Preview: Louisiana-Monroe At South Alabama
Kickoff: 6:00 pm, October 24
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL.
Television: ESPN+
Radio: Sports Talk 99.5 FM, 96.1 FM The Rocket, iHeartRadio app
The South Alabama Jaguars (2-2, 1-0 SBC) are flying high, though the mascot is a ground animal.
The Jags were able to rebound from their 42-10 home loss at the hands of UAB to break their two-game losing skid and open up conference play with a win. The 23 days between games was caused by a postponement of their annual rivalry game with Troy due to Covid-19.
Against Texas State (1-5, 1-2 SBC) they only trailed once early in the game and either led or was tied the remainder of the way.
Next up for the Jags are the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (0-5, 0-2 SBC).
The Warhawks enter the game after a 40-7 obliteration at the hands of Liberty on October 10. They worked themselves into a huge hole with special teams play (or lack thereof).
The Warhawks punt team allowed three touchdowns. The first came on a dropped snap in the end zone that Liberty recovered. Then they had a punt blocked for a touchdown along with a punt returned for a touchdown.
That doesn’t include a long punt return that set up another score for Liberty. That’s 27 points allowed because of their punt team (one PAT was missed).
Meanwhile South Alabama finally started to outdistance Texas State midway through the fourth quarter when they broke a 20-all tie with a touchdown pass to Kawaan Baker. Then iced the game with 1:09 left on a 44-yard field goal by Diego Guajardo.
ULM Offense
The Warhawks are primarily a passing team. They average 236 yards per game through the air. Their rushing game is very anemic with only 56.2 yards per game on average. Which is 292.2 yards of total offense per game.
That translates to a scoring average of 13.4 points per game and 15 first downs.
Quarterback Colby Suits may not run the offense as well as Caleb Evans did previously, but he has a strong arm. If Suits can get some success, he is known to go on some really hot streams and really toss the ball around the field.
ULM Defense
The Warhawk defense is allowing 429.4 total yards per game. Their biggest weakness has been their rush defense, they allow 262.2 yards per game on the ground compared to their 167.2 yards per game allowed through the air.
But they may return three defensive lineman who have missed the last three games due to injury. That would help out a defense that is already good.
ULM Special Teams
Well, as we mentioned previously, their punt team has been disastrous. Allowing three touchdowns to Liberty and a long punt return to set up a fourth score.
Georgia Southern also blocked two more punt attempts in the previous game.
True freshman Daniel Sparks has had to step in to handle punting duties for an injured Jared Porter. Warhawk head coach Matt Viator told the News Star that “he’s devoted more practice time to punting than at any time in his career.”
There is a chance that Porter could return for this game, which would further help the Warhawk team.
How the Jags Match Up
The Jaguars average 403 yards of total offense, 276.2 passing and 126.8 yards rushing per game. They also average 24 points and 21.5 first downs per game.
Defensively they allow 415 total yards, 271 yards passing and 144 yard rushing per game and they allow 27.5 points per game.
Texas State sat back and did not allow the Jags to go deep on them with fairly good success. It really wasn’t until the fourth quarter that the Jags really started to take control of the game. After their final go-ahead score, the Jags defense came out strong and denied Texas State another chance to tie the game.
Keys to the Game
Rushing
When the Jags can run the ball, the offense works much better. They keep the defense honest and open up passing and play action.
Carlos Davis set a new South Alabama single game record with 32 carries for 113 yards and a touchdown to lead the Jaguars rushing attack. That was his second-consecutive 100 yard rushing game too.
Look for Davis to get plenty of work again against the Warhawks while mixing in the other backs as well.
Offensive Line
The offensive line played better against Texas State, but now can they keep doing that consistently?
Hadon Merchant cost his team a touchdown early in the game against Texas State with a penalty. Though they still came away with a field goal, it’s not what you want to see out of a veteran lineman returning after missing several games due to injury.
Pass Defense
The Warhawks are a passing team. Be it by necessity or lack of talent to get their rushing game going, they are going to throw the ball.
The Jaguar secondary was hit hard by UAB with deep throws. If the Warhawks manage to exploit the secondary, it could cause problems for the Jags in the game.
Prediction
Before the beat-down in Lynchburg, the Warhawks played perennial Sun Belt Power Georgia Southern tough in Louisiana.
Prior to that they had to deal with players missing game time due to Covid. So the ULM team that comes into Hancock Whitney Stadium may not be the same team that many have seen earlier in the season.
With a week to regroup and prepare, they could be ready to play the Jags tough.
With a 14.5 point spread, I think the Jags will win the game outright but I don’t think they will cover. I think ULM may be able to eek out and cover the spread themselves.
Go Jags!