Preview: South Alabama at Southern Miss
Kickoff: 8pm CDT Thursday, September 3
Television Coverage: CBS Sports Network
Radio: 99.5FM The Jag, 96.1FM The Rocket, iHeartRadio app
South Alabama fans have been waiting for a long time to finally square off against regional foe Southern Miss.
They’ve been waiting 10 years to be exact.
When the two teams finally kick off it will be 10 years to the day of the announcement of the home-and-home agreement between the two schools.
Southern Miss completed their fifth consecutive winning season in 2019. While the Golden Eagles are quite a bit removed from their 12-2 season in 2011 under Larry Fedora, head coach Jay Hopson looks to dethrone UAB from the top of the Conference USA West Division.
Offense
Jack Abraham returns for his third year as the teams starting quarterback. The senior has been selected as the conference’s first-team All-Preseason quarterback.
Abraham led the FBS in completion percentage as a sophomore and had the eighth highest completion percentage in college football history when he connected on 73.1% of his attempts.
As the full-time starter last year, he still completed 67.9% of his attempts for just shy of 3,500 yards. While he threw 19 touchdowns, he also threw 15 interceptions. That will have to improve for a successful 2020 season.
Abraham’s top receiver graduated last year but he returns Tim Jones, a preseason all-conference selection and a contender for CUSA’s best receiver. Last year he caught 73 passes for 902 yards, but his production ramped up late in the season.
Jaylond Adams was set to start on the other side from Jones, but decided to opt-out of the season altogether. With the addition of two juco transfers, the Golden Eagles still have some experienced options at receiver.
USM had a trio of running backs dividing up the carries. One went to the NFL and another opted out of the season. That left Kevin Perkins as the only returning back of the trio playing this season. Highly touted juco Don Ragsdale seems to have won the starting job and will look to help improve a rushing attach that finished the season with only 1,527 yards rushing.
Coach Hopson brought in new offensive coordinator Matt Kubik to improve the rushing game and score more than the 27 points per game that the 2019 team averaged.
All that is good, but the offensive line is where the offense starts. The 2019 squad was good in pass protection but was the worst in the nation in giving up tackles for loss with an average of seven per game. They return four of the five starters, which gives them lots of expectations up front especially if they can correct those problems from last year.
Defense
Defensively the Golden Eagles defensive coordinator Tim Billings is dealing with some massive turnover in front seven.
Despite the turnover up front, they return six of the top eight tacklers from last season. That defense allowed an average of 353 yards and 26 points per game. They allowed 17 points or fewer on five occasions.
The teams top pass rusher Jacques Turner was another player who opted not to play this season. Which leaves Eriq Kitchen, a hybrid defensive end/outside linebacker and one of many juco transfers, will be looked to step up as a defensive leader. They also look to 339-pound Von’Darious Freeman to cause some havoc and clog rushing lanes.
Swayzee Bozeman is the top returning linebacker with six tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, and two forced fumbles last season.
The Golden Eagles secondary is by far their strongest defensive unit in 2020, especially the safeties.
Rover Ky’el Hembry was selected to the CUSA All-Preseason team after finishing first on the team in total tackles. He also picked off six passes.
Keys to the game
Turnovers
The Golden Eagles were a turnover machine last season. They were 121st in the nation in turnovers with 26 giveaways and finished the season with a turnover margin of -11.
In the five games where their turnover margin was -2 or worse, they lost them all.
But the Jaguars were also very turnover prone. They had 22 give aways and a turnover margin of -6 themselves.
Offense
The USM defense was stingy last season. They ranked 1st in the conference and 18th in the nation against the run. They allowed only 1,506 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground for the year.
The USM offense is expected to be more balanced and score more points this season. Which means the Jags offense will have to take advantange of all scoring opportunities for a chance at the W.
Adjustments
With it being the first game of what have been a tumultuous year, it will be critical for the Jags to be able to make in-game adjustments and corrections. The spring practice period was lost to the pandemic and, while coaches think the team may be more fresh going into the season, they missed their 15 practices and the opportunity to learn and work over the summer on that feedback.
Spread/Prediction
The Golden Eagles are a 15.5 point favorite in the game. I was high on the team last year after their valiant effort against Nebraska, I’m not so high on the team out of the gate this season. The offensive line had problems last year yet most of the return this season, they have to replace Tre Minter’s production, and the defensive line is all fresh faces.
I think USM will ultimately win the game, but I think the Jags will score late to cover the spread. But feel free to prove me wrong!
Go Jags!