterback take the snap under center, pick a gap and get that one yard for the touchdown.
Prediction
The Cajuns are a 16 point favorite at home in this game. Though they are 6-1 so far, they have only one game where they won by more than 10 points this season. That was their 31-14 season opening win over #23 Iowa State.
Also the Jags have been quite good against the spread this season.
I don’t think the Jags can get an outright win, but I do think they may cover. However with the unexpected loss of three players due to Covid, it may be more difficult. Also with an over/under of 55.5 points for the game, I’ll also take the under.
Go Jags!