Preview: Tulane At South Alabama
Kickoff: 6:30pm CDT Saturday, September 12
Television Coverage: ESPN2
Radio: 99.5FM The Jag, 96.1FM The Rocket, iHeartRadio app
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The University of South Alabama football team made the most of their opportunity on the national stage on Thursday night. In doing so, they finally shed a couple of monkey’s off their back.
The nation-leading road losing streak was broken. The streak of season opening losses was broken. They also have their first two-game win streak (if you go back to the season finale of 2019) since 2017.
Add to that, they will be debuting their brand new $78 million (by last accounting) stadium and the Jaguars are looking to make another statement.
If it’s not obvious enough, the media department is pushing the #Something2Prove hashtag as well.
Next up is the Tulane Green Wave.
This will mark Tulane’s start to the season so they are a bit of an enigma right now. Head coach Willie Fritz is going into his 5th season in New Orleans after going 7-6 overall last season and a career record of 23-27 at the school.
Some Jaguar fans may remember him at Georgia Southern. Though he was only there two seasons, he led them to an undefeated conference schedule in their first year playing a Sun Belt Conference schedule.
However, they were not eligible to play in a bowl game as an FBS Transitional school.
But the two times he faced South Alabama he was victorious by a combined score of 83-23.
Fritz took over a team that had gone 3-9 the previous two season and began his rebuild. He has gone 4-8, 5-7, 7-6 and 7-6 in his four seasons at the helm with season-ending bowl victories the last two years.
Offense
Offensively, coach Fritz has adapted to his personnel. At Georgia Southern he ran an option attack. Now at Tulane he is running more of a spread attack that seems to throw the ball well enough to get by. But the running game definitely works.
Will Hall joined the program last season as the new offensive coordinator. His debut saw the offense finish 22nd in the nation in total offense and 30th in the nation in scoring. They also put up the 3rd most yards per game (449.3) and 3rd most points per game (33.1) in school history.
Quarterback and top rusher Justin McMillan is gone. He helped lead the team to an average of 243 yards rushing per game. However they have Keon Howard that looks to be the defacto starter.
Howard came to the Green Wave from Southern Miss. After sitting out a season he played in four games in 2019 and went 13-of-18 for 208 yards and two scores passing and one running. While he isn’t quite the runner that his predecessor was, he is ready to step in to push the passing game more while still adding some running ability.
But behind Howard there’s no experience, so if he’s not it then it may be a steep learning curve for someone and a rough go until someone can settle into the position.
The Green Wave’s top returning receiver is a senior that made 13 catches last season. So the receiving corps may be a bit of a work in progress as the season starts.
But if you’re facing a Willie Fritz team, you know they are going to run the ball well. Last season he had six player rush for 250 yards or more. Corey Dauphine rushed for 575 yards last season with seven scores with his speed. While he was in line for a big role in the offense, he is out for the season with a torn Achilles.
Freshman Tyjae Spears now looks to be the guy at running back and could very well be the most talented player on offense.
Amare Jones is a more all-around back. He averaged over six yards per carry on the way to 371 yards rushing with four scores. But he also played a bit as a slot receiver where he hauled in 34 passes for 367 yards and two scores. But wait, there’s more. He averaged 24 yards per kickoff return in his first two seasons and almost ten yards per punt return.
Defense
Defensively the Green Wave have had their losses from a year ago, but still return a veteran group and seven starters. They finished 4th in the American Athletic Conference in overall defense while allowing 26 points per game.
Despite not being healthy throughout the entire season their best defensive player, Patrick Johnson, still had a team-high four sacks, but was a significant drop off from the previous season’s 10.5 sacks.
Throw in a pair of defensive tackles that weigh 320 and 290 pounds and another 280-pound veteran who can play inside or out and they obviously have some beef up front.
What they have been missing is a pass rush.
They have to replace a big playmaker at safety, but they return Chase Kuerschen who lead the team with 76 stops.
At corner they return a veteran on one side and a former Florida State standout recruit, Kyle Meyers, is likely to start on the opposite side.
In what sounds like a pattern by now, Fritz loses a standout player yet returns a veteran and adds someone to fill the empty cleats. Gone is the top linebacker, but returning is a 6’2″ 230-pound Marvin Moody who has a way of getting into the backfield. Then they add a 230-pound juco transfer with experience to go along with the other players they have.
Keys to the Game
Big plays
The Jaguar defense needs to prevent big plays. They were very successful against what looked like an unprepared Southern Miss team, but Tulane should be a big step up in competition and cannot be taken lightly.
During the regular season, the Green Wave was 6-0 when they gained at least 7 yards per play. When they didn’t reach that, they were 0-6. The 2020 team may not need all those big plays to be as successful, but if they do reach that milestone they have proven they are hard to beat.
But in the same vein, South Alabama used big plays to defeat Southern Miss. It was only the third offensive play of the game when the Jags struck paydirt on a 73 yard touchdown catch and run by Jalen Tolbert.
Turnovers
The Jaguar offense will have to protect the ball. Desmond Trotter threw two interceptions in the opener, one due to being hit as he was throwing. But they didn’t put the ball on the ground.
The Green Wave defense had 12 interceptions last season. They also forced 17 fumbles, however they were only able to recover four of them. And only one fumble recovery over the final 11 games of the season.
Special teams
Special teams must improve.
While the Jags didn’t punt in the opening game, they are still lumped into this group for good measure.
A missed field goal and PAT along with a botched PAT had some fans on edge late in the game. USA converted a field goal attempt to essentially put the game out of reach, but a miss would have given USM a chance to tie with a touchdown and two-point conversion.
Between those errors, and a couple of ill-advised kickoff returns that didn’t even make it out to the 15 yard line, you can see where I’m going. While it didn’t hamper the Jags efforts against Southern Miss, it could in the future. If a bad return pins them back inside the 15 yard line, the offense fails to get a first down and is forced to punt, the opponent has a decent opportunity for excellent field position and a short field.
We hope the team spent some extra time between games working on these things.
Spread/Prediction
Tulane is a 9.5 point favorite in the game.
South Alabama appeared to be improved in the season opener against a Southern Miss team that seemed lost and looked undersized. The loss was enough to prompt coach Hopson to resign a few days later.
I think Tulane will still win, coach Fritz prepares his teams well and has something good going in New Orleans. But I think the Jags cover the spread to open their brand new home stadium. It may even be a nail biter at the end. It could easily be up to special teams to win or lose the game.
Go Jags!